The playoffs are officially here. The Bills are the six seed heading to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars who are the three seed. It's not the first time these two have matched up in the postseason.
Get ready for the matchup with these top five storylines.
1. Josh Allen makes seventh playoff appearance
Quarterback Josh Allen is back in the postseason, marking his seventh consecutive appearance. He holds a 7-6 record in the postseason and made it to the AFC Championship Game twice in his career: once in the 2020-21 season and again in the 2024-25 season.
Heading into Sunday, Allen is ready to put his cape on and lead his offense into what's hopefully a deep playoff run. Coming off a loss in Week 17, ESPN NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky believes Allen is ready to put on a show.
"It's rare when we see Josh Allen play two stinkers in a row," Orlovsky said on One Bills Live. "That bodes well for Buffalo just being able to go punch for punch."
All-time in the playoffs, Allen's numbers rank with some of the best. He has completed 302 passes for 3,359 yards and 33 touchdowns, including eight rushing scores. He holds a 65.7 average completion rate and threw just four interceptions over 13 games.
In those appearances, the Bills have found a way to score lots of points with a 50% scoring percentage. Their 27.4 points per game average in the postseason since 2019 ranks fourth most over that span. One reason behind those points is their ability to string together big plays. Buffalo is top five with 47 plays of 20 or more yards, ranking third in the NFL. In carries for 10 or more yards, Buffalo is fourth with 46 plays.
The last two losses, both to Kansas City, were decided by three points. Aside from the Chiefs, the only teams that beat Allen in the playoffs were Houston and Cincinnati. The Texans are the only team of those three that punched their ticket into the postseason with the Bills.
Throughout the regular season, Allen led his team in the second half to success, coming back from double digit deficits three times: against the Ravens, Bengals and Patriots. While offensive coordinator Joe Brady said nothing about Allen's routine changes in the playoffs, the star quarterback still elevates his game. That superhero effort from the regular season won't be locked away in the postseason.
"He doesn't prepare any harder. He has a standard by how he does things," Brady said of Allen. "The greatest of the greats are somehow able to take their game to another level in the playoffs. Everything is faster in the playoffs, it's more physical. The reality of it is, we're not guaranteed another week; and when he raises his game, everybody else elevates their performance as well … Come Sunday, Josh Allen will be ready to go."
2. A best-on-best matchup
On Sunday, Buffalo faces a top run defense, putting its top rushing offense to the test.
The Bills finished the regular season No. 1 in rush yards per game with 159.6, and second in yards per rush (5.0). Running back James Cook also secured the rushing title following the conclusion of the 2025 regular season. Cook registered 309 carries for 1,621 yards and 12 touchdowns. He's tied sixth in the NFL in rushing touchdowns and second in average yards per rush with 5.2.
"A lifetime accomplishment. Great honor," head coach Sean McDermott said of Cook earning the title. "It's been a while since that happened here."
In Week 18, running backs Ray Davis and Ty Johnson were let loose as Cook took a backseat. Davis had 21 carries for 151 yards, and also had two receptions for 23 yards and one touchdown. He's mainly been used on special teams as a kickoff returner up until that point, showcasing his speed in different areas of the game. As for Johnson, he had 13 touches on Sunday for 36 yards and one touchdown. He also had two receptions for 20 yards and another score.
Against Jacksonville in the AFC Wild Card Round, though, Buffalo faces a No. 1 run defense in rush yards allowed per game (85.6). The Jaguars are also fifth in yards allowed per rush (3.9). They became the third team since 2000 not allowing a 75-yard rusher in one game.
"It's a very big defensive front … It's a penetrating defensive line," ESPN NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky said of Jacksonville on One Bills Live. "They set edges with their big defensive ends and then they get up the field … It's a defense that's not going to be schematically over-creative … They want to keep everything in front of them … You're going to have to be patient in your efficiency."
Linebacker Foye Oluokun leads the team in total tackles with 143, 59 more tackles than safety Andrew Wingard who is second on the team. Defensive end Josh Hines-Allen leads Jacksonville in tackles for loss with 12.
"You don't make it into the playoffs nowadays without being a strong defense that's able to take away something," offensive coordinator Joe Brady said. "Every defensive line and every defense is different in its own way … that presents a unique challenge week in and week out … It's going to be an opportunity and challenge for us, and I'm looking forward to it."
3. A historic matchup on the horizon
The Bills 17-year playoff drought ended during the 2017 season. Coincidentally, their AFC Wild Card Round matchup was against the Jaguars. Jacksonville defeated Buffalo 10-3 in that game.
Buffalo had 130 rushing yards and 148 passing yards in that contest to the Jaguars' 155 rushing yards and 87 passing yards. The Bills threw two interceptions and zero touchdowns, however, while Jacksonville had one receiving score and zero interceptions.
