The Buffalo Bills are 5.5-point favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Highmark Stadium on Sunday. The game stats at 1 pm and will air on CBS.

Here are some additional notes for Sunday's matchup

• Bills are 6-0 at home vs. NFC teams since 2023
• Tampa Bay is 4-1 on the road in 2025
• Tampa Bay has lost 2 of their last 3 games
• Bills are 3-0 all-time vs. the Buccaneers at home
• The home team has won each of the last 7 matchups

Jason Logan | Covers.com

This won't be an easy game for the Bills, considering the injuries on both sides of the ball. I'm not sure they cover the spread, but the horrible November weather inside Highmark Stadium could be just enough.

Score prediction: Buffalo 24, Tampa Bay 21.

Mike Florio & Chris Simms | Pro Football Talk

This could end up being the most exciting game of the week. And the Bills desperately need a better showing than their most recent no-show in Miami.

Florio's pick: Bills 27, Buccaneers 24.

Simms's pick: Bills 28, Buccaneers 24.

Pete Prisco | CBS Sports

This a big game for both teams, but much bigger for the Bills. They looked awful in losing to Miami last week. The Bucs might be going into a game against a team that is desperate to get a win. Josh Allen didn't play well last week. He will in this one. Bills take it.

Pick: Bills 30, Buccaneers 23

Vinnie Iyer | Sporting News

The Buccaneers can still stop the run well despite the anomalous breakdowns vs. the Patriots. They will focus on containing James Cook and feel good about the matchups with Josh Allen's wide receivers, playing coverage. Baker Mayfield will get more support from the running game and has the speed skill around him to make this interesting in a high-scoring affair.

Pick: Bills win 30-27 but fail to cover the spread.

Bill Bender | Sporting News

Which team responds to a Week 10 loss? The Bills are 3-1 S/U at home. The Buccaneers have a plus-8 turnover margin, which should play well on the road. Tampa Bay also is 1-2 S/U when they allow 100 rushing yards, and the Buffalo is 5-0 S/U when James Cook rushes for 100 yards or more. Keep an eye on that in-game trend. Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS on the road.

Pick: Bills 30, Buccaneers 27

ESPN

What we're hearing on the Buccaneers: Coach Todd Bowles is very conscious of how explosive the Bills' offense can be, namely QB Josh Allen (running and passing) and RB James Cook III. Buffalo averages the second-most yards per game (384.4) and leads the NFL in rushing yards (153.2). After yielding several explosive plays against the Patriots last week, the Bucs are trying to keep that from happening again. "[Cook's] dangerous," Bowles said. "He's very dangerous. He can do a lot of things running and catching the football. if you're a half-step late, he's going to take it to the house." -- ESPN Staff

What we're hearing on the Bills: The Bills' defense is starting to get a bit healthier, with rookie DT T.J. Sanders (knee) set to be activated from injured reserve. The group will look to bounce back against the run after allowing the Dolphins to rush for their season high of 197 yards. "We didn't get the guy on the ground in the situations we needed to, and that's across the board," coordinator Bobby Babich said. "And when you think it's getting better, all of a sudden, [the Dolphins] game shows up. And you look back at it, you're like, why? So, we've got to answer that why. And I know the guys will respond to it." -- Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: Allen has exactly two turnovers in all three of the Bills' losses. He has one turnover in their six wins. -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Bills RB Ty Johnson will record at least 40 receiving yards. Johnson could be the latest running back to take advantage of Bucs LB SirVocea Dennis' coverage struggles. -- Walder

Fantasy nugget: Bucs RB Rachaad White is set to start once again. White has handled lead-back duties for six straight weeks as Bucky Irving works back from shoulder and foot injuries. White has recorded double-digit carries in each of his past five games but has cooled off recently, totaling just 26.9 fantasy points over his past three outings. However, the Bills' defense has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to RBs this season. See Week 11 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Bucs have covered six straight after a loss. They are 8-1 ATS after a loss over the past two seasons and 13-4 ATS since acquiring Baker Mayfield.

Maldonado's pick: Bills 27, Buccaneers 20

Moody's pick: Bills 27, Buccaneers 24

Walder's pick: Bills 27, Buccaneers 17

FPI prediction: BUF, 60.8% (by an average of 4.1 points)

Around the NFL | NFL.com

Why Ali picked the Bills: Because this game will be played in Buffalo. Home-field advantage can often be a bit overstated; after all, home teams have won at just a 54.7% clip this season. But the Bills aren't just any average team when they play at Highmark Stadium: They've won an NFL-best 83% of their regular-season home games since the start of the decade (39-8), and have been particularly potent when the calendar flips to November, capturing nine straight dating back to the 2023 season (longest active streak). Now, I know the Bills have already dropped a game in Buffalo this year -- a nail-biter to New England in Week 5. But those same Patriots just went down to Tampa last Sunday and comfortably handled Baker Mayfield & Co, too. While I don't expect the Bills to run away with this one -- especially if Bucky Irving makes his long-awaited return (he could be just the spark the Bucs offense needs right now) -- I just find it too difficult to believe Josh Allen doesn't rebound resoundingly after one of the worst losses of his career. Not in front of the Bills Mafia. Sometimes the simple stats are the most reliable ones.

Bleacher Report

Davenport: Buccaneers ( 5.5)

The Bills are no doubt livid after getting spanked in Miami last week, and it's getting to be the time of year when playing in Buffalo can be unpleasant. But while it's going to be chilly by Florida standards Sunday and the track may be a little wet, the weather shouldn't be a huge factor.

What is a huge factor is a Bills defense that was just gashed by a bad Dolphins team and an inconsistent Buffalo passing attack.

The Bills will likely get the win at home, but covering a spread this big is another matter.

Hanford: Bills (-5.5)

The Bills are looking to right the ship after an embarrassing loss to the Dolphins in Week 10, and the Buccaneers have shown lately—partly due to injuries—that their early-season contender status may have been a mirage after losing two of their last three games.

Josh Allen played arguably his worst game of the season last week, and while I'm not sure we've seen the last of that after a sleepy trade deadline, the Bills are able to lean on James Cook and the run game here to get the job done.

Buffalo's defense is worrisome, but this team is 9-0 at home in the 1 p.m. window since 2023, and a warm-weather team on the road isn't going to change that this week. The Bills by a touchdown.

Predictions

Buccaneers: Davenport, Knox, Moton

Bills: Gagnon, Hanford, O'Donnell, Sobleski