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Game Predictions | Bills vs. Cowboys | Week 15


The Bills (7-6) are 2.5-point favorites head into Sunday's game against the Dallas Cowboys (10-3) at Highmark Stadium. This week's game will air at 4:25 pm on FOX.

For the latest point spreads, check FanDuel.

The Bills are one of six AFC teams with a 7-6 record and sit in 11th place in the AFC playoff race. The Cowboys are tied with San Francisco and Philadelphia at 10-3 and sit in second place in the NFC playoff standings.

Here's a list of additional notes for this week:

  • Bills are 7-0 in 2023 when allowing 20 points or less
  • The Cowboys are on a five-game win streak and can clinch a playoff berth with a win
  • Bills are looking to win their third consecutive game against Dallas (2015, 2019)
  • Josh Allen is 19-6 against NFC teams in 24 career games; He's won five of his last six
  • The Bills are 15-0 when Josh Allen does not have a giveaway since 2020
  • Bills are 15-2 (8-1 at home) in December/January regular season games since 2020 - best record in NFL
  • In Week 15 or later, Buffalo is 10-0 in regular season games since 2020 - the NFL's best record in that span
  • The Bills are 9-2 in their last 12 games at Highmark Stadium - including postseason

Storyline to watch: This is a big game for both teams given the playoff implications involved. But this game could very well come down to which defense dealing with injuries can make more stops against offenses with the potential to put up big points. The Cowboys' offense leads the NFL in points per game (32.4), while the Bills are fifth (26.8). -- Alaina Getzenberg

Bold prediction: Bills quarterback Josh Allen will lead the Bills in rushing against the Cowboys and push for 100 yards. The Cowboys are one of seven teams not to allow a 100-yard rusher this season, but they have had issues with quarterbacks. Five times quarterbacks have had more than 30 yards rushing vs. Dallas, including 55 from Joshua Dobbs in a Week 3 loss to Arizona. Without nose tackle Johnathan Hankins, the Cowboys' run defense has a hole to fill, and Allen will take advantage. -- Todd Archer

Stat to know: Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has multiple passing touchdowns in seven straight games, tied with Tony Romo for the second-longest streak in Cowboys history (Don Meredith had 12 straight from 1965 to '66).

What's at stake: Big one here. In Dallas, a win would mean it has a 44% chance to take the NFC East and a 19% chance to finish with the No. 1 seed. A loss? Those numbers would be 20% and 3%, respectively. And the Bills could be chasing not only the playoffs (66% with a win, 30% with a loss) but also a division title (34% with a win, 13% with a loss).

What to know for fantasy: The Cowboys' secondary has allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards per game to opponents. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Bills are 2-7 ATS in their past nine games. Unders are 5-1 in the Bills' past six games.

Moody's pick: Cowboys 28, Bills 25

Walder's pick: Bills 27, Cowboys 23

FPI prediction: DAL, 50.3% (by an average of 0.2 points)

Don't misplace your helmet for this one.

Florio: Bills, 27-24.

Simms: Cowboys, 27-24.

The Cowboys have a terrific playmaking defense in terms of getting key interceptions from Daron Bland and others. Micah Parsons can also provide some tough pressure on Josh Allen. Dak Prescott remains sizzling for Dallas and shouldn't worry about any matchups for key players such as CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson. This also will be a chance to get Tony Pollard going on the ground to grind out a higher-scoring win on the road.

Pick: Cowboys win 27-24.

This is a huge game for the Bills as they push for a playoff spot, while the Cowboys are pushing for seeding. Both offenses have had success lately, but the Cowboys have really amped it up. I think the Bills' desperation will trump the Cowboys playing for a seed. Dallas is in, but Buffalo will get there. They start by winning a shootout here. Josh Allen beats Dak Prescott. 

Pick: Bills 33, Cowboys 30

This is a marquee matchup between two of the best teams in the league. The Dallas Cowboys lead the league in scoring and allow the fourth-fewest points per game.

The Buffalo Bills are fifth in the league in scoring while giving up the sixth-fewest points per game.

