The Buffalo Bills are 16-point favorites over the New Orleans Saints for Sunday's game at Highmark Stadium on the Sunday. Kickoff is set for 1 pm and the game will air on CBS.
Here are additional notes for the game:
- Bills have won 13 consecutive home regular season games
- Sean McDermott is 21-7 against first-year coaches
- Bills have scored 30+ points in 12 of the last 13 games Josh Allen has 1+ pass attempt
- Saints are trying to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2012
This is a beefy ask on the outright price, with Buffalo listed as a -1500 moneyline favorite. That means you'd need to wager $1,500 to win $100. Too expensive for my blood.
That price tag comes with an implied win probability of 93.75%. The Bills are rested and ready after a mini bye and should cruise to an easy win.
Buffalo 29, New Orleans 13
This is back-to-back road trips across the country for the Saints, while the Bills will be rested for 10 days having played on a Thursday. That's a brutal combination. But the Bills are also the best team in the league. This is going to be ugly. Josh Allen lights up the Saints.
Pick: Bills 35, Saints 10
Another week, another "moral victory" for a steep underdog at Buffalo.
Florio's pick: Bills 24, Saints 14.
Simms's pick: Bills 34, Saints 17.
Scroll to see the best photos as the Buffalo Bills prepare for Week 4 of the NFL season at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Landon Jackson (94). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Travis Clayton (67). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Travis Clayton (67). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (62). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joe Andreessen (44), Dorian Williams (42). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Matt Prater (15). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Deone Walker (96). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Brandon Codrington (29). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ryan Van Demark (74). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Javon Solomon (56). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
David Edwards (76). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Bobby Babich. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Bobby Babich. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Travis Clayton (67). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Deone Walker (96). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Deone Walker (96). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Javon Solomon (56), Ryan Nielsen. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Deone Walker (96), Marcus West. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
A.J. Epenesa (57). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Zion Logue (93). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Zion Logue (93). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Zion Logue (93). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Andre Jones Jr. (59). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
T.J. Sanders (98). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (62), James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4), Frank Gore Jr. (20). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4), Frank Gore Jr. (20). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4), Frank Gore Jr. (20). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Frank Gore Jr. (20). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
T.J. Sanders (98). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Jordan Phillips (52), Nick Lacey. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Jordan Phillips (52). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Tre'Davious White (27). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Tre'Davious White (27). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Reggie Gilliam (41). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Reggie Gilliam (41). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ryan Van Demark (74), Aaron Kromer. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Shane Buechele (6). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Connor McGovern (66). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joey Bosa (97), Ryan Nielsen. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joey Bosa (97). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Elijah Moore (18). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Tre'Davious White (27). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joshua Palmer (5), Adam Henry. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joe Brady. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joe Brady. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Shane Buechele (6). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Reid Ferguson (69). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Austin Gund. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Alec Anderson (70). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
O'Cyrus Torrence (64). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Greg Rousseau (50). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Travis Clayton (67). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taylor Rapp (9). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Christian Benford (47). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Cole Bishop (24). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Terrel Bernard (8). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Tre'Davious White (27). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Tre'Davious White (27), Cole Bishop (24). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taylor Rapp (9). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taron Johnson (7). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Tre'Davious White (27). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Greg Rousseau (50). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Bobby Babich. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
DaQuan Jones (92), Zion Logue (93). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
T.J. Sanders (98), Deone Walker (96). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Zion Logue (93), DaQuan Jones (92). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Zion Logue (93). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Zion Logue (93). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
DaQuan Jones (92). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taron Johnson (7), Christian Benford (47). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17), Mitchell Trubisky (11), Shane Buechele (6). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dawson Knox (88), Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Shane Buechele (6). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Elijah Moore (18). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joshua Palmer (5). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joshua Palmer (5). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Curtis Samuel (1), Kelsey Harkins. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0), Kelsey Harkins. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Frank Gore Jr. (20). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joshua Palmer (5). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Elijah Moore (18). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Tyrell Shavers (14). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joe Brady. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Jackson Hawes (85). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Jackson Hawes (85). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keleki Latu (83). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Jackson Hawes (85), Keleki Latu (83). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keleki Latu (83). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Reggie Gilliam (41). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keleki Latu (83). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Rob Boras. Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26), James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Elijah Moore (18). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Week 4 Practice, September 25, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
The Saints don't have much of a run defense or downfield passing game. That plays right into the hands of Josh Allen and James Cook as Buffalo rolls a non-conference foe at home.
Pick: Bills win 34-17 and cover the spread.
