The Buffalo Bills (13-5) are 1.5-point underdogs against the Denver Broncos (14-3) in this AFC Divisional game at Empower Field at Mile High. The game will air on CBS at 4:30 pm.
Here are some additional notes for Saturday's AFC Divisional clash:
- Bills are looking to advance to consecutive AFC Championship games for first time since 1990-93
- Denver is looking to win its first postseason game since 2015 (Super Bowl)
- Denver head coach Sean Payton is 4-0 in the playoffs when coming off a bye week
- Bills will attempt to become the fourth No. 6 seed to advance to a conference championship game in the last 10 years
- Josh Allen is 3-1 when facing the NFL's team leader in sacks (Denver in 2024, Pittsburgh 2019-2021)
Josh Allen knows the clock is ticking louder and louder on his chances to get to a Super Bowl. This may be his best chance yet to make it, especially without Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow in the playoff field. While the future is extremely bright for the Broncos, this year could end up being another stepping stone toward the ultimate prize.
Florio's pick: Bills 24, Broncos 21.
Simms's pick: Bills 24, 21.
A rematch of last year's playoff showdown is in store, and while Denver has home-field advantage this time around, I'm not betting against Josh Allen.
As good as Denver's pass rush is, Buffalo's O-line remains elite, and Allen is coming off one of his best playoff starts to date.
The Bills' defense has proven it will bend but not break, so I'll take Buffalo to survive the Mile High City.
Pick: Bills
This game is all about Josh Allen vs. the Denver defense. That defense is special, but we've seen teams with good quarterback play have success against them. Allen was good last week against the Jaguars. The Bills have run-defense issues, but the Broncos don't run it well. That means it's all about Bo Nix. Can he make the plays to win it? I think in the end, Allen will make the plays to pull off another tough road victory.
Pick: Bills 23, Broncos 21
Denver isn't getting respected as a No. 1 seed with Buffalo opening as road favorites as a No. 6 seed. That will be some bulletin-board material for Sean Payton's team, which has the defense to give Josh Allen more trouble on the road than Jacksonville did.
The Bills' defensive holes will show up more with a game Bo Nix and the Broncos will avoid their usual slow offensive start. Allen can do only so much to save his team and Nix leans on having the better all-around system and coaching.
Pick: Broncos win 27-24.
The Broncos were 8-1 S/U at home this season, have a distinct home-field advantage at Empower Field at Mile High, and they allow the fewest yards per game (278.2 yards per game). Sean Payton has built this team around defense and efficient play from Bo Nix. Denver allowed 17.8 points per game at home, but that comes with an even turnover ratio.
Why are the Bills being picked here? It's the Josh Allen factor. Buffalo is 3-4 S/U when he is sacked three or more times in a game this season. Allen had 306 total yards and three TDs at Jacksonville – and he took one sack. The Bills won the turnover battle, and that will be the same recipe for success against Denver. Buffalo beat the Broncos 31-7 in the AFC Wild Card round last season. This is a chance for Nix to earn his first playoff victory, but we're sticking with our Super Bowl pick.