Buffalo needs to keep winning games to make the playoffs. The Bills took care of business in Kansas City last week, and now they get another tough draw. The Cowboys blew out the Eagles in prime time on Sunday night.

That puts the Cowboys in a traditional letdown spot on the road against a desperate Bills team. That's Buffalo's most significant edge over Dallas, which has one of the league's best, most complete rosters.

Score Prediction: Bills 27, Cowboys 24

The Cowboys are on an absolute tear. They beat the Eagles last week for their fifth straight win and have scored 30-plus in each of those victories. Dak Prescott is playing the best football of his career, and the Cowboys offensive line is dominating.

Last week couldn't have worked out any better for the Bills. They now have a 49 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to the New York Times model. This might feel like a must-win, but it's really not. If the Bills lose to the Cowboys but win their last three (at Chargers, home vs. Patriots, at Dolphins), they have over an 80 percent chance of getting in. The AFC East title is even still in play for the Bills. If they can pick up one game on the Dolphins in the next three weeks, that Week 18 matchup in Miami would be for the division.

The Cowboys are the more complete team, but in a coin-flip game, I'll take the Bills at home.

The pick: Bills (-1.5)

I was all over the Cowboys last week, but I'm going the other way this time.

The Cowboys are fresh off of an emotional statement win against their division rivals, and now have to go on the road to take on a desperate Bills squad.

Dallas is a warm-weather dome team that loves to play at home. Here they have to travel and play outdoors in cold conditions against a team that needs every win it can get to stay alive.

This is the perfect letdown spot for the visitors. I like the Bills to keep it going.

PICK: Bills (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points

Last week, the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills won their marquee matchups against the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, respectively.

Now, they clash in a big-time cross-conference contest that will impact the playoff picture in the NFC and AFC.

At 7-6, outside the playoff picture, the Bills should be the more desperate team, but the Cowboys look like the better squad right now. Also, keep in mind that Dallas has the best record leaguewide ATS (9-4).

Most of our panel picked Dallas to win outright, but O'Donnell, who picked Buffalo to pull off the minor upset last week, likes the Bills as surprising favorites in this spot.

"Just last week the Bills were underdogs in Kansas City while the Cowboys were favored over their rival, the reigning NFC champion Eagles. Both teams won, Dak Prescott is apparently the MVP favorite now (not in my book), and yet the clinging-to-playoff-hopes Bills are favored at home here.

"Maybe it's just the smell of the walleye I caught last week with the Bills' win over the Chiefs, but something smells fishy. Maybe oddsmakers actually see these teams the same way I do, and I'm willing to lay down these points for my flawed Super Bowl pick Bills as they expose the Cowboys the same way they exposed the Dolphins earlier this season.

"Them wagons have already been circled, but there's still room aboard this Bills bandwagon if you want a seat with me."


Davenport: Cowboys

Gagnon: Cowboys

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Cowboys

Moton: Cowboys

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Cowboys

ATS Consensus: Cowboys +2

SU Consensus: Cowboys

Score Prediction: Cowboys 29, Bills 26

Why Gennaro is taking the Bills: Is a wide-open MVP race there for Josh Allen's taking? Allen's counterpart in this game, Dak Prescott, is currently a leading candidate for the award, pacing the NFL with 28 touchdown passes. But Allen quietly leads the league in total touchdowns with 35. Now, what if Allen knocks off Prescott in the comfy, outdoor confines of Highmark Stadium? Remember, the Cowboys are a dominant 7-0 at home, but just 3-3 on the road -- and Dak's personal performance reflects that discrepancy. Meanwhile, Buffalo's quarterback has been a conquering hero at home. So, let's say Allen and Co. get the job done on Sunday. The Bills finish out the season with a pair of bottom-dwellers (the Chargers and Patriots) before the finale in Miami, which could be the marquee matchup of Week 18. If Allen closes the campaign on a tear, leading Buffalo back from the dead and into the postseason with five straight wins, that'd give him a pretty decent case for MVP honors, no?


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