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Game Predictions | Bills vs. Dolphins | Week 4


The Bills are 3.0 favorites for this week's AFC East clash against the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium.

The Bills are 7-0 at home versus Miami since 2017, Sean McDermott's first year as head coach. Will their winning ways continue? Find out what the experts are predicting for Sunday's marquee matchup.

They feel destined to split the regular-season series, and to meet (again) in the playoffs.

Florio: Bills, 24-23.

Simms: Bills, 28-24

Storyline to watch: Whether the Bills can slow down the Dolphins' offense is the big question going into the game, and while Buffalo's ability to get pressure and turnovers will be key, its offense playing keep-away would help. Buffalo's offense is third in average time of possession (35:45). And while winning convincingly hasn't been a problem for either team, with the Dolphins outscoring their opponents by 59 points and the Bills outscoring theirs by 56, all three games between Buffalo and Miami last year were decided by three points or fewer. So another close game could happen. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Bold prediction: The Bills have not allowed 500 yards of offense in a regular-season game since Sept. 20, 2015, but that streak will end Sunday as the Dolphins -- who are averaging 550.3 yards per game -- continue to surge. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: Bills QB Josh Allen is 9-2 in his career against the Dolphins (including playoffs), his most wins against any team. He is a perfect 6-0 at home vs. Miami.

Moody's pick: Bills 35, Dolphins 31

Walder's pick: Dolphins 35, Bills 34

FPI prediction: MIA, 51% (by an average of 0.4 points)

The Dolphins are flying high after scoring 70 last week, with an offense that has looked so good so far. But Buffalo has owned this series in recent years, and they are coming off a nine-sack day against Washington. The defense looks much improved over a year ago. That matters. Josh Allen is also back on track. Bills take it. 

Pick: Bills 28, Dolphins 23

The Miami Dolphins should be on an all-time high headed into Week 3, following a historical offensive performance against the Denver Broncos. They became the first NFL team to score 70 points and accumulate 700-plus yards in a game.

In a matchup that features the league's two highest-scoring teams, the Dolphins will face their equal in offensive production.

With that said, Gagnon pumped the brakes on all the Dolphins buzz headed into this AFC East battle because of the Buffalo Bills defense, which ranks second in points and yards allowed.

"Over and over again, teams are building hype and then hitting a bump in the road. Buffalo in Week 1, Baltimore and Dallas in Week 3," Gagnon wrote. "The Bills have their bump out of the way, while the Dolphins are due to hit theirs.

"This spot makes sense after all of the hoopla generated with that 70-point showing against Denver. The Dolphins haven't faced a defense remotely as awesome as Buffalo's, and home-field advantage should be big for Josh Allen and Co. Sunday afternoon."


Davenport: Dolphins

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Dolphins

Knox: Dolphins

Moton: Dolphins

O'Donnell: Dolphins

Sobleski: Dolphins

ATS Consensus: Dolphins +3

SU Consensus: Dolphins

Score Prediction: Dolphins 34, Bills 31

Game of the week! Game of the year? I was skeptical of the Dolphins coming into the season. I was worried that one injury to a key player would make the whole operation crumble. But they've played games without left tackle Terron Armstead and without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle so far, and guess what? They haven't crumbled! The Dolphins piled up an easy 726 yards of offense last week against Denver and became the first team since 1966 to score 10 touchdowns in a game.

These two teams played twice in the regular season last year (and once in the playoffs when Tua Tagovailoa was out). In the first game, Tagovailoa left with what looked like a head injury, but then came back in. The Dolphins won, 21-19. In snowy conditions in Buffalo in Week 15, the Bills won, 32-29. Miami had 405 yards of offense in that game, but Buffalo's offense was even better.

The Bills have played 40 games (playoffs included) over the last three seasons, and only two teams (the Bengals in last season's playoffs and the Colts in 2021) have beaten them by more than a touchdown. It's a wildly impressive streak of competitiveness. I will not be surprised at all if Buffalo is amped up for this game and hands the Dolphins their first loss. But I can't dismiss what my eyes have seen with Miami's offense through three weeks. Until a defense shows it can really slow the Dolphins down, I'm rolling with them—especially since I'm getting three points.

The pick: Dolphins (+3)

... The Buffalo Bills are very good. They were very good last season, when they finished first in DVOA. They were good the year before that too. And they've been very good this season as well. The world watched them lose to the New York Jets in Week 1, then have been about perfect since. It's more fun to talk about a team scoring 70 points than it is to focus on a Bills defense that had nine sacks, forced five turnovers, scored on an interception return and had a shutout on the road until Washington decided on a meaningless field goal in the final minute.

I'll fade the hype this week. It's not being down on the Dolphins, but recognizing that the Bills are a lot better than they're getting credit for. The Bills are -2.5 and I'll gladly take them giving less than a field goal at home. And if the Dolphins go on the road and light up the Bills defense, get ready for the hype to go completely out of control.

Pick: Bills -2.5

Miami won the turnover battle in all three games last season, and Mike McDaniel's offense is clicking at an extraordinary level. Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in yards per attempt (10.1), and Josh Allen has taken just two sacks the last two weeks. Which defense takes the other quarterback out of their comfort zone?

Pick: Bills 34, Dolphins 31

The Dolphins and Bills should provide the expected epic battle between a red-hot offense and a scorching defense. The difference is Buffalo also can explode for big plays in its passing game with Josh Allen and Miami may be hurting too much at corner and wide receiver in relation to the hosts. Allen got his groove the past two weeks and the momentum carries here as the Bills restore themselves as AFC East favorites.

Pick: Bills win 30-27 and cover the spread

This is the most interesting game on the Week 4 slate. The Miami Dolphins scored 70 points against the Denver Broncos without Jaylen Waddle. Miami's mixture of innovative play calling and game-breaking speed will be hard for anyone to contain.

Buffalo lost a close, defensive-driven game to the New York Jets on opening day. The Bills have since blown out the Las Vegas Raiders and Commanders to get back on track. Miami and Buffalo split their two matchups last year, where the home team won by three points or less.

Score Prediction: Bills 27, Dolphins 24

Why Ali is taking the Dolphins: Miami has to be a bit peeved to find itself 2.5-point dogs after its mercy-rule-worthy demolition of Denver last Sunday. Seventy points! That's more than 18 teams have totaled through three games. But in the Bills, the Fins face perhaps the only AFC squad outside of Kansas City capable of slowing them down -- or, at the very least, keeping pace. Thanks to a deep and highly productive D-line, Buffalo boasts the highest QB pressure percentage (50.2%) in the league despite blitzing at the second-lowest rate (15.7%), per Next Gen Stats. The success up front has allowed Sean McDermott to play nickel more than any team this year by far (98.6% of snaps), which, in turn, has helped Buffalo generate a league-leading seven picks. The defense will do its damnedest to give Josh Allen & Co. an opportunity to match blows with Miami's early MVP candidates, but the Dolphins' overall team speed (including Tua's TTT) eventually exhausts and overwhelms Buffalo.

Fun Fact: The Dolphins and Bills have combined for 31 plays this year in which a player exceeded 18 mph, per NGS. Miami accounts for 27 of them.


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