Pick: Bills 26, Broncos 21
What we're hearing on the Bills: Buffalo is trying to make it to a second straight AFC Championship Game and the third of QB Josh Allen's career. But that will be a tough task for a Bills offense dealing with a plethora of wide receiver injuries (Tyrell Shavers, Gabe Davis, Joshua Palmer). Allen is also banged up (right foot, left knee and right finger injuries) but was a full participant in Wednesday's and Thursday's practices. Protecting Allen will be a top priority, especially against a Broncos defense that had 68 sacks in the regular season (tied for fifth most since 1963, when sacks were first tracked). -- Alaina Getzenberg
What we're hearing on the Broncos: There's a double dip of postseason drama for Denver. For some fans, Allen will always be the one that got away because the Broncos and then-GM John Elway didn't draft him in 2018. Add that to the Bills shoving the Broncos out of the playoffs a year ago in a 31-7 wild-card win. The Bills bring the league's No. 1 rushing attack (159.6 yards per game) and the NFL's leading rusher in James Cook III (1,621 yards) this time around. Two of the three teams that beat the Broncos this season (the Colts and Chargers) rushed for more than 100 yards. -- Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: It's no secret that run defense is the Bills' weakness. They rank 31st in EPA allowed per designed run. Can the Broncos capitalize? Denver is recording just minus-0.04 EPA per designed run, which is well below its 0.12 EPA per dropback. And the Broncos lean pass heavy. Denver has the fifth-highest pass rate over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. -- Walder
Bold prediction: Broncos RB RJ Harvey has his first 100-yard game as the team prioritizes bleeding the clock and winning field position against the explosive Bills offense. Harvey's career high is 75 yards, but with J.K. Dobbins (foot) absent, it's time for the rookie to power the offense. -- Solak
Matchup X factor: Bills WR Brandin Cooks. He has seven receptions for 159 yards in his past two games. Cooks is a vertical stretch target for Allen and will have opportunities to win downfield versus the Broncos' man-heavy defense. The Bills will need to create explosive plays to pull off the upset. -- Bowen
One intriguing bet: Under 46.5. Buffalo can move the ball, but it will face a Denver defense with the best red zone efficiency rate in the league (42.6%). The Broncos struggle to finish drives on offense, which means fewer touchdowns from both sides and longer possessions. -- Maldonado
Officiating nugget: The Broncos were flagged for an NFL-high 20 defensive pass interference penalties this season, including eight by CB Riley Moss. Their aggressive nature helps in many instances, but it cost them 350 yards in the regular season. -- Seifert
Maldonado's pick: Broncos 20, Bills 17
Moody's pick: Broncos 27, Bills 24
Solak's pick: Broncos 19, Bills 13
Walder's pick: Broncos 27, Bills 21
FPI prediction: DEN, 50.7% (by an average of 0.4 points)
Scroll to see the best photos from Thursday's practice as the Buffalo Bills prepare to face the Denver Broncos.
Dion Dawkins (73), Damar Hamlin (3). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Sean McDermott, James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Andre Jones Jr. (75). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Damar Hamlin (3), DaQuan Jones (92). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Deone Walker (96). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Christian Benford (47). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Christian Benford (47). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Sean McDermott. Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Sean McDermott. Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Damar Hamlin (3), DaQuan Jones (92). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taron Johnson (7). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taron Johnson (7). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Deone Walker (96). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Reid Ferguson (69). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86), Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dawson Knox (88), Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Shane Buechele (6). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Shane Buechele (6). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Christian Benford (47). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (62), Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (62), Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (62), Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Darnell Savage (25). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Brandin Cooks (18). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17), Mitchell Trubisky (11). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17), Shane Buechele (6). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17), Shane Buechele (6). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Curtis Samuel (1). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Curtis Samuel (1). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mecole Hardman Jr. (16). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mecole Hardman Jr. (16). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mecole Hardman Jr. (16). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mecole Hardman Jr. (16). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Brandin Cooks (18). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Curtis Samuel (1). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Sam Franklin Jr. (28), Dane Jackson (23), Damar Hamlin (3). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taron Johnson (7). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Darnell Savage (25). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Darnell Savage (25). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Tre'Davious White (27). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
A.J. Epenesa (57). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Travis Clayton (67). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Spencer Brown (79). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Curtis Samuel (1). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Frank Gore Jr. (20). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Phidarian Mathis (72). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joey Bosa (97). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Darnell Savage (25). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
A.J. Epenesa (57), Alec Anderson (70). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Jordan Hancock (37), Taron Johnson (7), Cole Bishop (24). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17), Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joey Bosa (97), A.J. Epenesa (57). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Spencer Brown (79). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dion Dawkins (73), Damar Hamlin (3). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dorian Williams (42). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Larry Ogunjobi (99). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Darnell Savage (25). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taron Johnson (7). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dane Jackson (23). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Reggie Gilliam (41). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Connor McGovern (66). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86), Curtis Samuel (1). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86), Curtis Samuel (1). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Spencer Brown (79). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Spencer Brown (79), Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dion Dawkins (73), David Edwards (76). Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Sean McDermott. Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Sean McDermott. Buffalo Bills Divisional Round, January 15, 2026 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Davenport: Broncos (+1.5)
This may be the hardest game of the weekend to predict.
