The Buffalo Bills (3-1) are 1.5-point underdogs heading into Sunday's game against the Houston Texans (3-1) in NRG Stadium. The game will air at 1 pm on CBS.
Here are some additional notes about this battle of division leaders:
- Bills have not won a game in Houston since Nov. 19, 2006 (24-21)
- Josh Allen has a 9-1 record when he plays teams ranked in the top five in passing defense. Houston ranks fourth.
- Josh Allen is 22-8 in games following a loss per Action Network
Are the Texans ready to beat an elite team? Since their resurgence started, it hasn't really happened.
Florio: Bills, 27-24.
Simms: Texans, 30-27.
The Buffalo Bills will look to rebound from a lopsided 35-10 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night, but they face a tough task on the road against another playoff-caliber squad.
The Houston Texans laid an egg in a 34-7 loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3 and bounced back against the winless Jacksonville Jaguars last week.
Most of our crew picked Buffalo to shake off a bad loss and win a pick 'em Stefon Diggs revenge game. O'Donnell leaned on the numbers to back the Bills.
"This is essentially a pick 'em and that means we've got some history on our side. Since Josh Allen entered the league in 2018, only the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs have a better record coming off a loss. And since the 2020 season, the Bills are 14-4 coming off a loss.
"In the, albeit short, C.J. Stroud era, the Texans are 2-4-1 as home favorites against the spread and only 5-7-1 ATS off a win. That's a lot of numbers, I know, so let's talk football. The Texans are winning, and that's what matters, but they don't look great right now.
Predictions
Davenport: Bills
Gagnon: Bills
Hanford: Bills
Knox: Bills
Michelino: Texans
Moton: Bills
O'Donnell: Bills
Sobleski: Texans
ATS Consensus: Bills +1
Score Prediction: Bills 28, Texans 24
Why Brooke picked the Texans: This is my matchup of the week in terms of quarterback play. Allen is the early MVP front-runner -- having yet to throw an interception this season -- and is looking to rebound from a Week 4 dud. It won't be easy against DeMeco Ryans' defense, which has allowed a league-low 57.3 completion percentage to opposing QBs and just 161 pass yards per game (fourth in the NFL). Allen's history suggests he'll be fine: He is 9-1 against top-five pass defenses since 2020, with 260.1 pass yards per game, 27 pass TDs, five INTs and a 106.1 passer rating in those games. Allen has found success this season by spreading the ball around after Buffalo parted with his No. 1 receiver from last season, Stefon Diggs, who is now one of the apples of C.J. Stroud's eye in Houston. Like Allen, the second-year QB is lighting it up through the air in 2024, finding Nico Collins and Diggs on the regular, but faces a stout defensive outfit. How will the absence of Von Miller, who has three sacks in four games but now must serve a four-game suspension, impact Buffalo's pass defense, which has allowed just 86 receiving yards per game to opposing receivers (fewest in the NFL) this season?
Houston also benefits from Joe Mixon's likely return after the running back missed the last two games. With Mixon in Weeks 1 and 2, the Texans averaged 144 rush yards and 4.6 yards per carry. Without him in Weeks 3 and 4, they averaged 69.5 rush yards and 3.5 yards per attempt. With Buffalo allowing the third-most rush yards (156.5) and most yards per carry (5.7), Houston would be wise to lean on the veteran running back.
Nico Collins is currently having a breakout season and is emerging as one of the top five receivers in the sport. However, something seems off about the Texans, despite their 3-1 record. The offense hasn't been consistent throughout the season. In Week 1, the run game excelled against Indianapolis; Joe Mixon ran 30 times for 159 yards. However, since halftime of the Chicago game in Week 2, Houston's offense has stagnated. It scored only three points against the Bears in the second half and managed just seven total in Minnesota in Week 3.
Just when it seemed like Houston had resolved its offensive issues in its strong first half against Jacksonville last week, it struggled in the second half, with five consecutive punts. Although C.J. Stroud led a game-winning drive in the final minutes for a key divisional victory, the Texans rank 23rd in offensive success rate and 14th in defensive success rate through the first four games, making them average.
