Why the Bills stand out in a 'toss up' AFC playoffs — it's more than just the QB

Jan 10, 2026 at 07:00 AM

Alec White

Content Manager

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets, Regular Season, January 04, 2026 at Highmark Stadium.

The journey to the Super Bowl isn't always paved with bye weeks and home crowds. Some of the league's most memorable postseason runs have come from teams forced to take the long way.

In recent years, January football in Buffalo has come with a certain expectation — a near-frozen home turf, a thundering crowd dressed in blue and red. But this postseason looks different. For the first time since Josh Allen's playoff debut in January 2020, the Bills are entering the postseason as a road wild card team, facing a harsher path on paper and fewer guarantees.

Barring extreme circumstances, Buffalo's most likely path to Super Bowl LX would have to go through Jacksonville, Denver and potentially New England. If so, it would mean three road games in three weeks, over 2,600 miles flown and matchups against teams with a combined 41-10 record.

"We're going on the road for the first time in a long time in the wild card," QB Josh Allen said.

But different doesn't always mean disadvantaged. The road wild card label changes the route — not the destination.

A prevailing narrative is that if the Bills make a playoff run, it will be because of their all-world talent at QB. And while Josh Allen is a driving force of the team's success, he isn't the only driving force.

A sharpened mentality — 'Lay it all on the line'

The path may look different this January, but the Bills have been preparing for this kind of road long before the bracket was finalized.

If you're looking for reasons to believe the Bills can rattle off three consecutive road wins, look no further than the last three games away from Highmark Stadium. All have been wins, two of which are against playoff teams from the AFC in New England and Pittsburgh.

"It's tough to go on the road three games in a row, but certainly this Bills team is capable of doing it," said former Bills center Mitch Morse on One Bills Live this week.

For offensive linemen specifically, there's an added juice to hearing an opponent's raucous crowd. While Bills home crowds are silent when the offense has the ball, playing away from Highmark can provide a jolt of pre-snap energy.

"Playing at home, it has its perks," Brown explained. "But being dead quiet out there when you're doing your job is — I wouldn't say it really gets me out of bed in the morning. But like playing against loud crowd in the hostile environment, that's good football."

When you're boarding planes and checking into hotels, the focus narrows to gameplans, walkthroughs, and execution. Veteran teams understand how valuable that rhythm can become, and Buffalo has leaned into it.

"You realize you don't have to go out there and do anything spectacular or do anything better than you've already done it. Just fall back to the level of your preparation. We know how to execute. We know what it's like to work hard," said tight end Dawson Knox.

The Bills pride themselves on being a tight-knit group from beginning to end. That bond keeps the team focused and confident when adversity hits. When the postseason starts, all the focus will be turned inward.

"Listening to the outside world and listening to anything that could derail you from your process, it could stress you out. We're here because of our talents," left tackle Dion Dawkins said. "We're here because of our hard work. And don't think of anything different, right? It's a one game season. Now, lay it all on the line and play with no regrets."

'Been there, done that' — playoff experience still matters

The AFC playoff picture is loaded with talent, but not with postseason resumes. Outside of Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen, the five other quarterbacks in the field have combined for just three career playoff wins.

That doesn't diminish their skill. It just means they haven't accumulated the scars or the situational reps that define January football.

"Advantage to the guys that have been there and done that," said three-time Super Bowl-winning head coach Bruce Arians on The Pat McAfee Show. "The Josh Allens and Aaron Rodgers."

Denver may enter as the No. 1 seed with a Super Bowl-winning head coach in Sean Payton, but second-year QB Bo Nix was one-and-done in his rookie postseason after last year's defeat at Buffalo.

Several contenders are leaning on young quarterbacks or first-year playoff starters. In a one-possession game, that inexperience could matter. While the Bills are the No. 6 seed, the uncertainty of how the teams above them will handle leads NFL analysts to believe the AFC is wide open.

"I still believe that the AFC is a toss up," said NFL on Fox Analyst Greg Olsen. " I could make a strong argument for why every single one of those teams could win the whole thing — and why they couldn't."

Postseason margins tend to reward those who have seen the stage before and aren't overwhelmed by it.

"The thing the Bills have in their favor is that they've been there, done that in regard to playoff games," Morse said.

Every team in the AFC bracket has strengths and flaws. Experience doesn't guarantee success, but it raises the floor.

Buffalo enters this postseason with a core that has felt the weight of January games, navigated elimination scenarios, and won high-leverage moments. That familiarity allows the Bills to operate with a level of confidence that isn't manufactured — it's earned.

A Playoff Identity

If playoff football has a formula, it usually starts with two ingredients: run the ball, and stop the pass. The Bills have evolved into a team built to do both.

Since 1950, the Bills are one of five teams to enter the playoffs with the No. 1 ranked rushing offense and No. 1 ranked passing defense. The last three teams with this distinction, the 2009 Jets, the 2014 Seahawks and 2017 Jaguars, all reached their conference title game. Seattle went on to reach the Super Bowl.

The relationship between the two phases is what gives Buffalo its postseason identity. A multi-dimensional offense forces defenses to honor the run, and a disciplined pass defense keeps games from becoming track meets. This is a different profile from Bills teams of previous years — less reliant on explosive passing, more comfortable in low-possession, high-leverage games.

"There's an emphasis on each drive a little more, and just knowing that every single drive matters in the playoffs, especially when you're going against good teams and good quarterbacks like we're going against this week, points are at a premium," Josh Allen said.

Josh Allen is still the great equalizer

Buffalo's postseason formula for success wouldn't be complete without quarterback Josh Allen.

When the margin for error shrinks, quarterbacks define the game. Allen is a player whose combination of size, arm talent, and mobility makes him uniquely equipped for January football.

In the AFC playoff field, few quarterbacks can match his dual-threat capability, and fewer still combine it with experience under pressure. Allen doesn't just execute the plan; he improvises when the plan breaks down — a trait that has defined his best postseason moments.

"Doing whatever it takes to get the job done. Sometimes you got to put your body on the line," Allen said. "Just having that can't be denied mindset."

Historically, Allen takes his game to another level in the playoffs, boasting a 33-6 touchdown/turnover ratio and has averaged the most total yards per game (311) in NFL playoff history (min. 10 starts).

Even when not in the friendly confines of Highmark Stadium, Allen is still ever so poised. He has posted 355 total yards per game, nine total TDs, one INT in four road playoff games.

"This is how he is every year at this time of year. He's very dialed in, really focused and honed in on his process and what he needs to do," head coach Sean McDermott said.

Buffalo may be taking the long way this postseason, but with Josh Allen behind center, the route can still lead toward the same destination.