The Buffalo Bills (12-5) are a 1.0-point favorite in Sunday's Wild card game against the Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) in EverBank Stadium. The game will air on CBS at 1 pm.

Here are some additional notes for this AFC playoff battle:

• Jacksonville has won 8 consecutive games
• Bills have won 5 of their last 6 games
• Bills are 0-2 in the postseason against Jacksonville
• Jacksonville is 3-0 in the Wild Card round all-time
• Buffalo is 5-3 on the road in 2025
• Jacksonville is 7-2 at home in 2025
• Buffalo has not won a road playoff game since Jan. 17, 1993 at Miami (29-10)

Bill Bender | Sporting News

Jacksonville will be a tough out for the Bills in a rowdy atmosphere. The Jaguars are 4-1 S/U at home in playoff games in franchise history, and Liam Coen has done a masterful job as a rookie coach with Trevor Lawrence, who had 12 TDs and one interception in his last five starts. So why is Buffalo favored? Josh Allen can carry a playoff run even though he took a career-high 40 sacks this season. The Bills still have a running game around James Cook that will prove vital on the road, and the playoff experience matters. Allen is 0-4 S/U in road playoff games – but three of those losses were against Kansas City. That big-game experience matters – and Buffalo finds a way in the highest-scoring game of the weekend.

Pick: Bills 31, Jaguars 28

ESPN

What we're hearing on the Bills: Coach Sean McDermott has never won a road playoff game in his Bills tenure (0-5). In the four games with QB Josh Allen, the Bills' defense has been the statistical difference on the road versus at home (33.5 points per game allowed on the road and 19.8 allowed at home). The team is embracing this challenge. "Being able to just have that mentality of it's you and your guys versus everybody else. We embrace that, and I mean, we're excited. We could play anywhere," DE Greg Rousseau said. -- Alaina Getzenberg

What we're hearing on the Jaguars: The headlines might be about the QBs, but this game likely will be decided on the ground: the Jaguars' top-ranked run defense versus the league's leading rusher in James Cook III. The Jaguars didn't allow a 100-yard rusher in the regular season. "It's a challenge at every level of the defense, and the running back obviously is elite," defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile said. "Cook does a tremendous job of finding cracks. You look at some of the stuff on tape, there's nowhere to go, and he pops through there." -- Mike DiRocco

Stat to know: The Jaguars have a 67.8% pass block win rate, which ranks ninth best but is by far the best for a Jaguars team with QB Trevor Lawrence under center. A part of that solution? Cole Van Lanen, who took over at LT in Week 13 and has a 92% pass block win rate, which is 22nd best at the position and an upgrade over Walker Little. -- Walder

Bold prediction: Bills WR Gabe Davis, who played for the Jags in 2024, will score a touchdown in his revenge game. The Bills use Davis as a short-yardage and red zone threat because of his 6-foot-2, 225-pound frame. If they can't run the ball in and need to drop back, Davis will be Allen's preferred target. -- Solak

Matchup X factor: Bills CB Taron Johnson. His ability to get to depth in Buffalo's foundational zone coverages is key versus a Jaguars passing game that features deep in-breaking concepts. Here, Johnson can close the intermediate windows, which will limit Lawrence's explosive play ability. -- Bowen

One bet to consider: UNDER 51.5. Buffalo allows the fewest opponent plays per game and has a run-heavy offense. The Jaguars' offense is efficient but not fast. -- Maldonado

Officiating nugget: Referee Brad Allen's crew threw the fewest flags per game this season (12.9). That could help the Jaguars, who were the NFL's third-most penalized team (9.3 per game). The Bills were tied for the sixth fewest at 6.8 per game. -- Seifert

Maldonado's pick: Bills 27, Jaguars 20

Moody's pick: Jaguars 31, Bills 27

Solak's pick: Jaguars 23, Bills 21

Walder's pick: Bills 34, Jaguars 30

FPI prediction: JAX, 51.5% (by an average of 0.4 points)

Rohit Ponnaiya | Covers.com

Bills vs Jaguars Best bet: Jaguars +1.5 (-120)

The Buffalo Bills are small road favorites, but they really shouldn't be since the Jacksonville Jaguars enter the playoffs red-hot, going 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight games.

The Jaguars finished the regular season with one more win than Buffalo, despite facing a tougher schedule, and are also slightly higher in the DVOA ratings.

Jacksonville is fifth in the league in defensive EPA and has been strong against both the run and pass. On the other side of the ball, Travis Etienne will churn out yards against a Bills run defense that is near the bottom of the league in every metric.

Bills vs Jaguars moneyline prediction

Since I'm taking the Jags on the small +1.5 spread, I'd also be willing to bet them on the moneyline. After all, they have the better defense and home-field advantage against a Bills squad that can't stop the run.

Score prediction: Jaguars 25, Bills 24

Mike Florio & Chris Simms | Pro Football Talk

This one could spark serious conversations regarding whether the Bills need significant changes.

Florio's pick: Jaguars 24, Bills 21.

Simms's pick: Jaguars 34, Bills 24.

Pete Prisco | CBS Sports

This young Jaguars team is one of the bigger surprises in the league, but they do a lot of things well. They finished as the top run defense and no back ran for over 75 yards against them during the season. That will be big against James Cook, who led the league in rushing. If they can stop Cook, that will put a lot on Josh Allen, who is more than capable. On the other side, the Bills have had defensive issues, while the Jaguars have played well on offense with Trevor Lawrence. Look for that to continue. This will be fun to watch as both quarterbacks light it up with Lawrence winning it late.

