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Game predictions | Bills vs. Patriots | Thursday Night Football

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots, December 26, 2021 at Gillette Stadium. Photo by David Le
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots, December 26, 2021 at Gillette Stadium. Photo by David Le

The Bills are 3.5 point favorites this week according to Caesars Sportsbook as the team prepares to face the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium.

Here's a list of game predictions from NFL analysts.

The Bills had extra time off after the Thanksgiving thriller with the Lions. Buffalo is 5-5-1 ATS. The Patriots can stop the run – but Josh Allen presents a different challenge with his mobility. New England also has averaged just 71.3 rushing yards per game in its last three games. That will not work against the Bills. Buffalo wins for the third straight year at Gillette Stadium.  

Pick: Bills 27, Patriots 17

The Bills knocked the Pats out of the playoffs last year, so you know the Pats want to get back at them for that. Both teams played on Thanksgiving, so they are rested. But Josh Allen has played really well against the Pats in recent years, going 4-1 in the last five. That stays true. Bills win it. 

Pick: Bills 28, Patriots 21

Josh Allen has more passing yards than anyone in the N.F.L. not named Patrick Mahomes, leads the league in yards per rush attempt and is the Bills' leading rusher. Buffalo tends to rise or fall based on Allen's heroic efforts or tragic turnovers, and his load becomes even heavier because the team this week added three more defensive players to the injured list, where they join the star linebacker Von Miller. Center Mitch Morse is also hurt but questionable for Thursday night. Left tackle Dion Dawkins has been ruled out.

The Patriots enter the matchup one game out of playoff contention and have a defense (allows the fourth fewest yards, ranked second in sacks) that could get them there. Against a Bills offensive line that's got issues, the Patriots could eat. A win would increase their postseason odds from 43 percent to 61 percent, according to the Times’s playoff simulator

Pick: Patriots +4.5

Buffalo has been somewhat of an unreliable play, but recent history shows this team has more or less figured out New England. The Bills have beaten the Pats in four of the last five, with the average margin of victory in those Buffalo victories being 18.5 points.

Prediction: Bills 27, Pats 20 (Lorenzo Reyes)

The Bills struggled in recent weeks and face a Patriots team that has routinely given them fits in New England. It'll be close, but Josh Allen will do what Josh Allen does to pull out a Buffalo win.

Prediction: Bills 27, Pats 20 (Safid Deen)

Nothing would please the Bills Mafia more than to send the Patriots further out of the playoff picture while restoring their own luster following the narrow Thanksgiving escape in Detroit. 

Prediction: Bills 24, Pats 17 (Lance Pugmire)


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