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Game Predictions | Bills at Commanders | Week 3


The Bills are 6.5 favorites as the team travels to FedEx Field to face the Washington Commanders.

Here's a look at what NFL analysts are predicting for Sunday's game.

"Our consensus and the public (80 percent) lean heavily toward Buffalo, but Washington has earned more respect than that," Moton said.

"Going into Week 3, the Commanders are tied with the Dallas Cowboys for a league-leading 10 sacks, and they finally have a viable offense with Bieniemy calling the shots. Last week, on the road, Washington came back from a 21-3 deficit to beat Denver 35-33.

"Josh Allen didn't turn the ball over against a bottom-tier Raiders defense in Week 2, but he'll make more mistakes in a matchup with the Commanders' aggressive pass rush. As a result, Buffalo will sweat out a close win at FedExField."


Davenport: Bills

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Bills

Moton: Commanders

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Commanders

ATS Consensus: Bills -6.5

SU Consensus: Bills

Score Prediction: Bills 28, Commanders 20

The Commanders are 2-0 and coming off an impressive come-from-behind victory over the Broncos on the road. The Bills got back on track last week against the Raiders, but this is a tough challenge for Josh Allen and especially his offensive line. Even so, I look for the Bills to go in and win a tight one.

Pick:Bills 24, Commanders 23

The Commanders have struggled to beat a pair of work-in-progress teams. The Bills showed great progress in making quick work of the Raiders.

Florio: Bills, 31-21.

Simms: Bills, 23-20.

Storyline to watch: Sunday's game will come down to who wins the battle outside the pocket: Bills quarterback Josh Allen or Washington's defense? Washington has allowed 16 dropbacks to be extended outside the pocket -- second most in the NFL -- but ranks fourth in completion percentage on those plays (33.3%). Meanwhile, Allen has thrown three touchdowns while outside the pocket -- tied for first in the NFL -- and has thrown for the fifth-most yards (79). -- John Keim

Bold prediction: The two teams will combine for at least 10 sacks. The Commanders are tied for the league lead in sacks with 10, but they have also given up 10 sacks (tied for second most). So, the Bills will have an opportunity to increase their sack total from three. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: The Bills have won eight of nine matchups against the Commanders since losing Super Bowl XXVI following the 1991 season. Seven of those eight wins have been by double digits (their only loss was on road in Week 15 of 2015).

Betting nugget:Sam Howell is 2-0 outright as an underdog in his career.

Moody's pick: Bills 27, Commanders 21

Walder's pick: Bills 33, Commanders 17

FPI prediction: BUF, 73.4% (by an average of 8.8 points)

New Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy did an outstanding job in last week's win over the Broncos. Based on EPA per drive, that offensive performance was better than any of Washington's offensive performances in 2022. The Commanders' screen game was cooking, and so far this season just 7.1 percent of Sam Howell's pass attempts have been tight-window throws. That speaks to a coordinator who is scheming things up.

The Bills bounced back from their Week 1 meltdown with a convincing win against the Raiders, but this is a tough spot—specifically because the Commanders pass rush could give the Bills offensive line problems. I think Buffalo wins, but I'll take the points.

The pick: Commanders (+6.5)

The Commanders have done well to take down the Cardinals and Broncos, but they face a much more functional team with a much tougher defense at home in the quest to start 3-0. Buffalo got back to its explosive offense last week at home and Josh Allen should be licking his chops to attack Washington with the deep ball as part of high passing volume.

Pick:Bills win 31-17 and cover the spread.

After a tough opening night loss to the Jets, the Buffalo Bills dismantled the Raiders in Week 2. The Bills have been a playoff team since 2019, and Josh Allen is a perennial MVP contender. Buffalo has a reliable defense, and Allen has more weapons on offense this season. 

The Washington Commanders had seven sacks last week, and their front four is the team's strength. If the Commanders steal a win here, chances are their elite front plays a leading role in that effort. 

Last week, Sam Howell and the offense exploded in the second half against Denver. Before that surge, the Commanders' offense was largely underwhelming against the Broncos and Cardinals. The Commanders are 2-0, but their opponents have yet to win a game this season. The Bills are in a different class than Denver or Arizona.

Prediction: Bills 24, Commanders 16

Why Ali is taking the Commanders:Sam Howell stockholders must be feeling pretty good after last Sunday's performance, when the 23-year-old orchestrated his second fourth-quarter comeback in as many weeks. With a stout, ball-hawking Buffalo defense coming to town, offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy will need to continue to scheme up creative ways to get the ball out of Howell's hands and into those of his deep list of playmakers. Just like last week: Get 'em in space, and let 'em YAC. If Howell stays disciplined and decisive, and the Commanders can pressure Josh Allen with just their front four, Washington scores the upset to hit 3-0 for the first time since 2005.

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