The Buffalo Bills are 5.5-point favorites in this week's matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals in Highmark Stadium. The game will kickoff at 1 pm and will air on FOX.

Here's some additional notes for this week's AFC clash:

• Bills are 23-4 in December/January games since 2020 - the best record in the NFL during that span
• Joe Burrow is 18-5 in December or later games including the postseason
• Burrow is 2-0 including the postseason against the Bills
• Bills are 13-2 (regular season + postseason) when James Cook has 100 rushing yards
• Bengals are 3-0 in 2025 with Burrow as the starter

Mike Florio & Chris Simms | Pro Football Talk

The Bengals are a very different team with Joe Burrow back in action.

Florio's pick: Bengals 30, Bills 27.

Simms's pick: Bills 28, Bengals 24.

Pete Prisco | CBS Sports

Joe Burrow being back has brought life to the Bengals. They can't afford another loss, but beating the Bills on the road will be tough to do. The Bills ran it right at the Steelers for over 240 yards and will do the same here. The Bengals will have trouble stopping the run as the Bills control the ball and Josh Allen hits some timely throws.

Pick: Bills 27, Bengals 20

Vinnie Iyer | Sporting News

The Cincinnati Bengals have been terrible against the run, and their coverage has been middle-of-the-road, especially against tight ends. That's a terrible profile when facing James Cook, Josh Allen and the league's No. 1 rushing attack. Joe Burrow has had plenty of success vs. the Bills' defense in the past, but when they are forced into being too one-dimensional with the pass, the pressure will get to him late.

Pick: Bills win 34-21 and cover the spread.

Bill Bender | Sporting News

Are the Bengals loading up for a run with Joe Burrow? Cincinnati is 2-0 S/U against the Bills with Burrow, and he averages 295 passing yards with four TDs and no interceptions in those games. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen averages 261 yards with one TD and two interceptions. Cincinnati is better with Burrow, and the defense has allowed 360.3 yards per game the last three weeks. Buffalo averages 32.5 points per game at home, but they are 3-3 ATS.

Pick: Bills 31, Bengals 28

Anthony Dabbundo | The Ringer

The Bengals pulled off a comfortable win against the Ravens on Thanksgiving and received a significant market bump in rating as a result. The real question to ask is whether the Bengals' win in Baltimore was based on real, sustainable improvement stemming from Joe Burrow's return or whether it came down to Baltimore's own mistakes. Cincinnati finished the game with a measly 38.8 percent success rate on offense, which was 28th out of 32 teams who played in Week 13. Burrow looked sharper than many expected he would be when throwing the ball, but that still didn't mean that the Bengals offense was humming. He completed just over half of his passes, and the offense averaged less than 5 yards per play. From my perspective, the Bengals won more because of the issues with the Ravens offense than anything else. The Ravens were doomed by constant mistakes, turnovers, and unforced errors, and while the Bengals deserve credit for taking advantage of those opportunities, I think that the market has overreacted here.

Cincinnati has been terrible at covering tight ends all year long and allowed nine receptions for 142 yards last week to the Ravens' tight end combo of Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. Buffalo's Dalton Kincaid practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday and remains uncertain to play in this game, but it's worth targeting him and potentially Dawson Knox as well in the props market. And the Bengals defense won't necessarily take advantage of the absence of Buffalo's starting offensive tackles. They likely won't generate much edge pressure without Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson available.

Verdict: Bet Bills –5.5

ESPN

What we're hearing on the Bengals: Defensive coordinator Al Golden knows getting Buffalo's offense off the field will be crucial. The Bills lead the league in time of possession (33:10) and plays per drive. Golden said being effective on first and second downs will keep Buffalo from being in good spots on third downs to extend drives. "That's where [Josh Allen] does a lot of things to beat you -- arm, leg, scheme," Golden said. -- Ben Baby

