The Bills are 7.0 point favorites this week according to Caesars Sportsbook as the team prepares to host the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium on Saturday night.
The Bills are 9-1 at home since 2020 in December and beyond.
Here's a list of game predictions from NFL analysts.
A lot has gone wrong for the Bills despite them currently being the AFC's top seed. Two of their most valuable defensive players (Micah Hyde and Von Miller) aren't coming back. They still haven't settled on a No. 2 cornerback. Their running game is erratic and their complementary receivers have disappointed enough to bring back Cole Beasley. Yet the Bills have been in so many games like this as a franchise the last three years, especially in the cold, and they understand what it means to play in massive December games. The Dolphins aren't there yet, even if they should cover in a loss like the Jets did a week ago.
Prediction: Bills 23, Dolphins 17
MDS's take: The Bills are the best team in the AFC, and they're going to take a big step toward the No. 1 seed on Saturday night.
MDS's pick: Bills 31, Dolphins 20.
Florio's take: The Dolphins have adopted a full-blown "serenity now!" approach to the elements awaiting them on Saturday night.
Florio's pick: Bills 34, Dolphins 21.
The NFL is better when it has characters, and Mike McDaniel is a character.
The Dolphins are the most interesting team in the league going into the final month of the season. Their loss to the 49ers a couple weeks ago was explainable. San Francisco has a great defense and makes a lot of opponents look bad. But last week? The Chargers don't have a great defense, yet their game plan for slowing the Dolphins' offense worked brilliantly. They pressed and disrupted Tyreek Hill within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, and they took away the middle of the field from QB Tua Tagovailoa. If the Bills are able to do the same, we'll have officially reached "blueprint" territory on how to stop Miami.
It feels like the Bills are getting slept on a bit. They've looked somewhat disjointed at times, but this is a 10-3 team that would be the one seed in the AFC if the regular season ended today. Buffalo's +132 point differential ranks second league-wide to only the Eagles.
This could go one of two ways for Miami. The Dolphins could go in the tank and be the team that got figured out. Or, they figure it out and the previous two weeks could be viewed as a rough stretch that forced them to find a Plan B. I'm betting on the latter but am not that confident about it. Miami scores enough to keep it close here.
The pick: Dolphins (+7)
I know the Dolphins are going to snap out of this slump soon, but something tells me this won't be the game.
I'd feel much more confident if this game were in Miami, but giving this Dolphins team a touchdown head start in a likely shootout is too much to pass up.
Miami in Buffalo in December? Riding with the Bills.
I'm ignoring what Tua did last week and focusing on how this is a divisional matchup that ended with the Fins winning the last time they met.
The Dolphins have lost two straight and they are now playing a third straight road game. That's brutal. The Bills lost to Miami in the first meeting, even though they dominated. Tua Tagovailoa has struggled the past two weeks and the conditions are supposed to be tough in this one. The Bills will win it as they play good defense and Josh Allen does his part.
Pick: Bills 27, Dolphins 17
A third straight road game is a tough spot to be in for the Dolphins. The Jets were getting too many points last week and covered (though barely, thanks to a late field goal), but the Jets had the defense to keep the Bills offense from putting the game away. The Dolphins don't have that defense and their offense hasn't looked good the past couple weeks either. I still think the Dolphins are a good team and the spread seems a bit too high.
Dolphins (+7) over Bills
The Dolphins have lost their last two, including a dreadful showing against the Chargers last week in which Miami's top-ranked pass offense managed to put up only 145 yards against a team missing half its defensive starters.
Though the Bills seem to be back on a Super Bowl-bound track, the offense hasn't looked like the early-season juggernaut it once was. Buffalo will try to maintain their grip on the No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs, but the Dolphins' recent slide has dropped Miami to one game ahead of the Patriots in the A.F.C. East. There's a 20 percent chance of snow for this nighttime kickoff in Buffalo. This would be a big momentum swinger for the Dolphins, and if they can keep it as close as the "butt punt" game in Week 3 (Miami won, 21-19), then 7.5 should be more than enough help.
Pick: Dolphins +7.5
How healthy will Tyreek Hill be for this game? Miami's offense sputtered in Week 14 and struggled in the running game, and Buffalo is going to be looking for payback from the Week 3 loss. The forecast also calls for snow showers. Josh Allen is 4-0 with 10 TDs and two interceptions against the Dolphins at home.
Pick: Buffalo 31, Dolphins 24