If there was reason to believe the Broncos could run the ball consistently against Buffalo's Jekyll-and-Hyde defense and take pressure off Bo Nix and an inconsistent Denver passing game, it would be far easier—but the quarterback is going to have to make plays against Buffalo's top-ranked pass defense.
Denver's defense is going to be the story of this game, though, for a number of reasons.
The first is a run defense that can do what the Jaguars did a week ago and slow down Bills running back James Cook. The second is a seventh-ranked pass defense that is going to make throwing the ball far harder than last week. The third is a smothering pass rush that led the NFL (by a wide margin) in sacks with 68 in the regular season.
O'Donnell: Bills (-1.5)
Sean Payton is 4-0 in his playoff career coming off a bye week. He is, however, only 1-3 in his last four postseason games and 0-1 as Broncos coach—Denver lost to Josh Allen and the Bills at Buffalo in the Wild Card Round last year.
Home-field advantage matters here as the Broncos were 8-1 at Mile High this season, but only one of those home wins came against a playoff team (not counting Week 18 when LAC rested its starters).
The Broncos went 3-2 against other playoff foes this year, and one of those wins was against the Texans in a game that C.J. Stroud suffered a concussion early in the second quarter—incidentally, the last time Houston lost this season. All that is to say, it's hard to trust these Broncos at this time.
Josh Allen is the NFL's ultimate X-factor playing right now. The flawed Bills have to take the hardest road, literally on the road, no matter how far they advance, but sometimes that gauntlet is exactly what a team needs.
Getting points is a bonus in this forced-pick scenario, but Buffalo wins outright as the Bills continue their Super Bowl march.
Predictions
Bills: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
Broncos: Davenport, Sobleski
Why Gennaro picked the Broncos: What are the benefits of backing the Broncos in this spot? Well, you get the AFC's No. 1 seed … returning to health after a week of rest … playing at home in the mile-high air … boasting a Super Bowl-winning coach and a feisty defense that's the most dominant unit in this matchup.
What are the benefits of backing the Bills? You get Josh Allen.
OK, in reality, I know it's not that simple. But for the second straight week, Buffalo has this simpleton distilling all matchup analysis down to one question: Do you take the better team or the best player? The player made this entire picks posse look stupid last week, proving our unanimous selection of Jacksonville wrong. So, what's different about this week's opponent? Denver's defense is a step up in class. Not only can the Broncos replicate the Jaguars' stifling effort in ground control -- Jacksonville just limited NFL rushing king James Cook to 3.1 yards per carry -- but they've spent all season terrorizing opposing passers. Comfortably leading the league in sacks (68), pressures (285, per NGS) and QB hits (164, per PFR) during the regular season, Vance Joseph's unit brings waves of heat from all angles. That is a frightening thought for Buffalo at this juncture, considering Allen's battered body seems like a minefield of pain. Now, Denver's offense is nowhere near as imposing. Bo Nix remains a wild card -- not just game to game, but quarter to quarter -- though I can't see Sean Payton putting this contest on his second-year QB's right arm. While Nix attempted the most passes of any quarterback during the regular season -- a stat that surprises me every time I see it -- the Bills have one of the worst run defenses in the entire league. The Jags averaged a whopping 6.7 yards per rush this past Sunday, but Liam Coen inexplicably stopped smashing the gash button. Payton won't make that same mistake.
In last year's playoffs, the Bills ended Denver’s season in Buffalo. I expect the Broncos to return the disfavor in Denver. But, of course, I'm fully prepared for Josh Allen to make me look stupid. Again.