What we're hearing on the Bills: Turnovers have been a weakness for this Bills offense of late with multiple in each of the past four games. Allen has four straight games with an interception, tied for the second-longest streak of his career (nine straight in 2023). Buffalo can't keep repeating that formula and being saved by its defense or the other team not taking advantage. "We got to make sure that we're doing everything in our power to limit [turnovers] and keep the ball on on our side and in time of possession and making sure we score when we have those opportunities," Allen said. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: Bengals RB Chase Brown has had a franchise-record six straight games with 100-plus scrimmage yards. The only players with a longer streak in the past five seasons are the 49ers' Christian McCaffrey (eight in 2023, seven this season) and the Colts' Jonathan Taylor (seven in 2021). -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: The Bills will post a pass block win rate over 85%, which would be a roughly 96th percentile score this season. Not only do the Bills have the highest pass block win rate in the NFL (72.7%), but the Bengals have the third-worst pass rush win rate (29.3%) and will likely be without DE Trey Hendrickson (hip) again. -- Walder

What's at stake: Cincinnati and Buffalo are facing different battles in the playoff push. The Bills have a 90% chance to make playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics (goes up to 96% with a win and down to 79% with a loss). Meanwhile, the Bengals have a 7% chance to make playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics (goes up to 14% with a win and down to 3% with a loss). See Playoff Machine. -- ESPN Research

Fantasy nugget: Brown has a very favorable matchup against a Bills defense that has struggled against RBs all season. Buffalo has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, and since the Bengals' Week 10 bye, Brown has averaged 22.3 touches and 17.3 fantasy points. Having Burrow back under center also gives Brown an additional boost to his fantasy ceiling. See Week 14 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Bills are 1-4 ATS vs. teams with losing records (0-4 ATS in the past four games) this season. Read more. -- ESPN Research

Maldonado's pick: Bengals 28, Bills 27

Moody's pick: Bills 27, Bengals 23

Walder's pick: Bills 31, Bengals 20

FPI prediction: BUF, 62.9% (by an average of 5 points)

Bleacher Report

Davenport: Bills (-6)

On the one hand, it's not hard to see why this spread is where it is—the Bengals are a 4-8 team with the only defense in the NFL allowing more than 400 yards and 30 points a game. On the other hand, if the Joe Burrow-led Bengals, who went to Baltimore last week and thumped the Ravens, show up in Week 14, things could get dicey quickly. But it's Josh Allen against a bad defense at home in a game the Bills need. Lay the points.

Gagnon: Bengals ( 6)

The Bengals are well-rested, healthier than they've been in a while (especially if Tee Higgins can return) and potentially inspired to make a run against a Buffalo team that is just 4-4 straight-up in its last four games. Watch for a hot Chase Brown to make a big difference against a vulnerable Bills run defense in a very close contest.

Predictions

Bengals: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, Sobleski

Bills: Davenport, Knox, O'Donnell

Around the NFL | NFL.com

Why Ali picked the Bills: Don't even bother factoring in that the Bengals are 4-8 when thinking through this one. The mark that actually matters is 3-0: Cincinnati's 2025 record with Joe Burrow under center. The two-time Pro Bowler's return seems to have breathed life into the Bengals' spiraling season. More than 28 million of us saw that live on Thanksgiving Night, when the Bengals defense, which ranks last in both yards and points allowed per game (410 and 31.2), held the Ravens to just 14 on the scoreboard. Hard to predict whether that was a one-off performance -- juiced up by playing a familiar opponent in front of a national audience -- or if this unit has turned a corner with their QB1 back in the mix. Buffalo's defense (with the exception of Christian Benford, who's been outstanding of late) has had issues of its own, of course -- particularly against the run. If Chase Brown's hot hand continues, allowing the Bengals offense to sustain drives and help out the defense, I certainly could see Cincinnati winning on Sunday. But it's just so hard to pick against Josh Allen at home this year -- or any year, really -- and especially at this point in the NFL calendar. Since 2021, Allen is a league-best 11-1 in regular-season home games played in December/January. And at Highmark Stadium in 2025, specifically, the Bills are 5-1 and average the second-most points per game (32.5), with multiple shootout victories already on their ledger (See: Ravens in Week 1; Bucs in Week 11). So even with Buffalo's banged-up O-line, and Burrow's well-established late-season heroics, I'm leaning toward the Bills in a close one.