"First playoff appearance. I remember landing down there and seeing Bills fans at the airport," head coach Sean McDermott said. "This is x-amount of years later … First time in 17 years, you're like, 'Okay, I don't know what the future brings, [what] the future holds' … Seven years in a row now … You don't take it for granted."
All-time, the teams are tied at a 10-10 record. Sunday will be the tiebreaker and the end of one of their playoff runs.
The last time Buffalo and Jacksonville met was at Highmark Stadium in September 2024. The Bills beat the Jaguars in a decisive 47-10 win. Between the Wild Card game and the most recent meeting, Buffalo and Jacksonville had three close games.
"We've gone down there and haven't had success," Babich said. "It's our job to go down there and try to find that success."
In the 2018 regular season, Buffalo scraped by with a 24-21 win at home. Kicker Stephen Hauschka hit a 22-yard field goal with nearly three minutes left in the game. Quarterback Blake Bortles threw a 13-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Dede Westbrook, but the Jaguars didn't get the ball back to try and tie.
The Bills lost in 2021 and 2023 to Jacksonville. The Jaguars beat Buffalo 9-6 and 25-20, respectively. In both games, the Bills ran out of time to either tie or take the lead.
"You always try and learn from those situations," McDermott said. "At the end of the day, it's a new game. It's a different team this year."
4. Why the Jaguars have won 8 straight
The Jacksonville Jaguars are one of the hottest teams in football right now as they've won eight straight to earn themselves a home playoff game.
Since their win streak began in Week 11, the Jaguars are at the top of the league averaging 33.6 points per game (1st) and beating teams by an average of 19.1 points per game (1st). While their rushing offense is bottom 15 over that span with 109.1 rushing yards per game (20th), their passing offense is top 10 averaging 242.3 passing yards per game (8th).
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been a points machine with 24 offensive touchdowns over that span (1st). ESPN NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky believes Lawrence is the catalyst behind their win streak due to his increased confidence in his fifth NFL season.
"The difference in his belief in himself and how it plays out in the game," Orlovsky said on One Bills Live about the difference in Lawrence this year. "He has become a much more aggressive quarterback. A much more willing quarterback, confident quarterback, trusts what his eyes are seeing."
Orlovsky added that the QB is not thinking as much, which is allowing him to play better football.
The Jaguars did add a weapon to their offense at the trade deadline by trading for wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. Meyers has meant so much to their offense that they signed him to a three-year extension in December. In his nine games with Jacksonville, Meyers has 42 catches for 483 yards and three touchdowns.
"Jakobi Meyers has really been the guy that really has changed this offense," Orlovsky said on One Bills Live. "I think you can make the case that Jakobi Meyers has been the most important signing in-season or acquisition in the NFL this year. The confidence in his route-running, the trust that Trevor has in him…that really has changed the offense."
Orlovsky also said wide receiver Parker Washington has also been an important factor in their win streak as well. In the last four weeks of the regular season, Washington has been a top three receiver with 22 catches for 400 yards (3rd).
5. Why Sunday's game could come down to this
Valuing the football is of the utmost importance on Sunday. It's an obvious statement, but it's a factor that could determine who survives in the dance.
"It is a billion-dollar business, and the billion dollars is a little leather brown thing," defensive coordinator Bobby Babich said of the importance of the football. "And in the end, that's all that matters, is that little brown piece of leather. And the offense's job, simply put, is to take that little piece of leather and put it in that 10 by 53 and a third box, and our job is to not let them and then take it from them."
The Jaguars have been fantastic at forcing takeaways and taking care of the football this season. Jacksonville has a +13 turnover differential (3rd) thanks to their 31 takeaways (2nd) and 18 turnovers (tied 13th).
"They're very sound in what they do," head coach Sean McDermott said. "It makes for a big challenge for any team. That's one of the big boulders of playing good football is taking care of the ball and taking the ball away. They've done a great job with that this year."
One reason why ESPN NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky believes they've had 22 interceptions is because of the pressure they're sending on different downs.
"The good defenses don't wait (until) third down to do them," Orlovksy said of Jacksonville’s pressure plan. "So, you're going to get first down pressures where (Allen) is going to go, 'Wait, where did that guy just come from?'…That's why their backers have so many picks this year because they're in the line of scrimmage and then they're out of the line of scrimmage."
Since they've taken the ball away at such a high rate, Jacksonville has given their offense more shots at scoring points. They have 189 offensive drives, which is the third most in the league. They also lead the NFL with 110 points off turnovers.
While that area of the game will pose a challenge to any opponent, Buffalo has improved in terms of valuing the football down the stretch. Since Week 15, Buffalo ties for the least turnovers with one. Since Buffalo's bye week, the defense ranks top 10 with 15 takeaways (t-9th).
"I think we're just getting into a groove a little bit," Babich said of his defense's rise as of late. "…It is important that we are hopefully peaking at the right time. I've talked about that the whole year, make sure we're peaking at the right time. We've got a lot of work ahead of us. We're playing a really, really good offense, and we got to take care of us first to make sure we're ready to rock."
