The Buffalo Bills (4-0) are 8.0-point favorites against the New England Patriots (2-2) in Sunday's AFC East clash at Highmark Stadium. The game will air on NBC's Sunday Night Football broadcast at 8:20 pm.
Here are additional notes on Bills-Patriots:
- Bills have won 14 consecutive home regular season games
- Patriots' six wins are the most by an AFC East opponent over a Josh Allen-led Bills team
- New England is 3-7 against the Bills since 2020
- Bills are 15-4 in primetime games since 2022
- Bills have won their last three home games against New England
- Josh Allen needs one win to become the first reigning MVP to start 5-0 since Aaron Rodgers in 2015
- Since 2023, New England is 0-8 when coming off a win in their previous game (per Covers.com)
The Bills don't show mercy when it comes to AFC East rivals, especially the Patriots. Buffalo is 15-1 SU in divisional home games since 2020. With a crazy crowd for Sunday Night Football, Bills Mafia will have plenty to celebrate after this one.
Final score: Buffalo 27, New England 18.
The Bills keep playing with their food. (Simms think the food will win.)
Florio's pick: Bills 30, Patriots 23.
Simms's pick: Patriots 27, Bills 24.
Scroll to see the best photos as the Buffalo Bills prepare for Week 5 of the NFL season at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Curtis Samuel (1). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
O'Cyrus Torrence (64). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4), Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Elijah Moore (18), Sean McDermott. Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Spencer Brown (79). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joshua Palmer (5), Joe Brady, Rob Boras. Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Cole Bishop (24). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Damar Hamlin (3). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Matt Milano (58). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4), Rob Boras. Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dane Jackson (23). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ja'Marcus Ingram (46). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Reggie Gilliam (41). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Damar Hamlin (3). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Jordan Poyer (21). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Shaq Thompson (45), Keonta Jenkins (49). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dane Jackson (23). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Jordan Poyer (21). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ryan Van Demark (74). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Cole Bishop (24). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Matt Milano (58), Terrel Bernard (8). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
DaQuan Jones (92), Ed Oliver (91). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Spencer Brown (79). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joe Brady. Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Spencer Brown (79). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Spencer Brown (79). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17), Joe Brady. Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitch Wishnowsky (19). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0), Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Greg Rousseau (50). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Brandon Beane. Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitch Wishnowsky (19), Sean McDermott. Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitch Wishnowsky (19). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
David Edwards (76). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11), Shane Buechele (6), Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Reid Ferguson (69), Mitch Wishnowsky (19). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4), Dawson Knox (88), Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86), Mitchell Trubisky (11). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dawson Knox (88), Rob Boras. Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Jackson Hawes (85), Joe Brady, Rob Boras. Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Terrel Bernard (8), Matt Milano (58). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11), Josh Allen (17), Shane Buechele (6). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Jackson Hawes (85). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86), Reggie Gilliam (41). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Shane Buechele (6). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Kristian Wilkerson (82). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11), Tyrell Shavers (14). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11), Kristian Wilkerson (82). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11), Kristian Wilkerson (82). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Kristian Wilkerson (82). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17), Joshua Palmer (5). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joshua Palmer (5). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Stephen Gosnell (89). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Elijah Moore (18). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitch Wishnowsky (19). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Tyrell Shavers (14). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Keon Coleman (0), Curtis Samuel (1), Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Mitchell Trubisky (11). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Terrel Bernard (8), Matt Milano (58). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Christian Benford (47). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
DaQuan Jones (92). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Landon Jackson (94), Joey Bosa (97). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Sam Franklin Jr. (28), Cam Lewis (39), Taron Johnson (7). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Tre'Davious White (27). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taylor Rapp (9). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Christian Benford (47). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Shaq Thompson (45). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
DaQuan Jones (92), Greg Rousseau (50). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Matt Milano (58). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Matt Milano (58), Terrel Bernard (8), Cole Bishop (24). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taylor Rapp (9). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
A.J. Epenesa (57). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Cole Bishop (24). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Matt Milano (58). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Curtis Samuel (1). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Taron Johnson (7), Ja'Marcus Ingram (46). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Cole Bishop (24), Tre'Davious White (27), Taron Johnson (7). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Will Greenberg, Maxwell Hairston (31). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Terrel Bernard (8), A.J. Epenesa (57), Ed Oliver (91). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Joey Bosa (97), Landon Jackson (94). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Deone Walker (96). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
T.J. Sanders (98). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Sean McDermott, Javon Solomon (56). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Sean McDermott. Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Tyrell Shavers (14). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4), Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Alec Anderson (70), Kendrick Green (53), Nick Broeker (63), Spencer Brown (79). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
James Cook (4), Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Ryan Van Demark (74). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
Dion Dawkins (73). Buffalo Bills Week 5 Practice, October 2, 2025 at the Buffalo Bills Training Center.
The Patriots impressed in blowing out Carolina last week, but this is a big step up in class. Facing the Bills at their place on a Sunday night is tough sledding. The Bills have been outstanding on offense and that will continue in this one. Look for Josh Allen to play big as the Bills win it.
Pick: Bills 31, Patriots 20
The Patriots' offense is hitting its expected stride with Josh McDaniels revving up Drake Maye and weapons who are suddenly looking better overall. They'll be ready to play tough for Mike Vrabel in this tough division test, but in the end, Josh Allen and James Cook will be too much for a defense that isn't as good on the road.
