The Buffalo Bills are 4.5-point favorites on the road at Mercedes Benz Stadium. The game will kickoff at 7:15 pm and will air on ESPN.
Here are some additional notes on the game:
- Falcons have won seven of their last eight Monday Night Football games
- Bills are 15-5 in primetime games since 2022
- Michael Penix is 3-4 as a starter
- Josh Allen is 5-5 in Monday Night Football games
- Allen is 24-8 following a loss - 1 of 3 NFL QBs with a win% above .700 since 2018 in this spot (Mahomes and Jackson)
- Sean McDermott is 2-0 against Atlanta in his career
The Bills are coming off their first loss Sunday night, while the Falcons are coming off a bye. The Falcons will present a tough challenge for the Bills defense, but I think this game will be about Josh Allen. He will start to hit shots down the field in the passing game, which hasn't happened much this season, as the Bills win it.
Pick: Bills 33, Falcons 27
Coming off a bye, I like the Atlanta Falcons to get WR Darnell Mooney and CB A.J. Terrell healthy ahead of their home matcup on MNF.
The Falcons defense has been lights out against the pass this season, and the combination of Jalon Walker and James Pearce should contain Josh Allen in the pocket.
Falcons take this one, 27-23.
Did the Patriots show the blueprint for slowing down the Bills? It was more about penalties and turnovers, and Josh Allen should be able to clean that up on the early Monday Night Football stage. Atlanta is 2-0 S/U at home this season, and coming off a bye week, so this won't be easy.
Pick: Bills 31, Falcons 22
The Bills won't be caught off guard in prime time again and the Falcons tend to be too up-and-down with their young offensive weapons to keep up with Josh Allen and James Cook on the indoor fast track.
Pick: Bills win 27-20 and cover the spread.
The Bills are vulnerable to another upset.
Florio's pick: Bills 23, Falcons 20.
Simms's pick: Bills 24, Falcons 21.
The Bills aren't close to operating at peak efficiency right now. The defense is average in success rate (16th) through five weeks, and that's with two outlier games (one good vs. the Jets, one bad vs. the Ravens) in the sample. It's also bottom five in explosive play rate allowed and now potentially without defensive tackle Ed Oliver (again), linebacker Matt Milano, and multiple other key contributors.
Both these defenses have struggled mightily to stop the run and rank in the bottom 10 in rushing success rate allowed, and that's a problem for both in this matchup. Atlanta will be rested and prepared coming off a bye, and the soft middle in this Buffalo defense feels open for Bijan Robinson to exploit. However, Buffalo can always rely on James Cook and its excellent offensive line to stay ahead of the chains.
I predict Atlanta will produce enough explosive plays to keep this game close and down to the final possession. One really encouraging change for the Falcons offense is that it finally let Michael Penix Jr. use his special arm talent down the field, putting an end to the checkdown circus that plagued Atlanta's opening three weeks.
Verdict: Bet over 49.5, and bet Falcons +4.5
Scroll to see the best photos as the Buffalo Bills prepare for Week 6 of the NFL season at the Buffalo Bills Training Center. This gallery is presented by Delta.
Sean McDermott. Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Sean McDermott. Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
. Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
A.J. Epenesa (57). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
A.J. Epenesa (57). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
. Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
David Edwards (76), Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
. Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
. Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Deone Walker (96). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Greg Rousseau (50). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Phidarian Mathis (72). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Phidarian Mathis (72). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ryan Van Demark (74). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joey Bosa (97). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taylor Rapp (9). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Tre'Davious White (27). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11), Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11), Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Shane Buechele (6). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Reggie Gilliam (41). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Jackson Hawes (85). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keleki Latu (83). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
. Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Elijah Moore (18). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Kristian Wilkerson (82). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Frank Gore Jr. (20). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Frank Gore Jr. (20). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joe Andreessen (44), Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Rob Boras. Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dorian Williams (42). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joshua Palmer (5). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joshua Palmer (5). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joshua Palmer (5). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joshua Palmer (5). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Tre'Davious White (27). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taylor Rapp (9). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taylor Rapp (9). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Terrel Bernard (8). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taron Johnson (7). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taron Johnson (7). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Curtis Samuel (1). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Curtis Samuel (1). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Tyrell Shavers (14). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Deone Walker (96). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Andre Jones Jr. (59). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Cam Lewis (39). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Matt Prater (15). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
O'Cyrus Torrence (64), Reid Ferguson (69). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitch Wishnowsky (19). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
David Edwards (76). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Jackson Hawes (85). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Cole Bishop (24). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taron Johnson (7). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Cam Lewis (39). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
A.J. Epenesa (57). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Elijah Moore (18). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Elijah Moore (18). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Shaq Thompson (45). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
A.J. Epenesa (57). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
O'Cyrus Torrence (64), Josh Allen (17), David Edwards (76), Ryan Van Demark (74). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0), Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 6 Practice, October 09, 2025 at Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Why Ali picked the Bills: Back in August, I lamented how difficult the 2025 Falcons were to project. I expected them to be better offensively but still frustratingly inconsistent from week to week. Four games in, and I'm as perplexed by Atlanta now as I was in the preseason. How do you confidently predict anything from a squad that can absolutely shut down the Vikings in Minnesota one week, and then lose 30-0 to Carolina the next? Is Atlanta's defense as good as the numbers suggest (No. 1 in total yards, pass yards and first downs allowed per game)? Is Michael Penix Jr. turning a corner after turning in arguably his top performance as a pro? Is Bijan Robinson the best player in the NFL? (I don't know. Maybe. Probably not.) What I do know, though, is Robinson is an absolute nightmare to defend. If he can get going against the Bills' banged-up front seven, and Atlanta's defense can play to its ranking, then the home underdogs have a legit chance to pull off the prime-time upset. But picking against Josh Allen does not feel good. In fact, it feels quite bad. I'd rather be wrong backing the reigning MVP than fade him and risk suffering through four quarters of his inimitable heroics. Sorry, Falcons fans ... I really do think you can win this one.
