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Game Predictions | Bills at Chiefs | Week 14


The Bills (6-6) are 1.5-point underdogs when they travel to Kansas City (8-4) to face the Chiefs at 4:25 pm on CBS.

For the latest point spreads, check FanDuel.

The Bills sit in 11th place in the AFC playoff race. While the Chiefs are in third place in the AFC. Both teams lost in their last games - Buffalo lost to Philadelphia in overtime 37-34 in Week 12 and the Chiefs lost to Green Bay in Week 13 27-19.

Additional notes for this week ...

  • The Bills are 8-0 after their bye week since 2015 (best record in NFL during that span)
  • Since 2018, the Chiefs have an NFL-best record of 17-3 after a loss
  • The Bills are 22-10 after a loss (second-best record in NFL) since 2018
  • The Chiefs are 0-4 in 2023 when allowing 21 points or more
  • Patrick Mahomes is 3-2 against the Bills including the playoffs
  • Josh Allen has won two of his last three starts against the Chiefs
  • Allen is 14-2 in December/January regular season games since 2020
  • Mahomes is 14-3 in December/January regular season games since 2020
  • Sean McDermott and Andy Reid are 3-3 when coaching against each other (including playoffs)
  • The Bills are 1-5 on road in 2023 including the game in London

Storyline to watch: The Bills have beaten the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in the regular season in each of the past two seasons in large part because Buffalo QB Josh Allen (six touchdowns, zero interceptions) has outplayed Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes (four TDs, four INTs). The Chiefs had been playing well defensively but had their two worst games on that side of the ball in the past two weeks, casting doubt on whether they can prevent Allen from having another big game this time around. -- Adam Teicher

Bold prediction: Both the Chiefs and Bills are winless this season when allowing more than 20 points, but that will change Sunday. The Bills have scored 30-plus points in their past two games and allowed 24 or more in three of their past four. Only once in the five meetings between Mahomes and Allen has one of the teams not scored at least 20 points (17 by the Bills in Week 6 of 2020). -- Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: Bills receiver Stefon Diggs needs 31 receiving yards for 1,000 on the season, which would make him the third Buffalo player with four seasons of 1,000 receiving yards (Andre Reed and Eric Moulds) and the first to do it consecutively.

Matchup X factor: Chiefs cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and L'Jarius Sneed. Truthfully, the Bills have the better offense -- and passing offense -- in this crucial contest. The Chiefs' corners will have to slow down the Buffalo attack to give Kansas City's struggling offense a shot to keep up. -- Walder

What's at stake: Buffalo has to find a way to win this one. It would give the Bills a 33% chance to still make the playoffs. But a loss puts them in real trouble, dropping their chances to 7%. The Chiefs are looking good in the AFC West no matter the outcome, but their chances to earn a playoff bye can jump to 36% (win) or fall to 9% (loss).

Betting nugget: The Bills are 6-0 outright after a bye under coach Sean McDermott (2-2-2 ATS). The Bills are 6-12-2 ATS with extra rest under McDermott.

Moody's pick: Bills 29, Chiefs 24

Walder's pick: Bills 28, Chiefs 20

FPI prediction: BUF, 54.5% (by an average of 1.6 points)

The Jenga tower is going back up in Buffalo.

Florio: Bills, 27-24.

Simms: Bills, 24-21.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I am not giving up on this Bills team until they are mathematically eliminated. But let's at least acknowledge that they face an uphill climb. DVOA gives Buffalo a 12.4 percent chance to get in. The Bills face the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to the betting markets. It really feels like they need to win this game or next week's game against the Cowboys and then sweep the final three (at the Chargers, the Patriots at home, at the Dolphins).

As for the Chiefs, I have serious concerns about this team. I thought they might be able to get on a roll, but the defense got lit up last week in a loss to the Packers. The good news is they could get linebacker Nick Bolton back for this one.

I initially was leaning Bills here, but the line dipped, and Patrick Mahomes has generally been good in these spots. When favored by three points or fewer, the Chiefs are 12-6 against the spread with Mahomes. I think Kansas City takes care of business.

