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Bills Roundtable: Over/under statistical projections


Bills analysts Chris Brown and Donald Jones take a look at potential statistical milestones and discuss whether the select Bills players can hit those milestones this season.

Individual players

1,200 rushing yards …

Donald Jones: Over LeSean McCoy.LeSean McCoy is still one of the best dual threat running backs in the NFL. In 2016, he posted just over 1,600 total yards from scrimmage.  He will be the focus of the offense this year especially with Tyrod having to get used to the new wide outs. He will also benefit from the zone running scheme.  He will rush for 1,400 yards if he plays in every game.

Chris Brown:  Over LeSean McCoy. McCoy surpassed this figure last year. I believe he can be even more productive in the new offensive scheme.**

90 passer rating …

Jones: Over for Tyrod Taylor. In 2016 Tyrod Taylor posted a passer rating of just under 90.  I think the new play-action scheme will help him go above 90 as long as he is used correctly and he uses the tight ends more.

Brown: Over for Tyrod Taylor. With shorter high percentage pass plays a bigger part of the attack, I believe Taylor's completion percentage will be higher and that'll raise his passer rating.

10 total touchdowns …

**Jones: *Over for LeSean McCoy. *LeSean McCoy had 14 total touchdowns in 2016.  He will end up with 14 or more total touchdowns this year if he plays in 16 games.

Brown: Under for LeSean McCoy. I'm going under here mainly because Mike Tolbert will rob some goal line carries from McCoy to keep him fresh all season.

3,500 passing yards …*

Jones: Under for Tyrod Taylor. Tyrod Taylor passed for just over 3.000 yards in his 2016 campaign.  In 2015, he passed 3,035 yards. With the departure of Sammy Watkins and not knowing who the deep threat on this team will be this year, I have to take the under. I can see him finishing right around 3,000 yards.

Brown: Under for Tyrod Taylor.I believe Taylor will be under knowing the passing game emphasizes short timing routes and the run game is still the featured part of the attack.

1,000 receiving yards …

Jones: Under for Charles Clay. Sammy Watkins would have been the Number one receiving threat in the 2017 campaign.  With his departure and a fully revamped receiving room, I see Charles Clay being the number one receiver for the Bills.  I think he will end up with 800 yards.  The rest of the receivers will post for 700 yards or less.

Brown: Under for Jordan Matthews.Jordan Matthews' has come close to 1,000 before, but knowing this offense will likely run more than they throw I'm going under.

25 passing touchdowns …

Jones: Under for Tyrod Taylor. This Bills offense will be a run first offense.  The Bills have one of the most mobile QBs in the NFL. They also have one of the most talented running backs in the NFL.  Combine that with the addition of Mike Tolbert and Pat Dimarcco, it's hard to envision them throwing for 25 or more TDs.

Brown: Under for Tyrod Taylor. Again I'm going under knowing the pass game serves as a complement to the run game.

10.0 sacks …

Jones: Over for Jerry Hughes. The defensive line has expressed how excited they are to be back in this 4-3 scheme.  They haven't just talked about it, it has showed on the field in the preseason.  If everyone is healthy and playing well Jerry Hughes will go 10 sacks.

Brown: Over for Jerry Hughes. Back in a 4-3 and with Shaq Lawson on the other side, I think Hughes for can eclipse the 10-sack mark.

5 interceptions …*

Jones: Over for Tre'Davious White. Last year Stephon Gilmore finished the season with five interceptions.  The defensive front is looking like it will back to 2014 form.  If that is true I can see someone on the back end of the defense going above five interceptions.  Tre'Davious White will see his fair share of passes coming his way until he proves that he can shut teams down.

Brown: Over for Micah Hyde. Hyde is opportunistic. With Buffalo's pass rush he should hit this number or go over it.

1,400 all-purpose yards …

Jones: Over for LeSean McCoy. The Buffalo Bills offense is built around Lesean McCoy.  He is very versatile and will be used in many different ways this year.  He will line up in the slot, outside, and catch passes out of the backfield.  He will go over 1,000 yards rushing.  Shady will post over 1,500 yards all purpose.

Brown: Over for LeSean McCoy. Knowing McCoy is going to be a more featured component of the passing game, 1,400 all-purpose yards should be easy.

Team categories

21 points per game allowed …

Jones: Under. The 2016 Buffalo Bills defense gave up 23.6 points a game.  The 2017 defense in a different scheme, look much improved.  I think they will be a bend but don't break defense.  They will only average 20 points per game.  They will have to play well all season as they will face some of the best QBs in the NFL. 

Brown: Under. With the way the defense performed in the preseason, under 21 per game seems realistic.

390 total points …

Jones: Over 390 total points. The Buffalo Bills offense finished the season top 10 in the NFL scoring 399 points.  In my opinion they have the same amount of talent as last year's team if not more.  They will need to score above 390 points again this year.  If shady is healthy, they will score over 390 points.  He helps clear things for everyone else.  

Brown: Over 390 total points. Because I think their defense will give them more opportunities this season.

1 return touchdown …

Jones: Over. Brandon Tate has been a good returner for the Bills special teams units.  In 2016 he didn't score any touchdowns but he had many good returns.  He has showed this preseason that he is ready for another big year.  He will score one or more return touchdowns this year.

Brown:  Over 1 return touchdown. Between special teams and defense, three is probably the number.

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