Fun fact: Since 2018, just three QBs have a win percentage of .700 or higher following a loss: Lamar Jackson (.800), Patrick Mahomes (.800) and Josh Allen (.750). Jackson and Mahomes have already dropped back-to-back games this season. Is Allen next?
Gagnon: Falcons (+4.5)
I have little doubt the juggernaut Bills can bounce back with a win here, but Atlanta has a plus-four scoring margin in two home games against 2024 division winners Tampa Bay and Washington this season.
The Falcons have also had two weeks to prepare coming off their bye, and Buffalo's struggling run defense also presents a good opportunity for Bijan Robinson and the Atlanta offense to set the pace and keep this thing competitive.
O'Donnell: Bills (-4.5)
I'm going to keep this real simple. This is a Falcons team that was blanked by the Carolina Panthers. The Bills are coming off a humbling division loss to the Patriots.
There are flaws in Buffalo's game, but there are more in Atlanta's than I'm comfortable with right now, mainly its QB's erratic play.
The Falcons are also 0-4-1 ATS in non-conference games under Raheem Morris in his second stint with the team. Josh Allen and the Bills get a chance for a statement victory after last week's prime-time loss, and I'm on the wagon for it.
Predictions
Bills: Davenport, Hanford, Knox, Moton, O'Donnell, Sobleski
Falcons: Gagnon
What we're hearing on the Bills: Buffalo's offense has an extra day to prepare after the team's first loss, which was also the first time it failed to score 30 points this season. One objective is reducing the turnovers (three vs. New England) against a Falcons team that has six takeaways on the season (tied for 11th most). But an important part of the offense that could be a challenge against Atlanta is the big plays. The Bills are second in the NFL with 37 explosive plays (rushes of 10-plus yards and completions of 20-plus yards), but the Falcons have allowed just 14 explosive plays this season, second fewest in the NFL. -- Alaina Getzenberg
What we're hearing on the Falcons: Atlanta's defense has been excellent against the pass so far. It has allowed the fewest passing yards per game (108) -- 46 yards per game fewer than any other team -- and opposing teams have the seventh-worst EPA per dropback (minus-0.09) against the Falcons and the sixth-worst completion percentage over expected (minus-3.1%). However, the Falcons have not faced a QB like Josh Allen, whom coach Raheem Morris referred to as "a problem everywhere." -- Marc Raimondi
Stat to know: Falcons RB Bijan Robinson has five straight games with 100 yards from the line of scrimmage dating back to last season. That's tied with 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey for the longest active streak in the NFL. -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: The Falcons will generate multiple 30-plus-yard gains on plays where they use motion at the snap. They use motion at the snap 53% of the time (second in the NFL), and the Bills are allowing 0.23 EPA per play vs. motion at the snap, third most in the NFL this season. -- Walder
Fantasy nugget: The Bills' defense has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to WRs this season. Drake London did have 10 targets and a season-high 25 fantasy points in Week 4, but this isn't a favorable matchup. Buffalo's defense will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss and could make things tough for second-year QB Michael Penix Jr. See Week 6 rankings. -- Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills are 0-3 ATS in their past three games, their longest ATS losing streak since Weeks 5-10 of 2023 (six straight). Read more. -- ESPN Research
Maldonado's pick: Bills 34, Falcons 31
Moody's pick: Bills 35, Falcons 21
Walder's pick: Bills 30, Falcons 20
FPI prediction: BUF, 61.0% (by an average of 4.6 points)