The pick: Chiefs (-1.5)

This is a BIG game coming on Sunday -- the Bills are 6-6 and on the verge of elimination, while the Chiefs are 8-4 and on the verge of losing a chance at gaining the No. 1 overall seed. So both teams are desperate for a win here. It's probably going to be a hard-fought, close game with both teams looking to run the heck out of the ball. Buffalo needs to slow down Isiah Pacheco, bracket Travis Kelce and force Patrick Mahomes' wide receivers to step up in this spot. An Andy Reid-Sean McDermott matchup (Reid once fired McDermott, people forget that!) is always spicy. I like the Bills coming off the bye to find a way to win this one and open up the chances of them making a playoff run.

Pick: Bills + 1.5 at Chiefs

The Bills come off the bye, while the Chiefs come off a tough loss to the Packers on the road. The Bills need this in the worst way for their playoff hopes, while the Chiefs need it for seeding. This will be a high-scoring game, which will be won by the Chiefs late. It will be a classic.

Pick:Chiefs 34, Bills 33

I assume this will be everyone's favorite underdog pick of the week. I get why. The Bills are way better than their 6-6 record. They need to win games. But it's not like the Chiefs aren't also good and not playing for anything. If they keep winning, the No. 1 seed is still a reasonable goal. I'm fine going with the Chiefs at home.

Pick: Chiefs -1.5 over Bills

The Bills and Chiefs haven't had the usual automatic explosive offenses this year. The numbers still go up with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, but the eye test says they are not the dominant passing and rushing forces from recent seasons. Buffalo is working to stretch the field better all-around, while Kansas City is learning it needs to lean more on the run with the passing compressed by shaky downfield connections. The Chiefs get a little more creative and can shore up their defense a little easier than the Bills.

Pick:Chiefs win 30-23 and cover the spread.

The Bills have lost three of their past four games and had a bye week to regroup with a tough schedule ahead. The Chiefs have lost three of their last five outings while averaging 19.4 points per game in that stretch.

As O'Donnell explains, the Bills need this get-right game a little more than the Chiefs as they straddle .500. With that said, we're going to wonder if Kansas City will make an early playoff exit if it fails to score 20 points for the third time in the last four weeks.

O'Donnell likes a more desperate Buffalo squad to win outright.

"I've been aboard the 'Josh Allen's Bills will finally win the Super Bowl this year' boat for too long. And this is it. This is my last cast into Lake Erie after sitting for years with my fishing rod in hand hoping to catch the largest walleye ever," O'Donnell said.

"Both teams have its backs to the wall coming off losses, but the Bills are much worse off. The implications hanging overhead—Chiefs potentially losing more ground in the race for the AFC's No. 1 seed and the Bills shockingly clinging to playoff hopes—make this a de facto playoff game here in Week 14.

"I don't know what to make of Mahomes and the Chiefs' offensive struggles right now, but I still consider them title contenders regardless of this game's outcome. The Bills need this, right bloodydamn now, and I'm going to take them straight up—the points are simply an added bonus in this scenario—in belief that a win will keep my boat afloat long enough to keep my line in the water."


Davenport: Chiefs

Gagnon: Chiefs

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Chiefs

Moton: Chiefs

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Bills

ATS Consensus: Chiefs -2.5

SU Consensus: Chiefs

Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bills 24

Why Gennaro is taking the Chiefs: We all circled this matchup when the NFL schedule was released back in May, though nobody anticipated these two teams would enter the game with 10 combined losses. Strange days indeed, as the Chiefs' defense is better than their offense, while the Bills aren't even in the current AFC playoff field. But in a quarterback league that's currently ravaged by quarterback injuries, the football gods owe us an enticing display from two of the position's very best -- Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes -- and I think we'll get it! Wishful thinking? Perhaps a bit, considering neither signal-caller is playing his best football in 2023. That said, these two always seem to bring out the best in each other, as evidenced by their numbers in five career head-to-head matchups:

  • Allen vs. Mahomes: 2-3 W-L, 334.2 total yards per game, 107.9 passer rating.
  • Mahomes vs. Allen: 3-2 W-L, 346.0 total yards per game, 103.5 passer rating.

In a coin-flip game, I'll play the Arrowhead angle.


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