The Buffalo Bills (7-3) are 5.5-point road favorites as they travel to NRG Stadium to face the Houston Texans (5-5). The game begins at 8:15 pm and will air on Prime Video (WKBW in Buffalo).
Here are some additional notes for Thursday's matchup:
- Bills have not won in Houston since Nov. 19, 2006
- Bills have won their last 6 Thursday night football games
- Bills have scored 28+ points in all seven wins this season; Scored 20 or less in all three losses
- Josh Allen is 6-0 in Thursday primetime games; Davis Mills is 0-2
- Houston is 3-0 at home against Buffalo since 2018 (regular season + postseason)
The Texans will start Davis Mills again for the injured C.J. Stroud. But this game will be about Josh Allen against the Texans top-ranked defense. Allen is coming off a six-touchdown day against the Bucs and on a short week this defense will present a big challenge. But I think he's now ready to get on a roll. Bills win it.
Pick: Bills 24, Texans 17
The Bills rode Josh Allen's wild stallion passing and running dominance to victory over the Buccaneers' defense, but the Texans present a tougher challenge in prime time on the road. They can stop the run and pressure him, backing it up with good coverage. He will need to dig deeper to make a few big plays off script. Unfortunately, the Texans don't have the pop with either QB to edge him.
Pick: Bills win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.
I don't expect an outright upset on Thursday. While the Bills have been a little sporadic, they'll pull out the win in what could be a tight game. Allen looks like the best player in the world right now, and I can't trust this Texans offense after they barely outscored the Titans last week.
Score prediction: Bills 20, Texans 16
Underdogs have been the ticket on Thursdays, and I am always looking for a reason to back the savage Texans defense. There are two. First off, the Bills have lost five consecutive games in Houston, including three with Josh Allen — last season, he completed 9 of 30 passes for 131 yards in a 23-20 loss to the Texans.
Also, the Bills' defense is not very good, and while no one is saying Davis Mills is anywhere close to C.J. Stroud, he makes sure to get top-five receiver Nico Collins involved. Collins has 16 catches on 25 targets for 228 yards the past two weeks with Mills and will help the Texans stay close.
The pick: Texans
C.J. Stroud is still in concussion protocol. The Texans defensive line should make life difficult for Josh Allen, but the Bills are the more complete team are a trying to keep pace with the Patriots. I believe Buffalo wins this one on the road.
Pick: Bills 27, Texans 20
Will C.J. Stroud (concussion) return for the Texans? Houston is 2-2 S/U at home, but those losses to Denver and Tampa Bay were by a combined total of four points. Buffalo is 2-2 S/U on the road. Josh Allen is coming off a six-TD performance. This is go-time for the Bills if they want to catch the Patriots in the AFC East.
Pick: Bills 28, Texans 17
The Texans have allowed an NFL-best 163 points, but they face a Bills team that just had Josh Allen score six touchdowns and put up 44 points. Buffalo will be able to outscore Houston.
Prediction: Bills 27, Texans 20
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Connor McGovern (66). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Connor McGovern (66). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
David Edwards (76). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (62). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Zion Logue (93). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Alec Anderson (70). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Alec Anderson (70). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Alec Anderson (70). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Alec Anderson (70). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Jordan Phillips (52), Kendrick Green (53). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Dorian Williams (42). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Kendrick Green (53), Jordan Phillips (52). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Frank Gore Jr. (20). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Dorian Williams (42). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Dorian Williams (42). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Jordan Phillips (52). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Shaq Thompson (45). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Ed Oliver (91). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
A.J. Epenesa (57). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
A.J. Epenesa (57). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Reid Ferguson (69). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
A.J. Epenesa (57). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Gabe Davis (13), Spencer Brown (79). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Gabe Davis (13), Spencer Brown (79). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Dane Jackson (23). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Cam Lewis (39). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Cole Bishop (24). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Tyrell Shavers (14). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Cole Bishop (24). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Javon Solomon (56). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Jordan Poyer (21). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Matt Milano (58). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Matt Milano (58). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Ryan Van Demark (74). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Cole Bishop (24). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Ryan Van Demark (74). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Ryan Van Demark (74). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Javon Solomon (56). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Tyrell Shavers (14). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Tyrell Shavers (14). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Jordan Poyer (21). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Joe Andreessen (44). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Ryan Van Demark (74). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Matt Milano (58). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Tre'Davious White (27). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Joshua Palmer (5). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Jackson Hawes (85). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Taron Johnson (7). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Taron Johnson (7). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Elijah Moore (18). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Elijah Moore (18). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Tre'Davious White (27). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Sam Franklin Jr.(28). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Joshua Palmer (5). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Joshua Palmer (5). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Jackson Hawes (85). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Reggie Gilliam (41). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Reggie Gilliam (41). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Elijah Moore (18). oBuffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Elijah Moore (18). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Reggie Gilliam (41). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Joey Bosa (97). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Larry Ogunjobi (99). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Joey Bosa (97). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Phidarian Mathis (72). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Deone Walker (96). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
DaQuan Jones (92). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Shane Buechele (6). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Mitchell Trubisky (11). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Mitchell Trubisky (11). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
DaQuan Jones (92). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
DaQuan Jones (92). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Greg Rousseau (50). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Christian Benford (47). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Ja'Marcus Ingram (46). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Jordan Hancock (37). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
T.J. Sanders (98). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
O'Cyrus Torrence (64). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
O'Cyrus Torrence (64). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Maxwell Hairston (31). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Travel to Houston, November 19, 2025 at Buffalo Niagara International Airport.
Gagnon: Texans ( 5.5)
Houston's defense has been killing it, and the Texans really need this. They're at home, and the Bills are traveling while banged-up on short rest. Buffalo's shoddy run defense should allow the Texans to control the pace to an extent as they keep this one close.
Hanford: Bills (-5.5)
There are more reasons to pick Houston to cover here than there are to back Buffalo, but I'm choosing to ride with Josh Allen. The Texans' defense has been dominant all season, but the Bills quarterback will be its toughest task yet.
The Bills haven't been able to stop anyone defensively, especially on the ground, but I'm not sure I see Woody Marks and the Texans' ground attack exploiting that consistently.
Davis Mills will be under center again on a short week for the injured C.J. Stroud, and I like Buffalo's pass defense to make enough plays to give its team a seven-point win as Allen stays undefeated for his career on Thursday Night Football.
Predictions
Bills: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Texans: Gagnon, Moton
