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Game Predictions | Bills vs. Jets | Week 11


The Buffalo Bills (5-5) are 7.0-point favorites according to FanDuel as they prepare to host the New York Jets (4-5) at Highmark Stadium on Sunday at 4:25 pm.

For the latest point spreads, check FanDuel.

Notes for this week ...

  • Both teams enter this week on two-game losing streaks
  • The Bills have won three consecutive home games against the Jets
  • The Bills are 11-1 (including playoffs) against AFC East teams at Highmark Stadium since 2020
  • With a win, the Jets will sweep the Bills for the first time since 2016

Storyline to watch: Joe Brady's first game as interim offensive coordinator will come with quite the challenge going against a Jets defense that held Buffalo to 16 points in Week 1 and forced three QB Josh Allen interceptions and a fumble. How the Bills' offense looks under Brady and going against a defense that allows the third-fewest yards per play in the league (4.6) will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: The Bills have 18 turnovers this season, tied for the second most in the NFL. Buffalo has failed to win the turnover battle in six straight games, its longest such streak since 2012 (the Bills haven't gone seven straight without winning the turnover battle since 2003-04).

Matchup X factor: Jets cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. Denver showed last week that shutting down receiver Stefon Diggs can be an effective strategy against the Bills, who lack a super threatening No. 2 option. In Gardner and Reed, the Jets have the corners to do it. -- Walder

What to know for fantasy: While the Jets' secondary is formidable, New York has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game. The Bills' offensive line ranks second in run block win rate. So don't hesitate to get James Cook into your lineups. Also, feel confident in starting tight end Dalton Kincaid, who may be relied upon heavily against the Jets due to their stout secondary.

Betting nugget: The Bills are 0-6 ATS in their past five games, 0-5 ATS in their past four games as a favorite and 0-4 ATS in their past three games at home. 

Moody's pick: Bills 22, Jets 20

Walder's pick: Bills 23, Jets 13

FPI prediction: BUF, 79.6% (by an average of 11.1 points)

The Bills have a lot of issues. The Jets have offensive issues. New York beat Buffalo in Week 1 with a great defensive effort, and it seems to have Josh Allen's number. But the Jets are playing consecutive road games and they have little in terms of offense. Even so, I think they hang around here, but the Bills win a close one. 

Pick: Bills 22, Jets 20

I've been on the Jets practically every game this season because I don't like laying a lot of points against that Jets defense, but I think this could be a game in which the Bills take out their frustrations. They've been sloppy but also unlucky in things like fumbles recovered. They are still a good team ... I think. Firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey will be a wake-up call. The Bills will explode in this game, then we'll see if that actually leads to anything sustainable.

Pick: Bills -7

... Now, both teams should have a high sense of urgency coming off back-to-back losses.

We sided with the Bills, who field a more explosive offense that just needs to cut down on correctable mistakes. Hanford couldn't find any reason to believe the Jets will find the end zone for the first time since Week 8 and cover the spread.

"Firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey may not solve all (or any) of the problems for a team that's still moving the ball as well as anyone.

"However, it should galvanize the locker room. Perhaps it refocuses Allen or just sends a general wake-up call to everyone that the playoffs are far from a guarantee. I like Buffalo to rally for at least one week and win by more than a touchdown before facing the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys and Chargers in its next four contests."


Davenport: Jets

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Jets

Moton: Bills

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Bills

ATS Consensus: Bills -7

SU Consensus: Bills

Score Prediction: Bills 23, Jets 13

... It's just hard to believe that the OC change (it'll now be Joe Brady calling plays for Allen and Co.) is going to give the Bills a real boost.

As for the Jets, things aren't much better. They've gone 11 straight quarters without scoring an offensive touchdown.

Can I be honest with you all for a moment? Are we in a safe space? OK, thank you. I just need an emotional hedge here. The Bills have burned me week after week. I'm tired of sticking up for them only to be let down. It's like promising the teacher your kid's going to start behaving right, and then as soon as you leave the classroom, he launches a spitball at the chalkboard. I can't take it anymore. So for that reason, I'll just go ahead and take the Jets. Thank you for hearing me out. And let's go … Zach Wilson? Man, this feels dirty. But this is my process.

The pick: Jets (+7)

It's getting to the point where this feels like a desperate win for the Bills. Losing to the Broncos as massive favorites dealt a major blow to the Bills' playoff chances, dropping them down to 28.9 percent, per the model. Buffalo lost to the Zach Wilson-led Jets in Week 1 when Aaron Rodgers was hurt on the opening drive, but now the game heads to the state of New York, where the Bills open as 8-point home favorites per the model and 7-point favorites.

Win probability: 75.5%, Bills

The Jets struggled offensively vs. the Chargers and Raiders but will get up for this critical division game as it means everything for their season, given they beat Buffalo in Week 1. The Jets are weakest against the run, but the Bills will be focused most on passing with Josh Allen. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, per usual, lead the Jets' offense to stay competitive.

Pick: Bills win 22-17 but fail to cover the spread.

The Aaron Rodgers return moves another step toward becoming moot.

Florio: Bills, 21-13.

Simms: Bills, 20-10.

Why Dan is taking the Bills: Under different circumstances, I would worry about Buffalo looking ahead to its meat-grinder of an upcoming schedule, with road games against the Eagles and Chiefs sandwiching a Week 13 bye. But the Bills, of all teams, should know better than to take this opponent lightly, especially given Buffalo's own current struggles. Josh Allen has a 79.0 passer rating in his career versus Gang Green (lowest against any opponent, min. three starts) and has lost two of his last three against New York, including the Week 1 heartbreaker. I don't expect it to be pretty, but if Sean McDermott's defense doesn't rise to the occasion against Zach Wilson, I think we can say goodbye to the Bills' reign in the AFC East.

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