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Game Predictions | Bills vs. Vikings | Week 10

Buffalo Bills defensive back Siran Neal (33) Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings at New Era Field, August 29, 2019.Photo by Craig Melvin/Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills defensive back Siran Neal (33) Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings at New Era Field, August 29, 2019.Photo by Craig Melvin/Buffalo Bills

The Bills are 3.5 point favorites this week according to Caesars Sportsbook as the team prepares to host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday in Highmark Stadium.

Here's a list of game predictions from NFL analysts.

I made this prediction assuming Josh Allen is out with his elbow injury. Buffalo could be without multiple key players on Sunday. Von Miller's running mate, Greg Rousseau, is dealing with an ankle injury and the statuses of several defenders are up in the air. Yet I still believe the Bills can win in a bounce-back game. Case Keenum can get rid of the ball fast and take the quick profits that Minnesota's defense gives up. Miller and the rest of Buffalo's defensive players will be up for the challenge of proving they can win a game on their own.

Prediction: Bills 20, Vikings 17

MDS's take: The status of Josh Allen's elbow may make me regret this pick, but as of right now I don't see the Vikings playing a competitive game against a Bills team that will be eager to rebound from last week's loss.

MDS's pick: Bills 31, Vikings 17.

Florio's take: This pick is based on an educated guess that Josh Allen won't play, and on a belief that the Minnesota offense is finding its groove, thanks to the T.J. Hockenson trade.

Florio's pick: Vikings 24, Bills 20.

All eyes in Buffalo are on Josh Allen. He's officially day-to-day with an elbow injury, but the low number here indicates a belief out of Vegas that Allen is in danger of missing this game. If that happens, the Bills would turn to Case Keenum. Buffalo had a number of other starters listed on Wednesday's injury report.

The advanced numbers are not kind to the Vikings. They are 7-1 but rank 18th in DVOA. Minnesota is now 4-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer.

This is a tough call. On one hand, the Bills are so banged up and could be without Allen. On the other, Keenum would still have a lot of talent around him. And are the Vikings really going to go 8-1? I have no feel on this game. When in doubt, take the points.

The pick: Vikings (+3.5)

Prince: Vikings

If I'm Buffalo, I'm allowing Josh Allen to rest his injured elbow for a week. That means Minnesota wins.

Charles: Vikings

I'm with Prince. Grab Minnesota and assume that Allen rests.

Blake: Bills

Uh are y'all forgetting who Buffalo's backup is if Allen doesn't play? His name is Case Keenum. He used to play for the Vikings. So did Bills star wideout Stefon Diggs. They previously teamed up to do this. Get ready for the most Minnesota-loss ever if Allen rests.

Caroline: Bills

Ok, last week was a rough one for us Bills fans, but they get right this week. Right?!

What to watch for: The Bills have won seven straight home games dating back to last season, all by double digits, but that streak will be on the line in a big way with the Vikings coming to town as winners of six straight one-score games. While the Bills will be hoping to bounce back after a tough loss to the Jets, they might be without Josh Allen (right elbow), who has not missed a game since 2018 and accounts for a league-high 82% of the Bills' yardage and 92% of their touchdowns. Backup Case Keenum has experience with Stefon Diggs from 2017 in Minnesota, including the "Minneapolis Miracle." -- Alaina Getzenberg

Bold prediction:Justin Jefferson and Diggs will combine for more than 300 receiving yards. Diggs, who has two 100-yard performances in his past three games, will be fired up to play against his original team. Jefferson is on a big roll, having racked up four 100-yard games in his past five. (He reached 98 yards the other time.) Be ready for a big display of receiving firepower. -- Kevin Seifert

Betting nugget: Buffalo lost last week as a 10.5-point favorite against the Jets. Teams coming off a loss as a double-digit favorite are 46-28-2 against the spread (ATS) in the following game over the past 20 seasons.

Moody's pick: Bills 34, Vikings 24

Walder's pick: Vikings 24, Bills 17

This is the big game of the week. That could be trouble for Kirk Cousins, who hasn't played well in them. The Bills haven't looked great on offense in the last game and half, but that will change here if Josh Allen can play. Look for the Bills to get back on track. They win it big. 

Pick: Bills 30, Vikings 20

The Bills hope to avenge a loss to the Jets by defeating a quality opponent at home. The Vikings hope to prove their doubters wrong and cement their place in the Super Bowl conversation. For the Bills, injuries on defense continue to mount: They're missing linebacker Matt Milano, safety Jordan Poyer, defensive end Greg Rousseau and cornerback Tre'Davious White.

Meanwhile, Minnesota's defense is improving. Linebacker Za'Darius Smith is tied for the league lead in tackles for loss, and he has 8.5 sacks. Tight end T.J. Hockenson made a huge difference in his first game with the Vikings last week after arriving from Detroit through a trade. He caught all nine of his targets for a total of 70 yards in Minnesota's win against the Commanders. Josh Allen is day to day, and the point spread of 3.5 assumes he won't play. We think the Bills are capable of covering this number with Case Keenum, but it's close. 

Pick: Bills -3.5

The Bills were mortal in a loss to the Jets in Week 9, and that should mean a refocused Josh Allen at home against the Vikings, who rank 27th in the league in passing defense (256.9). This is Stefon Diggs' first game against his former team, and he'll put on a show in front of the home crowd. Buffalo bounces back in style.

Pick: Bills 31, Vikings 21


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