The Bills are 10.0 point favorites this week according to Caesars Sportsbook as the team prepares to host the New York Jets at Highmark Stadium.
Here's a list of game predictions from NFL analysts.
MDS's take: This will be a closer game than the point spread suggests, but the Bills will prove to have too much for the Jets.
MDS's pick: Bills 30, Jets 27.
Florio's take: Last year, Mike White's third start resulted in a four-pick, 45-17 meltdown against the Bills. It won't be that bad this time, but the Bills are reinvigorated — and rejuvenated after Kansas City's loss gave Buffalo the inside track to the top seed.
Florio's pick: Bills 31, Jets 20.
Look for this to be a defensive-minded game, with both offensive lines' weakness in pass protection short-circuiting drives. Josh Allen is better equipped to overcome quick pressure. Mike White is the X-factor. He is not the point guard he was advertised to be. White is closer to a taller Ryan Fitzpatrick with a bigger arm, unafraid to swing for the fences.
Prediction: Bills 21, Jets 17
I'm still trying to figure out how the Jets lost that game to the Vikings last week. They outgained Minnesota by 199 yards. Kirk Cousins averaged 4.9 yards per attempt. And Justin Jefferson's longest catch was 10 yards. But an offense that goes 1-for-6 in the red zone and -2 in turnovers will get you every time, I guess. On Extra Point Taken this week, Ben Solak and I both explained why we still believe in the Jets and think they'll make the playoffs.
As for the Bills, they were the big winners of Week 13. Buffalo went from the 5 seed to the first seed in the AFC with a win over the Patriots and a loss by the Dolphins. This week, the Bills got rough news that Von Miller is done for the season, but this is still a very good team. It feels like the Bills have had ups and downs, yet their +124 point differential is tops in the AFC.
The Jets held the Bills to 17 points in a win earlier this season. I'd be surprised if that happened again, but I think their defense keeps this one competitive.
The pick: Jets (+9.5)
What to watch for: The Jets' defense played a huge role in the team's win over the Bills earlier this season by giving quarterback Josh Allen a tough task with their zone defense. Allen went 11-of-23 on plays against zone coverage with two interceptions and no touchdowns for a 2.8 QBR on those plays. The ability of the Jets' defense to give Allen a hard time again will be a crucial factor. Jets QB Mike White will also be looking for a better performance in this matchup. In his most recent start against the Bills in Week 10 of 2021, he threw zero touchdown passes and four interceptions. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Bold prediction: The Jets, one of 10 teams that haven't scored a defensive touchdown, will end the streak on a pick-six by cornerback Sauce Gardner. The rookie gets his hands on a lot of footballs (15 passes defended) but hasn't had an interception since Week 9 against the Bills, one of 11 thrown by Allen this season. Look for Gardner, known for his sticky coverage, to pick Allen again. -- Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Bills are seeking their fourth straight 10-win season, which would match the longest streak in franchise history (1990-93, the years when they made four consecutive Super Bowls).
What's at stake: The Bills -- near locks to make the playoffs -- have an 85% chance to win the AFC East (per ESPN's FPI). They also carry a 46% chance to be the AFC's top seed, which jumps to 50% with a win or 19% with a loss. The Jets hold a 36% chance to make the playoffs, though a win skyrockets that to 63%.
Betting nugget: Each of New York's past four games against AFC teams have gone under the total.
Moody's pick: Bills 29, Jets 24
Walder's pick: Jets 24, Bills 20
The Jets are playing consecutive road games, while the Bills are rested after playing last Thursday. Bad combination. The Bills also look like they are getting it rolling again on offense. The Jets defense is good, but didn't look as good last week. Buffalo wins it behind Josh Allen as Jets quarterback Mike White can't keep up.
Pick: Bills 29, Jets 13
The Jets had multiple opportunities to win against Minnesota last week and couldn't close out. They settled for five field goals on Sunday, and they have scored touchdowns on just four of 14 trips to the red zone in their past four games. The Jets visit the Bills as 9.5-point underdogs, only the third time they've been given more than 7 points on the spread this season. The team won both previous instances — against the Packers and the Bills — straight up.
Covering a big spread is easier when opponents don't score very many points, and the Jets' defense holds opponents to 18.6 points per game (sixth lowest in the league). The Bills, however, average a league-high 34 points per game at home, and their red-zone defense is the third best in the league. They will look to avenge their Week 9 loss to the Jets, if for no other reason than to help hold onto the top seed and home-field advantage for the playoffs.
Pick: Bills -9.5
Buffalo has not played a home game since the 33-30 loss to the Vikings on Nov. 13, and they will be looking to avenge the 20-17 loss to the Jets in the teams' first meeting. Mike White has put up back-to-back 300-yard games for New York, but it's going to be tough to keep up with Josh Allen in this one. The Bills maintain their lead for home-field advantage in the AFC, which matters when you see who is left on the schedule.
Pick: Bills 30, Jets 23