Pick: Bills win 34-27 but fail to cover the spread
The Bills are back at home on Sunday Night Football against the rival Patriots, who have been competitive under first-year coach Mike Vrabel. It's a fun quarterback matchup. Josh Allen has a (109.7) passer rating, and Drake Maye (109.4) is not far behind. The Bills have won the last four home meetings, but the last two have been one-score games. Look for New England to hang around into the second half.
Pick: Bills 30, Patriots 22
Patriots (+8) over Bills
The Bills are 4-0, but just 2-2 against the spread. There's no reason to worry about them, but they also aren't blowing everyone away. The Patriots weren't great for two weeks, they gave away a game in Week 3, and then looked much better in Week 4. This is a much bigger challenge. But they can compete.
New England has the fifth-best drive series conversion rate in the NFL, meaning its offense has been really efficient at moving the ball methodically. You could take that data with a grain of salt, because the Patriots haven't really played against quality defense yet, but I still think that's an encouraging sign for the offense. They managed only 14 points against Pittsburgh, but that was an outlier turnover game.
Meanwhile, Buffalo is 17th in the same metric defensively, despite playing the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints in three of their games. I continue to believe the Bills defense is average at best, and that's especially true given the current injury situation. Both Ed Oliver and Matt Milano are listed as questionable, and their statuses make a meaningful impact for Buffalo's front seven.
The Patriots went to Buffalo last December as a massive underdog and covered the spread because New England controlled the ball with long, methodical drives. I think a repeat could be in store. The possessions will be too long and slow for me to justify betting an over here, but it's a clear lean to New England at anything over a touchdown.
Verdict: Lean Patriots +7.5
What we're hearing on the Patriots: An unexpected injury issue popped up with one of the Patriots' best players, as starting DT Milton Williams was added to the injury report Wednesday as a limited participant because of his ankle. Then Williams didn't practice Thursday. He has played 72% of the defensive snaps through four games, has two sacks and has consistently created interior pressure. If he doesn't play, that could thrust Khyiris Tonga into a starting role next to Christian Barmore. -- Mike Reiss
What we're hearing on the Bills: How will the rushing offense, which has been key to start the season, respond to the challenge the Patriots' defense presents? RB James Cook has led Buffalo on the ground and has 100-plus yards in three straight games. New England, however, is tied for second in opponent rushing yards per game (77.5) and yards per rush (3.3). "[Cook] has such a really good understanding of what we're trying to do, and how the guys are blocking and reading it. And he's really special right now," offensive coordinator Joe Brady said. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Bills QB Josh Allen has 45 career games with both a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown, tied with Cam Newton for the most by any player in NFL history. -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Patriots rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson will record 64 or more rushing yards, doubling his current career high. Bills opponents have recorded a minus-14% pass rate over expectation this season, by far the lowest in the league. The Bills' defense induces opponents' runs. -- Walder
Fantasy nugget: Bills TE Dalton Kincaid continues to split snaps and routes with others in the position group. You want to prioritize him in favorable matchups, like this week's, which features one of the highest point totals on the slate. Kincaid catches passes from Allen in a Bills offense that ranks second in total yards per game. He faces a defense that gives up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. See Week 5 rankings. -- Moody
Betting nugget: The Patriots have covered four straight meetings with two outright wins as underdogs.
Maldonado's pick: Bills 38, Patriots 24
Moody's pick: Bills 34, Patriots 24
Walder's pick: Bills 31, Patriots 27
FPI prediction: BUF, 67.5% (by an average of 7.2 points)
Davenport: Bills (-8.5)
The Bills keep holding out difficult covers like Lucy with a football in the Peanuts cartoon, and I keep running at them. They didn't get the last two, but Buffalo has won three in a row by double digits and are at home this week.
And while the Patriots appear better than a year ago, that doesn't make them good.
Gagnon: Patriots (+8.5)
After three consecutive double-digit-point wins, I get the feeling Buffalo could be in for a bit of a letdown against a feisty division rival that put up a fight in a 24-21 loss to the Bills in Orchard Park last December.
The Bills are just 1-4 ATS in their last five divisional home games.
Predictions
Patriots: Gagnon, Hanford, Knox, Moton, Sobleski
Bills: Davenport, O'Donnell
Why Tom picked the Bills: I agree with Drake Maye that this will be a "checkpoint" game for the Patriots -- and I suspect they will ultimately be found wanting. New England has every right to roll into this one with some confidence, coming off a 42-13 rout of the Panthers. But on Sunday night, Maye's job will be keeping up with Josh Allen, and that's just a different sort of project entirely. Then there's the fact that Buffalo's most glaring weakness -- a 31st-ranked run defense -- isn't exactly something New England seems equipped to exploit, with Rhamondre Stevenson (4.0 yards per attempt) and TreVeyon Henderson (3.7 yards per attempt) heading up the 25th-ranked ground attack, especially if Ed Oliver and Matt Milano are back. Buffalo's been ruling this rivalry for long enough that it would be almost refreshing for Maye and Co. to pull themselves closer to equal footing, but it feels a bit premature to bank on that happening now.