Pick: Jaguars 32, Bills 28

Vinnie Iyer | Sporting News

The Jaguars are the better all-around team. They have the hotter, more consistent quarterback in Trevor Lawrence battling Josh Allen, who has been up and down all season and struggled on the road. The Jaguars have the stout top run defense to contain James Cook, too, while Travis Etienne should find plenty of room to rumble on the Bills. Liam Coen keeps up the great season with a big win in Duval, finished off by Josh Hines-Allen.

Pick: Jaguars win 34-27.

Bleacher Report

Davenport: Jaguars (+1.5)

That the Jags are getting points at home despite eight straight wins and nine victories in 10 games (including a blowout victory over the Chargers and an impressive win in Denver) shows that Vegas isn't completely sold on Jacksonville.

However, the Jaguars are playing as well as any team in the AFC, and they should be able to both pressure Josh Allen and run the ball on Buffalo's bottom-five run defense.

This is the week when the Jaguars truly legitimize themselves as a contender in the conference.

Gagnon: Bills (-1.5)

Admittedly, this is a scary one for a Buffalo team that loses its winter-weather advantage. Josh Allen is 0-4 in road playoff games, and the Jags have won four straight home games by 17-plus points.

However, Buffalo has a whole lot more playoff experience than Jacksonville, and it also has the best player in the sport.

I still have a hard time trusting Trevor Lawrence, and this is a slightly less intimidating road environment compared to Allen's last three road playoff losses in Kansas City.

Buffalo wins a close game thanks to some Allen magic in crunch time.

Predictions

Bills: Gagnon, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Jaguars: Davenport, Hanford, Sobleski

Anthony Dabbundo | The Ringer

On paper, this is the most evenly balanced and highest-projected-scoring game of the first round of the playoffs. With Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes out of the playoffs, Josh Allen may never get a better chance to reach the Super Bowl. To do that, he'll have to overcome one of the worst overall rosters he's had throughout his time in Buffalo. The Bills have had issues stopping the run at the second and third levels all year long. Their defense gives up explosive plays constantly. The offense lacks players who can separate at an elite level, and this was on full display when they played high-quality secondaries like the Texans' and Eagles' and could barely move the ball and score.

It's hard to imagine this team actually lifting the Lombardi Trophy in February unless Allen goes on a generational run. This matchup is favorable on paper for the Jaguars for a few reasons.

1. Jacksonville's run defense has been quietly elite this year. The Jaguars rank seventh in rush success rate allowed and third in EPA per rush. Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady has a tendency to fall a little bit too in love with the run game, and the result is an offense that isn't actually as efficient as one with Josh Allen at quarterback should be. Allen has done plenty to bail them out on the money downs (he has elite numbers in obvious passing situations), but it's still a difficult tightrope to walk.
2. The Jaguars are better on script than the Bills. The Jaguars are tied for fourth in the NFL in first-half points per game, while Buffalo is 10th. The Jaguars like to begin games by throwing the ball, whereas Buffalo looks to establish James Cook and the running game. Only the Jets and Ravens ran the ball more often in the first half this season than Buffalo. The Jaguars, meanwhile, actually passed the ball in the first half at the fifth-highest rate. If Brady tries to match the Jaguars offensively by running into the teeth of Jacksonville's defense, that may not go well for Buffalo. There's no reason Brady shouldn't unleash his superhuman quarterback early, but will he?
3. For all the talk of the Patriots' easy schedule, Buffalo's schedule doesn't get enough press. Like the rest of the AFC East teams, the Bills benefited plenty from a favorable schedule of opponents. They did have a few tricky matchups against the Texans, Eagles, and Chiefs as a "reward" for finishing first in the division last year, but overall, they faced the second-easiest schedule in the NFL by DVOA this season.

Verdict: Lean Jaguars +1.5

Around the NFL | NFL.com

Why Brooke picked the Jaguars: Don't look now, but the Jaguars are one of the hottest teams entering the postseason, with eight straight victories. On the season, they have beaten five playoff teams: Panthers, Texans, 49ers, Chargers and Broncos. Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career under first-year head coach Liam Coen, finishing third in the league with 38 offensive TDs. No. 16 has gashed defenses with his arm and legs to get Jacksonville to 13 wins despite having 36 of his passes dropped this season (most for any QB in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats). He'll need his supporting cast to show up against the Bills' top-ranked pass defense, and the Jaguars' run game must rediscover its early-season form. That's where Coen's offense can have a significant edge over Sean McDermott's D, as the Bills have allowed 136.2 rush yards per game (28th in the league). Defensively, the Jags have been quite solid, forcing the second-most turnovers this season and boasting the league's best run D. That unit will have it's hands full with this year's rushing champion, James Cook, whose rush-yards-per-game and yards-per-carry figures in the playoffs steadily increased over the past three seasons: 26 rush YPG and 3.1 yds/carry in 2022; 70 and 3.9 in 2023; 90.7 and 5.1 in 2024.

Right now, the Jaguars are the better team. However, this game could completely tilt on its head because of one person: Bills quarterback Josh Allen. He's simply the best player at the most important position in this year's playoff field, with a 25:4 TD-to-INT ratio in 13 career postseason contests and an average of 311 total yards per game. It's going to take a playoff-sized effort from Anthony Campanile's defense to slow the mighty QB. Perhaps, it will be Josh Hines-Allen we're talking about at game's end. After all, he finished the season tied for the fourth-most QB pressures (80), per NGS.

There is one very big X-factor in this one: Jaguars K Cam Little. This season, he made the TWO longest field goals in NFL history, and let it be known that no player in playoff history has made a field goal of 60-plus yards. Could Little be on his way to more record-breaking moments? I, for one, expect the kicker to be a big part of any Jags success this postseason -- beginning with a game-winning boot on Sunday.