The absence of Mixon (he's been out for two weeks with an ankle injury) in the run game has been a factor, as well as the lack of sharpness in the offensive line and the uncertainty surrounding Laremy Tunsil's health. The offense is also facing more Cover 2 defenses this year than last season, which could be contributing to its struggles. Even Jacksonville, known for its aggressive man-to-man defense, used zone coverage heavily on Sunday.
The Texans lead the league in the percentage of offensive plays against Cover 2 defenses, a significant increase from their ranking of 27th last year. Buffalo excels in playing Cover 2 defense, its preferred scheme for multiple seasons. The Bills struggled against the Baltimore run game and had difficulties covering the middle of the field, which plays to Houston's advantage. However, Buffalo is currently operating at a higher level on both offense and defense, making it a strong choice against Houston in this matchup.
Verdict: Bet Bills moneyline (-108).
The Stefon Diggs revenge game will be a real thing, as the former Bills wide receiver will play with a chip on his shoulder for the home team. This will be a busy passing duel between C.J. Stroud and Josh Allen based on the nature of these offenses, and in that scenario, Stroud has the more game-changing weapons, led by Nico Collins. Houston also will be willing to run the ball more in key situations to better set up Stroud.
Pick: Texans win 27-24
Bills storyline to watch: It may only be Week 5, but the Bills' defense is already dealing with a variety of challenges, the latest coming with Von Miller's four-game suspension this week. While middle linebacker Terrel Bernard (pectoral) has a good chance to make it back to the field after missing two games, Buffalo will likely see rookie safety Cole Bishop make his first NFL start -- Taylor Rapp is in concussion protocol -- while rookie Javon Solomon will see more of a role on the line with Miller out. A tough task will await in the Texans' offense with QB C.J. Stroud throwing seven passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in his past five home games. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Texans storyline to watch: Coach DeMeco Ryans said the Texans are "fired up" for this matchup but said his club won't lean into the storyline of two AFC contenders. The Bills have the third-highest point differential in the NFL (plus-39), while the Texans are 24th (minus-15), showing the Bills have been more complete through four weeks. The Texans have three wins, but each victory was secured in the last minute after they played sloppy throughout. -- DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: If Josh Allen doesn't throw an interception, it will be the longest streak by a Buffalo quarterback to start a season in franchise history.
Bold prediction: Texans wide receiver Tank Dell has 85-plus receiving yards and a touchdown. I'm waiting for the Dell breakout game, and it is coming. The second-year wideout still has a strong 69 open score this season, a sign that his reduced production is likely more a product of increased target competition. -- Walder
Fantasy X factor: Texans running back Joe Mixon. Buffalo's defense is allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs this season, making it a great matchup for Mixon. He has been rehabbing an ankle sprain for a few weeks, and there was optimism he could return for Week 4 after practicing. He was ultimately ruled out, but this matchup would be perfect for Mixon's return. -- Moody
Betting nugget: Allen is 27-18-2 ATS in his career on the road (13-7-1 ATS as road underdog).
Kahler's pick: Texans 27, Bills 21
Moody's pick: Bills 27, Texans 23
Walder's pick: Texans 27, Bills 24
FPI prediction: BUF, 56.0% (by an average of 2.2 points)
This is one of the best games of the week. The Bills are out on the road for the second straight week and didn't look good in losing to the Ravens. The Texans haven't been dynamic on offense, which many expected before the season. Look for Josh Allen to come in here and win a shootout with C.J. Stroud.
Pick: Bills 30, Texans 28
This is the best matchup of the week since the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans are bonafide Super Bowl contenders after the first four games of the year. Josh Allen struggled against Baltimore but should have more success playing in Houston's dome.
The Bills' biggest concern is their defense, which could not get off the field against the Ravens. Will they have an answer for C.J. Stroud? Will Stefon Diggs have a massive revenge game against his former team?
That remains to be seen, but Buffalo has the better quarterback, and Allen will likely use his legs a lot in this contest to help move the chains. Take the Bills to get the road win in Houston and improve to 4-1.
Score Prediction: Bills 28, Texans 24