Buffalo failed to cover at a 12.5-point spread in Week 3, but that was a division rival. New Orleans trailed 38-6 at halftime in a blowout loss at Seattle. This season, NFL teams are 1-4 ATS as an underdog of eight points or more. Knowing that, the Saints have to run a little bit against a Buffalo defense that allows 146 yards per game on the ground.
Pick: Buffalo 31, Saints 16
What we're hearing on the Saints: Saints coach Kellen Moore expressed his confidence in starting QB Spencer Rattler following the loss to the Seahawks. Moore indicated the Saints wouldn't be following the Giants' lead and switching quarterbacks anytime soon, and said Rattler realizes how much confidence the team has in him. He thinks Rattler -- who is 0-9 as a starter dating back to last season -- is headed in the right direction. "It's frustrating because Spencer hasn't been able to get a win in this league, and he's earned it and he deserves it. He's done so much good," Moore said. -- Katherine Terrell
What we're hearing on the Bills: Despite sitting on the largest point spread of the season, per ESPN BET, the emphasis from the Bills is that they are treating Sunday's game like any other. QB Josh Allen said he expects the Saints "to have their ears pinned back. They want to win as badly as anybody in the league right now. And again, there's no easy games in this league." The Bills have a 13-game home winning streak in the regular season but could be without three starters (DT Ed Oliver, LB Matt Milano and RT Spencer Brown) due to injuries. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills have gone eight straight games without a turnover (including the playoffs), which is tied with the 2024 Chiefs for the longest streak with zero turnovers since 1933. -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Saints LB Demario Davis will lead the NFL in combined tackles in Week 4. The Bills will get out to a lead so large that they will run the ball a ton. And Davis ranks second among linebackers in tackle rate versus run plays, earning a tackle or assist on 29% of opponent's runs. -- Walder
Fantasy nugget: The Bills are heavy home favorites against the Saints, which bodes well for RB James Cook. He has had 18-plus touches and 20-plus fantasy points in three straight games. Buffalo's offensive line, the league leader in run block win rate (76.6%), should dominate a Saints front that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs. In deeper formats, don't overlook fellow RB Ty Johnson as a potential sleeper. See Week 4 rankings. -- Moody
Betting nugget: Rattler is 1-8 ATS in his career as a starter.
Maldonado's pick: Bills 35, Saints 14
Moody's pick: Bills 34, Saints 16
Walder's pick: Bills 33, Saints 7
FPI prediction: BUF, 80.5% (by an average of 13.1 points)
Hanford: Bills (-16.5)
The Bills burned me on a double-digit spread last week, so I'm wincing as I take them again, but I don't see a scenario in which the New Orleans offense can keep pace with Josh Allen and Buffalo. Opposing QBs have diced up the Saints defense through the first three weeks.
The Bills have put up at least 30 points in every game, and the Saints are averaging 15 points per game. This could be seen as a trap game ahead of a prime-time divisional clash with New England in Week 5, but I'm trusting the massive gap between these two teams to prevail in a blowout win for Buffalo.
O'Donnell: Saints (+16.5)
Simply put, this is too large a spread to feel comfortable laying the points regardless of how good the favorite is. The Bills are also a mediocre 11-9 ATS at home since 2023.
Allen and Co. are likely to put this game out of reach early, leaving way too much room open for a backdoor cover against a Saints team with nothing to lose. Their blowout in Seattle last week featured a blocked punt setting up an easy score and a punt return for a touchdown.
The Bills can cover this spread, but I'll err on the side of the points if New Orleans can avoid mistakes in the third phase of the game.
Predictions
Saints: O'Donnell, Sobleski
Bills: Davenport, Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton
Why Ali picked the Bills: Simply put, a Saints win in Buffalo on Sunday would amount to one of the biggest upsets in NFL history. The Bills have the edge -- in most cases, a significant one -- in nearly every area. Don't believe me? Just look at all of Buffalo's four- and five-star advantages in NFL Pro’s matchup breakdown. But it's not all doom and gloom for New Orleans. The advanced metrics reveal two potential ways for the Saints to keep things interesting at Highmark Stadium. First, the Bills' defense ranks among the league's worst at stopping the pass while blitzing. Unfortunately for New Orleans, though, Buffalo blitzes at one of the lowest rates in the league. So, maybe scratch that one. Second, the Bills have allowed the most touchdowns (three-way tie) and the seventh-highest passer rating on quick throws this season. Similarly, though, that sample size is small, with Buffalo seeing the fourth-fewest total quick attempts through Week 3, per Next Gen Stats. Can Spencer Rattler repeatedly dink and dunk New Orleans down the field for six? I could see it happen once ... maybe even twice. But it seems unfair to ask the second-year QB, who's still seeking his first NFL win (0-9), to keep pace with reigning MVP Josh Allen for 60 minutes.
