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Game predictions | Bills vs. Packers | Sunday Night Football

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers, Preseason Week 3, August 28, 2021 at Highmark Stadium. Siran Neal (33) Photo by Craig Melvin
Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers, Preseason Week 3, August 28, 2021 at Highmark Stadium. Siran Neal (33) Photo by Craig Melvin

The Bills are 11.5 point favorites this week according to Caesars Sportsbook as the team prepares to host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football.

Here's a list of game predictions from NFL analysts.

Aaron Rodgers' statement that this matchup may be exactly what the Packers need rings hollow. If a two-game losing streak wasn't inspiration to magically try harder, why would taking a three-game losing streak into a game against a tougher opponent do the trick? It's not about the adversaries. It's about Green Bay's faulty coaching on defense and personnel on offense. This should be another reality check for Rodgers that a "tick" better won't be enough.

Prediction: Bills 34, Packers 20

MDS's take: Aaron Rodgers is a double-digit underdog for the first time, and with good reason: The Bills are far better than the Packers in all phases of the game.

MDS's pick: Bills 31, Packers 17.

Florio's take: The Green Bay spirit will be willing, but the Bills are just too strong.

Florio's pick: Bills 42, Packers 10.

According to TruMedia's database, this is the first time in Aaron Rodgers's career that the Packers have been an underdog of 10 points or more. Offensively, I see a quarterback who doesn't trust his pass catchers. Defensively, I see a group that is not playing up to its talent.

Then we have the Bills. Their plus-95 point differential is not only tops in the NFL, but it's 39 points better than any other team.

Would it surprise me if Rodgers looked like the two-time reigning MVP, the Packers thrived in the "nobody believes in us" role, and they made this a competitive game? No. But I'm in "prove it" mode with Green Bay. The Bills are talented and well-coached, and they never take their foot off the gas. I'm not fading them here.

The pick: Bills (-10.5)

What to watch for: The Packers and Bills enter this game on two different trajectories. Green Bay is on a three-game losing streak, while Buffalo has been one of the best teams in football and is looking for an eighth straight win following the bye week. To come away with an upset win on the road -- the Packers are 11.0-point underdogs, the largest underdog spread in quarterback Aaron Rodgers' career -- the Packers will have to slow down quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills' offense, especially on third down. The Bills lead the league in third down conversion percentage (52.8%) while the Packers' defense is allowing the third-fewest conversions (30%). -- Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: The Bills have held opponents to 21 or fewer points in 10 straight regular-season games, one shy of matching the longest streak in franchise history (1999-2000).

Betting nugget: Buffalo is 4-1-1 ATS and has the largest average cover margin in the league this season (9.92 PPG). Green Bay is 2-5 ATS and has the worst average cover margin in the league this season (minus-7.9 PPG).

Moody's pick: Bills 42, Packers 14
Walder's pick: Bills 30, Packers 17

This game seemed to be a marquee matchup before the season, but the Packers are 3-4 and struggling. The Bills are coming off a bye and have looked great on offense this season. I don't think the Packers have any chance to keep up. Josh Allen gets the best of Aaron Rodgers. 

Pick: Bills 37, Packers 20

Buffalo, now the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, has a way of turning even venerated quarterbacks into underdogs. Before their Week 6 drubbing of Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes had never been a home underdog in his career. This week, it's the first time in Aaron Rodgers's 18-year career that he has entered a game as a double-digit underdog.

That owes as much to the Packers' recent struggles as much as to the Bills' prowess. Green Bay's three-game slide hit a new low against Washington last week, with the Packers managing just 232 yards of total offense and going 0 for 6 on third downs. The Bills had a Week 7 bye yet the market still moved this number from 8 to as high as 11.5 early this week based solely on the Packers' performance against the Commanders. If the number keeps climbing, bettors will likely buy back on the Packers at 13, and at that number we'd pick Green Bay as well. Until then, we're sticking with the Bills. 

Pick: Bills -10.5

The Packers have never been this big an underdog when quarterbacked by Aaron Rodgers in his prime. They are in an offensive funk because they aren't running the ball enough and keep trusting too much in a limited wide receiver corps. The Bills' defense coming off a bye can pressure Rodgers and continue to frustrate his key targets. Green Bay will show a little fight tied to desperation on the road, but its offense and defense isn't positioned well in this road matchup.

Pick: Bills win 30-17 and cover the spread.


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