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Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers Game Predictions | Week 13

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The Bills (7-4) are 3.5-point road favorites as they travel to face the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) at Acrisure Stadium. The game begins at 4:25 pm and will air on CBS.

Here are some additional notes for Sunday's matchup

  • Bills are 4-0 in games played after a loss with 10+ days off under Josh Allen (per Action Network)
  • Bills are 3-10 in Pittsburgh all-time
  • Josh Allen is 26-9 coming off a loss as a starter
  • Pittsburgh has lost 2 of its last 3 games

Buffalo may face a dinged-up Aaron Rodgers or QB2 Mason Rudolph. Either way, Josh Allen gives Buffalo a big edge under center. This could be a close one, but I'll side with Buffalo.

Final score prediction: Bills 20-17

This is a have-to for both these teams. Both are coming off road losses. The Steelers might have Aaron Rodgers back in this one, which they need. The Bills will have extra rest after playing last Thursday. That will give them time to get back on track. I think the Bills passing game will light up the Steelers pass defense. Bills take it.

Pick: Bills 31, Steelers 22

The Bills can't afford to lose another one. And reality is setting in for the Steelers.

Florio's pick: Bills 30, Steelers 20.

Simms's pick: Bills 27, Steelers 20.

The Bills have been up and down all season but with some time to reset from the rough game in Houston, they'll be ready to turn in one of their best performances as the combination of Josh Allen and James Cook is a tough rushing matchup for the Steelers. Whoever's at QB, Mason Rudolph or Aaron Rodgers, will get plenty of help from his running game, too, but Allen is better equipped to make big pass plays.

Pick: Bills win 27-20 and cover the spread.

Which Buffalo team will show up in Pittsburgh? The Bills have committed three turnovers each of the last three games, and the defense has been susceptible to the run. The Steelers are going to be a popular pick to cover here, even if Aaron Rodgers (wrist) does not play. The Bills even their road record and get back on track behind Josh Allen, who is 4-1 as a starter against the Steelers.

Pick: Bills 29, Steelers 22

Scroll to see the best photos as the Buffalo Bills prepare for Week 13 of the NFL season at the Buffalo Bills Training Center. This gallery is presented by LECOM.

What we're hearing on the Bills: Protecting the football will be paramount for the Bills. Not only is this game on the road, where the Bills have scored fewer than 20 points in all three road losses, but Pittsburgh is tied for second in the NFL in takeaways (20). Buffalo has three straight games with three turnovers, the team's longest single-season streak since 2006. Four straight would be the longest since 1986. This is a significant game for Buffalo as December nears, so stopping, or even limiting, this recent trend will go a long way. -- Alaina Getzenberg

What we're hearing on the Steelers: Pittsburgh will be without LT Broderick Jones (neck) as QB Aaron Rodgers attempts to return with a fractured left wrist, but perhaps an even more impactful absence is rookie DT Derrick Harmon. Though the first-round pick didn't exit early in the loss to Chicago, he sustained a knee injury that will keep him out against Buffalo. Led by RB James Cook III and his 98.2 yards per game, the Bills lead the NFL with 147.2 rushing yards per game. The Steelers run defense has improved recently, holding teams to an average of 105.0 yards per game. Harmon will be replaced by rookie Yahya Black and new acquisition Brodric Martin-Rhodes. -- Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: The Steelers have five games where they've allowed 30-plus points this season, tied for the most in a season under coach Mike Tomlin (five in 2013). -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Bills WR Khalil Shakir will record at least 90 receiving yards. Steelers nickel corner Brandin Echols is allowing 1.4 yards per coverage snap, the second-most among slot corners with at least 150 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. -- Walder

Fantasy nugget: The Bills' defensive front ranks 19th in run stop win rate (29.7%) and has given up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to RBs. Steelers RB Jaylen Warren is in a great spot behind an offensive line that ranks eighth in run block win rate (72.2%). The Bills are a tough matchup for opposing QBs, allowing the fewest pass attempts in the league, which should further funnel Pittsburgh toward the run. See Week 13 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Steelers are 14-6 ATS in their past 20 games after a loss. Read more. -- ESPN Research

Maldonado's pick: Steelers 24, Bills 20

Moody's pick: Bills 27, Steelers 26

Walder's pick: Bills 30, Steelers 10

FPI prediction: BUF, 55.4% (by an average of 2.5 points)

Gagnon: Steelers ( 3.5)

I have the Bills winning this, but by a field goal, so it's all about that hook.

Buffalo has suffered road losses to Atlanta, Houston and Miami in the last seven weeks, and the Steelers put up a good fight in Chicago last week.

The Steelers have the defensive playmaking ability to take advantage of a sloppy-of-late Bills offense and keep this close.

Hanford: Bills (-3.5)

I run the risk of getting bit by another hook here, but I just can't see a world where an angry and frustrated Bills team doesn't come in and hang points on a bad Steelers defense.

Maybe the Steelers are able to pressure Josh Allen as Houston did last Thursday, but the Pittsburgh defense doesn't have the speed, physicality or coaching that allow a duo like Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter to put Allen on the ground repeatedly.

The Bills have their warts, but their receiving core is built for the quick game that has been Pittsburgh's Achilles' heel all year.

Even if Aaron Rodgers is back, I don't see the firepower to attack Buffalo's shaky defense. Bills by a touchdown.

Predictions

Bills: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski

Steelers: Gagnon, O'Donnell

Why Brooke picked the Steelers: Pittsburgh's back is against the wall after Baltimore leapfrogged it last week to claim the top spot in the division. The Steelers are optimistic Aaron Rodgers will return after missing last week with a left wrist injury. Rodgers has been efficient, but he is averaging fewer than 200 pass yards per game, which would be his lowest mark over a season as a starter. The Steelers have a lot of questions offensively, but they could lean on their ground attack for the second straight week, especially with the Bills allowing the third-most rush yards per game (148.9) and second-most yards per carry (5.3) this season. After all, Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell nearly ran Pittsburgh to victory last week with Mason Rudolph in at QB. Conversely, the Bills should feel pretty good about facing a Steelers defense that ranks in the bottom five in yards allowed and bottom half of the league in points allowed. What's worrisome is the health of Bills tackles Spencer Brown (shoulder) and Dion Dawkins (concussion). So, too, is how Josh Allen has fared on the road in 2025. He has scored just seven offensive touchdowns in five road games (21 TDs in six home contests), while Buffalo has averaged nearly 10 fewer points per game on the road (23.2) than at Highmark Stadium (32.5). Plus, the Bills are 2-3 on the road (5-1 at home). The Terrible Towels make Pittsburgh a tough place to play, and that defense could quite easily turn the game on its head if T.J. Watt, Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith can regularly get into the backfield. I'm not sure I trust either one of these outfits at this moment, but I'll take the home team in a close one.

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