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Game Predictions

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Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Game Predictions | Week 9

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The Buffalo Bills are 1.5-point underdogs in Sunday's matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs in Highmark Stadium. The game will kick off at 4:25 pm on CBS.

Here are some additional notes for this week's game:

  • This is the 10th meeting between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes
  • The Bills are 1 of 3 teams to beat Kansas City in four straight regular season games since 2013 (Titans - 4 games from 2014-2021; Broncos - 5 games from 2013-2015)
  • Bills are 3-4 against teams with a winning record since 2024
  • Chiefs are on a three-game winning streak
  • Chiefs are 1-2 on the road in 2025

The Bills are rare home underdogs on the moneyline but not by much. Buffalo has been a dog in front of the Orchard Park crowds only five times since 2020 and have come out with a 4-1 SU mark. I see Buffalo winning on a last-second field goal.

Score prediction: Bills 27, Chiefs 24

This is the game of the week. The Chiefs have won three straight, while the Bills blew out Carolina last week coming off their bye. The Buffalo running game clicked last week, but they will need more from Josh Allen in this one. I think they get it as Allen wins a shootout with Patrick Mahomes. This game will live up to the billing.

Pick: Bills 35, Chiefs 34

Josh Allen is 4-1 against Patrick Mahomes in the regular season, but 0-4 in the playoffs. Unfortunately for the Bills, Mahomes will be viewing this one as a game with playoff-caliber stakes.

Florio's pick: Chiefs 30, Bills 27.

Simms's pick: Chiefs 27, Bills 24.

The Chiefs' offense is hitting on all cylinders and the same is going for the Bills after their Week 7 bye. This should live up to instant high-scoring classic expectations, but in the end Kansas City has a better overall defense ready to deliver in key situations with Patrick Mahomes putting pressure on Josh Allen to keep answering.

Pick: Chiefs win 34-31 and cover the spread.

This is a tough stretch for the Chiefs, with road games at Buffalo and Denver, games that will become more important in the race for AFC playoff seeding. By now you know the trend, Allen is 4-1 S/U in head-to-head regular-season matchups against Mahomes. The Chiefs, however, have found a new gear and are equipped to win this game on the road. The Bills are 4-4 S/U as a home underdog since 2019, so this really is a toss-up.

Pick: Chiefs 28, Bills 24

Scroll to see the best photos as the Buffalo Bills prepare for Week 9 of the NFL season at the Buffalo Bills Training Center. This gallery is presented by ECMC.

What we're hearing on the Chiefs: One reason many of the Chiefs players love their rivalry with the Bills is how both fanbases support their team and hate the other team. "They do not like the Chiefs," QB Patrick Mahomes said of the Bills' fans. "It is a cool environment. I love playing in historic stadiums and that stadium has had so many great players play in it." Sunday's game could be the Chiefs' last appearance in Highmark Stadium. Mahomes hopes Kansas City can pull together for its first victory in Buffalo since 2020. -- Nate Taylor

What we're hearing on the Bills: Though the Bills' offense has reigning MVP Josh Allen, and RB James Cook III is off to an explosive start, questions linger about the recent struggles of the outside passing game. The defense is also dealing with injuries and will have to keep pace with a Chiefs offense that has gotten hot after Rashee Rice's return. "Anytime you're playing against a good team and a good quarterback, you have to get to play at the top of your game in order to win a football game," Allen said. "So, not that you don't go out there and try to play your best all the time, there is a heightened sense of awareness to that, of understanding who's on the other side of the football." -- Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: This is the 10th matchup between Mahomes and Allen, including the playoffs. Since 1950, no QBs under 30 have faced off more from different divisions. -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: The Bills will record multiple 30-plus-yard gains on crossing routes. They run crossing routes 13% of the time, second most in the NFL, while the Chiefs -- despite having a good pass defense -- have allowed 0.77 EPA per play against targeted crossing routes (second worst). -- Walder

Fantasy nugget: Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt is set up for success with Isiah Pacheco dealing with a right MCL sprain. Hunt's nose for the end zone has kept him on the fantasy radar, scoring five total touchdowns in eight games. The Bills' defense also allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to RBs. See Week 9 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: Allen is 4-1 outright and ATS against Mahomes in the regular season, including four straight wins and covers. Read more. -- ESPN Research

Maldonado's pick: Chiefs 23, Bills 20

Moody's pick: Chiefs 32, Bills 24

Walder's pick: Bills 27, Chiefs 24

FPI prediction: KC, 58.2% (by an average of 2.6 points)

Gagnon: Bills (+2.5)

The Bills have had Kansas City's number in the regular season, so I'm confused as to why they'd be getting points at home in this spot. Buffalo lost its last home game to New England, but that works out well because it hasn't lost two consecutive home games since 2021.

O'Donnell: Chiefs (-2.5)

I hate not rolling with the Bills. They have won the last four regular-season meetings, yet they have lost each of the postseason meetings. This is going back to the playoffs in the year of 2021. So, this is one of those games where I fast-forward in my mind what could be later this season.

I'm going to flip the script and have a rolling Chiefs team get the win and cover, putting the Bills on their heels in November (which would be three losses in their last four games) and setting the table for Josh Allen to finally beat Patrick Mahomes when it really matters—in January.

Predictions

Chiefs: Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell

Bills: Davenport, Gagnon, Sobleski

Why Dan picked the Chiefs: A clear pattern has emerged between these two AFC heavyweights, with the Bills beating the Chiefs in four straight regular-season games and Kansas City eliminating Buffalo in four straight playoff matchups. I think the streak -- at least the regular-season one -- snaps this time around. The Chiefs are the only team with a top-five total offense and defense right now. Patrick Mahomes has clearly been the best QB in the NFL since Week 4. Meanwhile, shockingly, Josh Allen has the league's lowest passer rating on deep passes in 2025 (29.4, min. 15 deep attempts) and Buffalo lost at home in its only game against a team with a winning record (Patriots in Week 5). It gets worse, as the Bills will be without DT Ed Oliver, the engine of their defense, as he recovers from a torn bicep suffered in last week's win over the Panthers. The reigning MVP is capable of putting the team on his back, even against the toughest competition, but I see an advantage for the Chiefs that is too significant for me to ignore.

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