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Game Predictions | Bills at Eagles | Week 12


The Bills (6-5) are 3.0-point underdogs for this week's game in Philadelphia against the Eagles (9-1) according to FanDuel. The Eagles currently hold the NFL's best record.

This week's game starts at 4:25 pm and will air on CBS.

For the latest point spreads, check FanDuel.

Additional notes for this week ...

  • The Eagles are 4-0 at home in 2023 and have won seven straight games at Lincoln Financial Field
  • The Bills are looking for their first win in Philadelphia since 1996 (Nov. 10, 24-17)
  • Bills have five consecutive wins against NFC opponents
  • With Josh Allen at QB, the Bills are 19-5 vs. NFC opponents

Storyline to watch: The Bills are averaging more yards per game than the Eagles and have a plus-104 point differential compared to plus-61 for Philly. But Buffalo has five more giveaways on the season and has lost all of its games by six points or fewer, while the Eagles have found a way to win the close ones. -- Tim McManus

Bold prediction: Josh Allen's interception streak will come to an end. Despite facing the team with the best record on the road, Allen's career-high seven-game stretch with at least one interception in each game will come to a close. The offense and Allen's confidence took a big step in the right direction against the Jets, and that will continue in this big game. Plus, while the Eagles' defense has plenty to give the Bills a tough day, it has recorded only five interceptions this season, tied for the second fewest in the NFL. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: Allen has seven games with a passing and rushing TD this season, while Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts has six. Only four QBs have ever had eight such games in a season, and the record is nine (Kyler Murray in 2020).

Matchup X factor: Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas. He has provided a badly needed boost for the banged-up Bills defense and has allowed just 0.8 yards per coverage snap and recorded two interceptions in his three games with Buffalo. -- Walder

What to know for fantasy: The Eagles' running game holds a significant advantage with D'Andre Swift against a Bills defensive front that ranks 16th in run stop win rate. Swift has averaged 18.0 touches and 14.9 fantasy points per game this season. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Bills' Allen is 11-5-1 ATS as a road underdog in his career.

Moody's pick: Eagles 28, Bills 21

Walder's pick: Bills 28, Eagles 24

FPI prediction: BUF, 55.9% (by an average of 2 points)

The Eagles are playing on a short week after a road victory over the Chiefs on Monday night. The Bills are coming off an impressive victory over the Jets. Josh Allen looked good in that game, and he will in this one. He keeps it close, but the Eagles find a way late.

Pick: Eagles 31, Bills 30

The Philadelphia Eagles went into Kansas City and left with a win Monday night, which warrants some praise. That said, the Chiefs' wide receivers dropped passes in some extremely high-leverage spots. Philadelphia is 9-1 with a loaded roster, but it has had a few things bounce its way this season.

The Buffalo Bills need to go on a tear the rest of the way after their 6-5 start. The Eagles are giving up the fifth-most passing yards per game this season, so if Philadelphia has one weakness, it's its secondary. That gives Josh Allen a realistic path to carrying Buffalo to an upset in Philadelphia.

Score Prediction: Bills 26, Eagles 23

... Our crew thinks the Bills have too much to overcome against arguably the league's best team, but O'Donnell stands alone with the road underdog.

"I picked this game before the Eagles stunned the Chiefs in Arrowhead, but it's still not enough to sway me to the other side with the rest of the panel. Philly is the better team, but I'm in a position to double down on Buffalo trying to live up to expectations by winning a game of this magnitude.

"The Bills have some major issues to cover up, and that's not lost on me. But I'm still a sucker for Josh Allen and will roll with him almost any time I'm getting points."


Davenport: Eagles

Gagnon: Eagles

Hanford: Eagles

Knox: Eagles

Moton: Eagles

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Eagles

ATS Consensus: Eagles -3.5

SU Consensus: Eagles

Score Prediction: Eagles 28, Bills 23

Congratulations to the Bills for being the weirdest team in the NFL. After last week's win over the Jets, they have a plus-104 point margin on the season—fourth best in the NFL and second in the AFC. The Bills are fifth in overall DVOA and third on offense. When they don't turn the ball over, they are very good. When they do turn the ball over, they are very bad. Aren't you glad you come to me for analysis like that?

As for the Eagles, I loved Jalen Hurts's on-field interview Monday night after their win over the Chiefs. It was clear that he had no idea what had just happened or how the Eagles won that game. The defense (and Chiefs miscues) kept them in it, and with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on the outside, the Eagles are always one play away from scoring—even on a night when the offense was having all kinds of issues.

The Eagles are 23-2 in Hurts's past 25 regular-season starts. I think they are a very good team. I don't think they're a juggernaut. And the Bills are the more desperate team. I think this one comes down to the wire.

The pick: Bills (+3)

Philly's biggest edge comes from the fact that they've made first and 10 into first and 8.5.

Florio: Eagles, 28-21.

Simms: Eagles, 24-21.

The Bills should like this matchup against a weak pass coverage team because of involving receivers all across the field, with Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid now helping Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs most. But Philadelphia can also win with pressure in key situational moments. Sean McDermott used to work for the Eagles, and the zone looks will keep this from being a high-scoring game. Philadelphia is better positioned to grind out a physical victory at home.

Pick: Eagles win 24-22 but fail to cover the spread.

The Eagles have a short week to get ready for a hit-or-miss Buffalo team that is 1-3 S/U on the road this season. The Bills also have a tough matchup against Kansas City in Week 13. The Eagles are 4-1 S/U when they get four or more sacks. Look for this defense to turn up the pressure on Josh Allen. Jalen Hurts does the rest, and the Eagles build momentum heading into the NFC championship rematch against San Francisco.

Pick: Eagles 28, Bills 21

Why Brooke is taking the Eagles: No team is playing better all-around football than the Eagles right now, with our last impression of them being a near-perfect half to complete a comeback win at Arrowhead. But there's also no time to get complacent amid a gauntlet in the schedule. Jalen Hurts has played exceptionally well since Week 7, completing 72.8 of his passes and throwing 12 TD strikes against just two picks -- not to mention his four rushing scores. That starting point is about the same time the Bills began their slump, but Josh Allen looked much better last week under new OC Joe Brady and it's possible he takes another positive step against Philly's bottom-five pass defense. Even if Allen's clicking with Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Co., will it be enough to match a red-hot Hurts at the Linc? The 8 Ball reads: Outlook not so good.


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