The Buffalo Bills (5-4) are 7.0-point favorites according to FanDuel as they prepare to host the Denver Broncos (3-5) at Highmark Stadium on Monday Night Football.
For the latest point spreads, check FanDuel.
Notes for this week ...
- The Bills are undefeated at home in 2023 (4-0); Team's last loss at home was Nov. 13, 2022 vs. Minnesota
- Broncos are 1-2 on the road in 2023
- Denver has lost seven consecutive Monday Night Football games (per ESPN)
Below is a list of expert picks for this week's game.
Storyline to watch: Both of these offenses are looking to buck some unwanted trends. For the Bills, they're looking to win the turnover battle for the first time since Week 4; on the Broncos' side, prime time has not been kind to quarterback Russell Wilson, who is averaging 12 points per game in five prime-time starts with Denver -- the fourth lowest through a player's first five prime-time starts with a franchise since the merger in 1970. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Bold prediction: Von Miller will do his best to remind his former team why he is one of the best defensive players in the franchise's history by recording two sacks. Miller has just one quarterback hit and no sacks since his return last month from a torn ACL he suffered during the 2022 season, but this is the first time he has faced the Broncos since Denver traded him just before 2021 trade deadline. Miller had all eight of his Pro Bowl seasons with the Broncos, totaled 110.5 sacks in his 10 years with the team and turned in one of the best defensive performances in Super Bowl history when he was named MVP of Super Bowl 50 -- the last postseason game the Broncos played in. -- Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Broncos have lost seven consecutive "Monday Night Football" games, the second-longest active streak in the NFL (the Giants have lost eight straight).
What to know for fantasy: The Broncos have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. After Dawson Knox's injury, fantasy managers should start Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid, who has scored 15 or more fantasy points in three consecutive games. You shouldn't overlook James Cook, because no other defense gives up more fantasy points per game to running backs than the Broncos. -- Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills are 0-5 ATS in their past five games, the longest active streak in the NFL and the Bills' longest streak since a six-game streak from 1976 to '77.
Moody's pick: Bills 24, Broncos 20
Walder's pick: Bills 30, Broncos 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 78.9% (by an average of 10.8 points)
This is a must-win for the Bills, who have to get their offense going. The Broncos are coming off a bye, but they played well the last time out in beating the Chiefs. This is a tough challenge, though, on the road against a wounded team. I will take the Bills here to rebound with a strong offensive showing. Josh Allen will play faster and looser, which they need.
Pick: Bills 34, Broncos 17
Maybe the Broncos are actually going to be decent the rest of the way? They've played much better the past three weeks and are coming off a win over the Chiefs. The Bills just look mediocre. Maybe they're much better than mediocre and we'll see that, but I'm not laying more than a touchdown with them.
Pick: Broncos (+7.5)
The Buffalo Bills haven't put together a strong offensive performance in over a month. Since Week 4, they've scored an average of 20.2 points per game. Typically, teams with that scoring rate aren't favored by more than a touchdown and an extra point.
Consequently, a few of our experts confidently went against the consensus to pick the Denver Broncos for a cover ATS.
Gagnon acknowledged that Buffalo's offense can explode in any given week, but he also pointed out that the Bills have burned bettors for the past five weeks.
"Ever since hammering the Dolphins back on October 1, the Bills have gone 0-5 against the spread. Now they're giving up more than a field goal against a desperate, well-rested and still talented Broncos team that is operating on two weeks' rest and hasn't lost since Week 6? It's silliness, plain and simple.
"This could be a blowout, because that's always a possibility with the Bills. But there's a much better chance that it goes down to the wire."
ATS Consensus: Bills -7.5
SU Consensus: Bills
Score Prediction: Bills 30, Broncos 21
The Jenga tower still stands. For now.
Florio: Bills, 30-21.
Simms: Bills, 24-20.
I spent some time this week trying to decide whether it's finally time to fade the Bills. But I just can't get there. The main reason? I think their offense still has greatness within it. There's too much data to suggest as much. Take a look at the Bills' offensive numbers this year compared to last year:
The Bills are better this year in terms of expected points added per drive and success rate. They're averaging one fewer point per game than last season. I know some will point to the fact that they juiced their numbers against bad teams earlier this season, and that's partially true. But that happens every year.
Buffalo is in a bit of a rut—no doubt. But it still has Josh Allen. It still has Stefon Diggs. Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid is coming on. And the offensive line has been good enough. I still think this group will get it together and go on a run. And it'll have to be the offense that carries the Bills, because the injuries on defense are legitimately concerning.
The Broncos, meanwhile, beat the Packers and Chiefs before their bye. Their defense is playing a lot better than it did earlier in the season.
But I can't quit this Bills team. I feel like I say it every week, but this reallyfeels like a get-right game.
The pick: Bills (-7.5)
The Bills are back in prime-time after a Sunday Night Football loss to the Bengals. Buffalo is 4-0 S/U at home, but they failed to cover double-digit spreads against the Giants and Buccaneers. Denver took a two-game winning streak into the bye week, and the Broncos are 3-1 when they have one turnover or less.
Pick:Bills 27, Broncos 20
Why Gennaro is taking the Bills: In Week 3, the Broncos lost to the Dolphins by 50 points. In Week 4, the Bills beat the Dolphins by 28. So, the transitive property tells us that Buffalo should beat Denver by just over 11 touchdowns. And yet, according to my score prediction above, this game will be decided by a field goal. What gives? Well, a lot has changed since September, particularly with these two defenses. While Sean McDermott's unit has been decimated by injuries, Vance Joseph's group hasn't allowed 20 points in any of its last three games, with two of those coming against Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs. Taking advantage of the extra time to prepare during the Week 9 bye, Sean Payton draws another game effort out of his improving squad, but Denver ultimately falls short in this prime-time road challenge.