The Buffalo Bills head into the final week as the No. 7 seed in the AFC and are still in play to be the No. 5 or No. 6 seed depending on how the Week 18 results shake out.
According to Next Gen Stats, the Bills have the highest chance to be the No. 6 seed with a 38% probability. Buffalo has a 35% chance to be the No. 7 seed and a 27% chance to be the No. 5 seed.
In the Wild Card round, the matchups are as follows for each seed: 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5.
The table below has the updated AFC standings.
Here's how the Bills can earn their seed (not including ties).
5 seed
The Bills can rise to the No. 5 seed with a win over the Jets and losses by the Texans (vs. Colts) and Chargers (at Denver).
6 seed
The Bills can rise to the No. 6 seed with a win and a loss by the Texans OR Chargers.
OR Bills win + Jaguars loss (vs. Titans) + Houston win + Chargers win strength of victory/strength of schedule tiebreaker over Buffalo/Jacksonville.
7 seed
A Bills loss to the Jets means Buffalo stays put at No. 7.
A Bills win + wins by the Chargers, Texans and Jaguars would also keep Buffalo at the 7-seed.
Tiebreakers
- Houston is ahead of the L.A. Chargers and Buffalo based on head-to-head sweep (2-0).
- The Chargers are ahead of Buffalo based on common games record (5-1 to the Bills' 3-3).
Week 18 Team Updates
Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh tells reporters that QB Justin Herbert and other starters will rest in Week 18.
Bills head coach Sean McDermott says team is still deciding its roster plans for Week 18
