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Buffalo Bills playoff predictions from NFL analysts

Jan 09, 2026 at 01:11 PM

Sydney Ciano

Seasonal writing associate

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals, Regular Season, December 07, 2025 at Highmark Stadium.

The Buffalo Bills start their playoff run after beating the Jets in Week 18. The AFC Wild Card Round between the Bills and Jaguars is set for 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jan. 11.

Days before the postseason begins, NFL analysts gave their thoughts and predictions on how Buffalo's playoff run will go.

Here's what they're saying:

'Allen is in his own tier' | Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer

Sheil Kapadia said that regardless of the Bills' flaws, there's no reason to stray from his preseason predictions. He has Buffalo beating the Jaguars, Broncos and Patriots to get to the Super Bowl, ultimately defeating the reigning champions, Philadelphia, to win it all.

"Allen is in his own tier. It's a tough draw that will almost certainly require three road wins. At the end of the day, I figured that this has been a weird NFL season, and Allen finally getting over the hump with this team might be a perfectly weird way to end it."

‘I wouldn't want to face a Bills offense’ | Bill Barnwell, ESPN

Bill Barnwell predicted a shootout win for Buffalo in the AFC Wild Card Round against Jacksonville, beating the Jaguars 28-24. He then sent the Bills to Denver for the Divisional Round, saying it's not a favorable matchup for the Broncos. Barnwell has Buffalo beating Denver 27-17. In the AFC Championship Game, it's an AFC East battle, according to Barnwell's predictions – and Buffalo lands on top of New England, 31-27.

"I wouldn't want to face a Bills offense using all four downs and willing to throw Allen into the run game with a chance to make it to the Super Bowl … I don't anticipate Maye and the offense shutting down in the second half again, but I'm not confident the Pats can stop Allen for four quarters."

‘This postseason, I’m trusting Josh Allen’ | Henry McKenna, FOX Sports

Henry McKenna didn't dismiss Jacksonville's win streak and being the hottest team in the NFL heading into the postseason, but he couldn't overlook quarterback Josh Allen's ability in willing his team to a win. McKenna picked the Bills in a 31-28 Wild Card Round final score.

"This postseason, I'm trusting in Josh Allen. There might not be a hotter team in the NFL than the Jaguars, with quarterback Trevor Lawrence reaching heights that seemingly only head coach Liam Coen (and Jakobi Meyers?!) could've helped the QB reach.

Allen and Sean McDermott aren't losing in the wild-card round, though."

Moving onto the AFC Divisional Round, McKenna chose Buffalo over the Broncos, the AFC No. 1 seed, 35-33.

"Here, we have two teams that have a knack for theatrical endings. But again, I'm trusting Allen.

Even with head coach Sean Payton's steady hand, I can't see the Broncos holding back Allen, who realizes just as well as anyone that this is his best shot at a Super Bowl. If the Bills make it this deep, they might even have defensive tackles Ed Oliver and Jordan Phillips and linebacker Terrel Bernard back."

He also predicted the Bills meet the Patriots for a third time in the 2025-26 season – and they beat New England a second time in a row, winning 27-24 in the AFC Championship Game.

"It'll be a nice story in New England for the Patriots to establish their relevance again. Maye and head coach Mike Vrabel's run will look a lot like what the Commanders did last year.

Once in the conference championship, though, the Bills will show up in a way that the Patriots will not. Buffalo will ride running back James Cook to a win. The Bills' defense will play out of its mind. And that'll be that."

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— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) January 9, 2026

‘I am favoring experience over momentum’ | The MMQB Staff, Sports Illustrated

Albert Brer, Connor Orr, Greg Bishop and Clare Brennan all chose the Bills to face the Rams in the Super Bowl. Many of them valued playoff experience and Allen's ability to elevate his play in the postseason.

