The Patriots are a mess right now, but the Bills didn't look great in beating the Giants on Sunday night. That won't matter here. The Bills have owned the Patriots in recent years and this version of Bill Belichick's team is awful. Look for Josh Allen and the offense to get back on track here.
Pick: Bills 31, Patriots 14
The best betting strategy of the last two years: Fade the Patriots as underdogs. After last week's loss to the Raiders, the Patriots have now failed to cover as underdogs in 11 (!) straight games with Mac Jones as their quarterback. There are no more disclaimers necessary. This is just a flat-out terrible team. They're 1-5 and have been outscored by 80 points, which is second worst to only the Giants.
The Bills offense has looked terrible over the last two weeks. And their injuries on defense are legitimately concerning. Buffalo was lucky to eke out a win over the Giants on Sunday night.
Having said that, the Bills have owned the Patriots in recent years. They've won four straight against New England—all by at least 12 points—and now they get a Patriots team that is averaging 11.7 points per game. The Bills don't have to be perfect. Their C-game should be enough to cover this number.
The pick: Bills (-8.5)
The Bills have played six games. They've been great in three and pretty bad in three. I think the Bills are a very good team but top teams usually don't play poorly half the time. The Patriots certainly are not good, but one of these weeks they'll compete.
Patriots (+8.5) over Bills
... Most of our experts expect the Bills to go on an offensive onslaught against a division rival that they've beaten by 12 or more points in each of the last four meetings, which includes one playoff contest, but Gagnon pushed back on the consensus because of the Bills' struggles against the Giants' 28th-ranked scoring defense.
"Considering the state of Buffalo's defense from a health standpoint as well as that poor showing from the offense in Week 6, it's hard to get behind this team as a near-double-digit favorite on the road against a desperate and well-coached team. The Patriots know the Bills well, and they fought pretty hard in Las Vegas last weekend. I just don't see this being a blowout."
ATS Consensus: Bills -9
SU Consensus: Bills
Score Prediction: Bills 31, Patriots 16
The Bills will take no pity whatsoever on the overmatched Patriots.
Florio: Bills, 40-14.
Simms: Bills, 28-17.
Storyline to watch: The Bills' 13 takeaways are tied for the second most in the NFL, while the Patriots' 11 giveaways are tied for the third most. "Ball security is a top priority for us this week," New England coach Bill Belichick said. The Patriots have just three takeaways on the season, as their minus-8 turnover differential is tied for last in the NFL. The Bills are tied for 10th with a plus-4 turnover differential. -- Mike Reiss
Bold prediction: The Bills' defense will hold the Patriots to seven points or fewer and grab a fifth straight win over the Patriots. New England is averaging 12 points scored per game (second fewest) and ranks last in points per drive (1.0), while the Bills have held opponents to 14.8 points per game (third fewest). Also, the Bills' previous four wins over New England have each been by double digits. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Bills quarterback Josh Allen has made a habit of tearing up the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. In five career road starts at New England, Allen has thrown 12 touchdown passes and two interceptions, and posted an 83 Total QBR. That's the third-highest road QBR by any QB against a single opponent since 2006 (when the metric began).
What to know for fantasy: The only team that allows a higher rushing yards per carry than the Bills (5.4) is the Broncos (5.6). With the Patriots' offensive line ranked eighth in run block win rate and getting healthier, New England's running game could have success against Buffalo. -- Moody
Betting nugget: New England has failed to cover in nine straight games as an underdog, tied for the second-longest ATS losing streak as an underdog in the Super Bowl era. The Rams went 11 consecutive games as an underdog without covering spanning the 1995-96 seasons.
Moody's pick: Bills 31, Patriots 17
Walder's pick: Bills 27, Patriots 13
FPI prediction: BUF, 82.3% (by an average of 12.6 points)
The Buffalo Bills escaped with a win against Tyrod Taylor's Giants on Sunday night. Buffalo now faces a similarly ineffective New England Patriots offense. Josh Allen's Bills have only lost one game to New England since 2020, the infamous wind game in 2021.
Allen's offense has scored more than 30 points in three of its four games against the Patriots since. New England has its back up against the wall and has a significant talent deficit against Buffalo.
Score Prediction:Bills 27, Patriots 13
Why Ali is taking the Bills: Buffalo followed up its London letdown by getting shut out through three quarters by the Giants and their 29th-ranked scoring defense on Sunday night. Per NFL Research, that hadn't happened to the franchise in 82 straight games! In the Patriots, the Bills have yet another prime opportunity to work through what ails them. (Unless what truly ails them is Josh Allen's right shoulder.) Nothing is easy for New England these days, with injuries and self-inflicted errors turning their season sideways. Sean McDermott is 5-1 against Bill Belichick since Tom Brady's departure -- including 3-0 at Foxborough -- winning their three most recent meetings by double digits. And this Pats team is arguably more banged up and less talented than those previous editions were.