The Buffalo Bills (11-4) are 1.5-point favorites in Sunday's matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) in Highmark Stadium. The game will kickoff at 4:25 pm on FOX.
Here are some additional notes for the interconference matchup:
- Bills are 13-1 against NFC opponents since 2020 - NFL's best record
- Eagles have won their last three games against Buffalo
- Bills are 26-4 in December/January regular season games since 2020
This is a big game in terms of playoff push, but both teams have locked up playoff berths. The Eagles are playing for seeding, while the Bills are just hoping to win two and hope the Pats lose to have a chance to win the division. This could be a game that gets a little loose, with the Bills winning it late with a field goal in the final seconds.
Pick: Bills 33, Eagles 31
The Eagles have gotten Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts and the running game going which is bad news for the Bills' sieve of a run defense in the middle of the field. The Eagles have the tough defensive coverage inside and revved up pass rush to make it tough on Josh Allen to match once James Cook is contained.
Pick: Eagles win 24-23.
Josh Allen's foot could be an issue on Sunday.
Florio's pick: Bills 30, Eagles 27.
Simms's pick: Bills 24, Eagles 20.
What we're hearing on the Eagles: This matchup features two of the NFL's most prolific rushing QBs in Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. Hurts has been more selective with his feet this season and is on pace for career lows for rushing attempts and yards since taking over as the full-time starter in 2021. He has stepped it up of late, though, rushing 14 times for 79 yards over the past two games. Expect that trend to continue as the stakes rise around playoff time. -- Tim McManus
What we're hearing on the Bills: RB James Cook III has the lead in the battle for the rushing title (1,532) over the Colts' Jonathan Taylor (1,489), and continuing his success on the ground could go a long way against the defending Super Bowl champions. The Eagles have allowed 123.5 rushing yards per game (21st) and given up first downs on 27.6% of rushes (27th). "[Cook] had some big games last year, but the look in his eye each week, the intensity that he shows up with, it's really been influential on our whole football team," coach Sean McDermott said. "Guys see that. That's kind of a little bit unique for a running back position player to have that type of impact on the whole team." -- Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: In 2023's Week 12 battle between these two teams, Hurts and Allen both finished with multiple passing touchdowns and multiple rushing touchdowns, marking the first game in NFL history where opposing players accomplished that feat, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Allen will rush for at least 60 yards. The Bills receivers are going to be outmatched by the Eagles in this game, so it could fall even more than usual on the shoulders of Allen to generate production. -- Walder
What's at stake: The Eagles have clinched a playoff berth and the NFC East. If the Bills lose, they will be out of contention for the AFC East title, but have still clinched a playoff berth. See Playoff Machine. -- ESPN Research
Fantasy nugget: The Bills' defensive front has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game and now has to deal with Eagles RB Saquon Barkley, who has logged at least 20 touches and 17 fantasy points in three consecutive games. Barkley remains the focal point of a Philadelphia offense that's finally settling into an identity with the playoffs approaching. See Week 17 rankings. -- Moody
Betting nugget: The Eagles are 5-0 outright as underdogs since the start of last season, including playoffs (4-0 in regular season). Read more. -- ESPN Research
Maldonado's pick: Eagles 19, Bills 16
Moody's pick: Bills 28, Eagles 24
Walder's pick: Bills 24, Eagles 21
FPI prediction: BUF, 50.3% (by an average of 0.0 points)
Why Ali picked the Bills: Fresh off one of his best performances of the season, Saquon Barkley gets another favorable matchup this weekend in Buffalo's 30th-ranked rush defense. As effective as the Bills have been running the ball this season, they've been equally and oppositely awful at stopping the run. Since Week 10, Buffalo ranks bottom three in the majority of advanced rushing defense metrics, including rush EPA per carry, explosive runs allowed and rush yards over expected. You know which defense consistently appears next to the Bills' unit at the bottom of these Next Gen rankings? Yep, the Commanders D that Saquon just dusted for 132 yards.
It's also worth noting that we could see a particularly inspired Philadelphia side on Sunday, considering this might be the starters' final tune-up before the tournament begins; the Eagles have already secured the NFC East crown and would need Chicago to lose out to even have a chance at the No. 2 seed.
And even with all that said, I just can't pick against Josh Allen at Highmark -- even if he has a bum foot. The dude has won a league-best 12 consecutive regular-season home games in December/January -- a streak that dates back to the 2021 campaign. It might not be pretty, but I'm counting on my MVP pick to find a way once again.
Gagnon: Eagles (+2.5)
The Bills have merely been surviving during their four-game winning streak. They actually trailed the Steelers at halftime, they trailed the Bengals by double digits in the fourth quarter, they fell behind 21-0 in New England and they cut it extremely close last week in Cleveland.
It doesn't feel very sustainable, and Philly has seemingly found a groove again with consecutive double-digit-point wins. Throw in that Josh Allen has a foot injury just as the Eagles are getting some key players back and this is a no-brainer. Philadelphia wins outright.
O'Donnell: Bills (-2.5)
You may be tired of hearing it, but no team wants that home-field advantage more than the Buffalo Bills, especially with perennial postseason nemesis, the Kansas City Chiefs, completely out of the playoff field this year. Can the Eagles discover their running game against the bad Buffalo run D? Would that be enough to balance the Philly offense? It won't matter.
As good and dangerous as the Eagles' defense is, Josh Allen is coming off a poor performance in Cleveland, but is simply too good and too driven right now to falter with so much on the line. If not this year, when? Bills take this by at least a touchdown.
Predictions
Eagles: Gagnon, Sobleski
Bills: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell
