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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Game Predictions | Week 15

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The Buffalo Bills are 1.5-point favorites for Sunday's game at Gillette Stadium. The game will air on CBS at 1 pm.

Here are some additional notes on this AFC East clash:

  • Each of the last 5 Bills-Pats games have been decided by one possession
  • Patriots have won 10 straight games
  • Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win
  • Bills are 24-4 in December/January regular season games since 2020 - best record in the NFL during that span
  • Mike Vrabel is 6-1 after the bye week in his career
  • Bills have lost their last three games to teams coming off a bye week
  • Patriots are 1-4 following a bye week since 2020
  • Bills are 9-1 in 2025 when James Cook has 100+ scrimmage yards

The Patriots are coming off a bye, while the Bills are coming off a come-from-behind victory over the Bengals. Josh Allen was Josh Allen in that one and that's the way it has to be for the Bills to win. He wasn't the last time these teams met, which is why the Patriots won. This time will be different. Allen wins it with his usual big plays.

Pick: Bills 30, Patriots 28

Josh Allen and Buffalo are getting the buzz as the team to beat in the AFC, despite the fact at 9-4, they still trail New England by two games and lost the first matchup at home. The Patriots also enjoyed a Week 14 bye to further settle Drake Maye and the defense for Josh McDaniels and coach of the year Mike Vrabel. The Patriots have shown the better overall D, while the Bills still have too many holes on that side.

Pick: Patriots win 27-24.

The Patriots' 23-20 victory against the Bills in Week 5 shifted the nature of the AFC East race. Now, Buffalo has a shot to get even. Josh Allen continues to play at a MVP-caliber level, but so is Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. The Bills had 11 penalties for 90 yards in the first meeting. That can't happen again, right?

Pick: Bills 27, Patriots 24

The Patriots have the AFC East title in their grasp. The fact that they're home underdogs will provide an extra nudge.

Florio's pick: Patriots 27, Bills 24.

Simms's pick: Patriots 31, Bills 21.

Like the Broncos, the Patriots are another team with an excellent record, and the betting market continues to be skeptical about this team. It's highly unusual that the Broncos and Pats, the top two seeds in the current AFC playoff picture, both of which have multiple game leads over everyone else in the conference, would be home underdogs in the same week. Even though the Patriots dismantled the shoddy Giants defense with a superb Drake Maye performance the last time we saw them play, I think that it's time for Buffalo to get its revenge for their first meeting earlier this season.

Let's start with my concerns about New England: The Patriots run defense has been slipping in recent weeks. Before Milton Williams's injury, New England had a top five run defense in rushing success rate allowed (Weeks 1-10). Since Williams left the Jets game with an injury in Week 11, the Patriots have slipped to 28th. The post-injury sample is admittedly only three games, but there have been real cracks in the foundation that Buffalo will be looking to exploit through James Cook and the power run game.

The Patriots have also struggled in the red zone, and that's an area where Buffalo has a definite advantage because of its ability to unleash Josh Allen as a runner. The Patriots rank 24th in red zone touchdown percentage, while Buffalo sits at ninth. Against the Bengals in Week 12, the Patriots' red zone issues nearly cost them late in the game, and it could happen again in another high-leverage close game. Their struggles stem from their inability to consistently run the ball.

Verdict: Bet Bills moneyline (–115)

Scroll to see the best photos as the Buffalo Bills prepare for Week 15 of the NFL season at the Buffalo Bills Training Center. This gallery is presented by Victory Live.

What we're hearing on the Bills: Buffalo is well aware of the challenge in trying to defend QB Drake Maye, with multiple Bills defenders noting his command of the offense and the support he has received from his playmakers. The high-stakes nature of the game was felt around the building. QB Josh Allen spoke highly of Maye. "He's playing like a veteran quarterback. He's seeing things extremely well. He plays at a great pace. It looks like things have slowed down for him. Which again, we hate to see that, right?" Allen said jokingly. "But I'm happy for how well he's playing because he's a great human being on top of being a football player." -- Alaina Getzenberg

What we're hearing on the Patriots: Coach Mike Vrabel and Patriots players are embracing the magnitude of the game and the chance to clinch the AFC East title. "This is a great stage that we put ourselves on, and that's exciting," Vrabel said. WR Stefon Diggs, who spent four seasons in Buffalo, added: "This game is a little different because you're playing for something. Every team in the league can't say that." And Maye said the chance to do it against the Bills adds to the dynamic. "They've won the division for five years [in a row]. So, we have something we need to go take, and know it's going to be hard to do, but we're up for it," Maye said. -- Mike Reiss

Stat to know: Maye is one of eight QBs since 1950 to win at least 10 straight games in the first two seasons of his career. -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Bills CB Christian Benford will allow fewer than 20 yards in coverage. It's not quite the zero yards allowed (plus a pick-six and sack) that he had in his monster Week 14 game, but if he stays hot, that will go a long way toward a Bills victory. -- Walder

What's at stake: The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win. New England has won 21 division titles since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, which is the fourth most in the NFL. See Playoff Machine. -- ESPN Research

Fantasy nugget: The Bills' defensive front has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to RBs, which bodes well for Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson. Even though he appears to be back in a timeshare with Rhamondre Stevenson, Henderson still belongs in lineups because of his explosiveness. He has averaged 12.4 touches and 11.4 fantasy points per game this season, which provides a reasonable floor. See Week 15 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Patriots have covered five straight division games (3-0 against the spread this season). The Bills are 0-3 ATS in their past three division games. Read more. -- ESPN Research

Maldonado's pick: Patriots 31, Bills 20

Moody's pick: Patriots 24, Bills 21

Walder's pick: Bills 24, Patriots 20

FPI prediction: BUF, 53.5% (by an average of 1.5 points)

Hanford: Bills (-1.5)

The Patriots haven't swept the Bills since 2019, and I don't see that changing here.

Josh Allen and Buffalo will be desperate to keep New England from capturing the AFC East crown. The Patriots have had two weeks to plan for Allen, but, while New England is a good team, I'm still not entirely sold on them outside of Drake Maye's wizardry.

Since beating the Bills the first time around, the Patriots have won eight straight against opponents with a combined record of 28-76. Not exactly a murderer's row. The Bills have been vulnerable this year, especially when they turn the ball over, but I like Allen to take care of the ball and earn a gutsy road win.

Knox: Patriots (+1.5)

It's hard for me to wrap my brain around the idea that New England might sweep Buffalo this year. However, it's harder for me to believe this Bills defense corrals Drake Maye and the NFL's hottest team on the road.

The Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win, and they've had two weeks to prepare a game plan for slowing Allen. New England will get its first sweep since 2019.

Predictions

Bills: Gagnon, Hanford, Moton, O'Donnell

Patriots: Davenport, Knox, Sobleski

Why Brooke picked the Bills: I keep coming back to something my fellow games picker Ali Bhanpuri pointed out earlier this week: It's possible New England could win 15 games without beating more than one team that finishes the year with a winning record. That one team? Buffalo, which New England beat in Week 5. Now, the Patriots, winners of 10 straight, have a two-game lead in the division and can win the title by defeating the Bills at home on Sunday. You know, it just doesn't feel quite that easy. Josh Allen continues to put the team on his back when asked and knows what it's like being the hunted. That's a new scenario for Drake Maye, who dismissed that idea earlier this week. Maye must show he can handle the pressure in what will feel like a true playoff game between two heavyweights. On paper, this is sure to be a fairly even matchup with both the Bills and Patriots featuring top-10 total offenses and defenses. New England's MVP candidate could make a big statement this week. I'm not ruling that out. I'm just not ready to hand the division over yet -- even though the Pats could end up winning it eventually -- with Allen and the been-there-done-that Bills coming off a big win and ready to fight for what's been theirs for the last half-decade.

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