"They've gotten better at running the ball. They've gotten better on defense. They have arguably the best player on the planet as it stands right now. So in a wide-open AFC field, where I think the seeding will quickly look irrelevant, I'm going with the most established team that has the best quarterback." – Breer

"Honestly, when a playoff bracket is as wide open as this one, I am going to simply manipulate the board in a way that delivers exactly what I want to see. I would like Josh Allen in the Super Bowl and I would like Sean McVay there, too." – Orr

"How to make sense of the AFC? You cannot. I picked the Bills because of Josh Allen. In tight games, in cold weather, do you like him? Or Bo Nix? Or Trevor Lawrence?" – Bishop

"Always go with the hot hand … unless generational talents like Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen are in the mix. Perhaps against my better judgment, I am favoring experience over momentum with my playoff predictions." – Brennan

‘This is a wide-open playoff’ | The Sporting News

Reporters from The Sporting News gave their picks as to which wild-card team is the biggest threat to win the Super Bowl. Two out of the seven chose the Bills.

"Kansas City isn't in the way this year. Josh Allen is 7-2 against everybody else in the playoffs – but the only thing holding us back is that Buffalo will have to prove it on the road. Allen is 0-4 on the road in the postseason and the path starts at Jacksonville. The Jaguars have allowed more than 20 points one time through a seven-game win streak." – Bill Bender

"The AFC bracket is loaded with up-and-coming, yet unproven quarterbacks — this is the best chance Josh Allen has ever had to reach the Super Bowl, even as a No. 6 seed. Buffalo's five-loss record doesn't concern me much, nor does the lack of a true WR1 or a defense that has struggled at times. With Allen, the Bills are capable of beating any team in the AFC." – Daniel Mader

Bender and Mader also chose Allen as their MVP. They said the only thing Allen doesn't have is a Super Bowl win, but the AFC playoff picture this postseason is a great path for him.

Teddy Ricketson and Ed Williams also said the Jacksonville Jaguars are the most likely to be upset.

"Looking at the first-round matchups for the top teams, though, Jacksonville will have to host Buffalo. The Bills went 12-5 this season and that was playing well below their potential. Yes, Buffalo has to hit the road, but if it all comes together for them as it can and Josh Allen looks like the player who won the MVP Award last season, it could easily be an early postseason exit for the Jaguars." – Ricketson

"Unfortunately for them, they draw Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills … Allen's ability to take over a game at any moment certainly can cause sleepless nights. And on top of that, James Cook was the league's leading rusher and gives them another threat to break off chunk plays. Trevor Lawrence will have to keep his hot streak going to keep pace with Allen, and the much-improved Jags defense will need to prove this isn't the same old Jags. It's not an impossible task, but the Jags likely would have preferred to see the Chargers or Texans." – Williams

With it all said and done, Bender, Mader and Williams chose the Bills as their AFC Champion and Bender went a step further, saying it's their year to win it all.

"Buffalo Bills beat Los Angeles Rams. Two wild-card teams? It's a risky pick, but this is a wide-open playoff. Defense matters, and the Rams had some late-season concerns. It's not just about Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford, but in the playoffs, the QBs take center stage. Would Stafford win a second Super Bowl? Or will Buffalo finally win a Super Bowl? Allen finally gets it done." – Bender

‘That big-game experience matters’ | Bill Bender, The Sporting News

Buffalo on the road isn't an easy path, but Bender thinks something else matters more in determining Sunday's outcome: experience. He favored the Bills 31-28 in this AFC Wild Card matchup.

"Jacksonville will be a tough out for the Bills in a rowdy atmosphere. The Jaguars are 4-1 S/U at home in playoff games in franchise history, and Liam Coen has done a masterful job as a rookie coach with Trevor Lawrence, who had 12 TDs and one interception in his last five starts. So why is Buffalo favored? Josh Allen can carry a playoff run even though he took a career-high 40 sacks this season. The Bills still have a running game around James Cook that will prove vital on the road, and the playoff experience matters. Allen is 0-4 S/U in road playoff games – but three of those losses were against Kansas City. That big-game experience matters – and Buffalo finds a way in the highest-scoring game of the weekend."