The Buffalo Bills are 6.5-point favorites this Sunday when they host the San Francisco 49ers at Highmark Stadium at 8:20 pm. The game will air on NBC's Sunday Night Football broadcast. With a win, the Bills will clinch their fifth consecutive AFC East title.
Here's a list of additional notes for Sunday's game:
- Bills are 9-0 coming off the bye since 2015
- Bills have won six consecutive games
- Bills are 5-0 at home in 2024
- Josh Allen is 6-2 on Sunday Night Football (4-0 at home)
- Josh Allen has won 10 consecutive December/January games since 2022
- 49ers are 5-6 for the first time since 2020
- 49ers have one win over a team with a winning record in 2024 (Seattle)
Let's keep this simple. Sunday night is a game between the MVP-betting favorite quarterback Josh Allen, who is coming off extra rest and having the healthiest offense he's had all year.
They'll face a cross-country traveling San Francisco 49ers team that might still be without its starting quarterback, is decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball, and might realize it doesn't have the personnel to get to the playoffs this year.
Now add possible severe weather, which includes freezing temperatures, possible snow, and winds exceeding 20 mph. This is a bad game for the visiting offense
This spread is very vulnerable at -7 for the home side, who is 5-0 SU at home (3-2 ATS) and has scored 30+ points in each game. The Brock Purdy news will sway this number to either side of this flat spread, but I'll gladly take the Bills off the bye, getting healthy, and with this projected weather as a touchdown fave at close to even money.
This is not anywhere near the San Francisco team that bettors are used to as even Christian McCaffrey seems to be a shell of his 2023-24 self. It's the Bills all day Sunday night.
Score prediction: Bills 27, 49ers 14
Why Ali picked the Bills: With their season on the brink, a less-than-whole 49ers team must face one of the stiffest tests the league has to offer this year: the Bills at Highmark Stadium. Buffalo has outclassed each of its five visitors thus far, scoring at least 30 points (they hung 47 on the Jags in Week 3) and forcing at least one turnover in each game (with a +5 margin total). Not even the reigning champs were able to escape upstate New York unscathed. That this matchup is in prime time and following a Bills bye week just seems wholly unfair to San Francisco; Josh Allen boasts the second-best prime-time win percentage (.720, 18-7) among qualifying QBs since 2018 and sports a flawless 6-0 career record in post-bye contests.
Hard to know at this stage who San Francisco expects to suit up Sunday night. But even at full strength, the 2024 Niners haven't performed like the world-beaters we've come to expect from a Kyle Shanahan-led squad. Although I don't think they'll get "embarrassed" like they did last week, the Niners ultimately come up short for the seventh time this season.
The 49ers seem to be physically, mentally, and emotionally spent.
Florio: Bills, 34-20.
Simms: Bills, 28-20.
49ers storyline to watch: The 49ers haven't lost three games in a row all season, but they enter this one in peril of doing just that and essentially putting any postseason hopes to rest. The Bills can clinch the AFC East with a win, and they've won all five home games this season while scoring 30-plus points in each contest. San Francisco is still banged up and will be traveling across the country after another lengthy flight to Green Bay last week, making this perhaps its most difficult challenge. -- Nick Wagoner
Bills storyline to watch: Bills quarterback Josh Allen -- a Firebaugh, California, native -- will play the team he grew up cheering for. He will have a chance to continue to improve his candidacy for MVP in prime time against a 49ers defense that has forced only one turnover in the past three games and is tied for 20th in points allowed per game (23.6). -- Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The 49ers had 18 penalties in their past two games (both losses), which is tied for their most penalties in a two-game span over the past five seasons.
Bold prediction: The Bills will hold running back Christian McCaffrey to fewer than four receptions. No team allows a lower percentage of targets (25%) to opposing running backs than the Bills. -- Walder
Fantasy X factor: Bills running back James Cook. Buffalo should rely heavily on its offensive line and running game due to potentially snowy weather, which bodes well for Cook. He scored 15 or more fantasy points in three of their past four games and had 15 or more touches in three of those matchups. See Week 13 rankings. -- Moody
Betting nugget: This is the second straight game the 49ers have been underdogs after being favored in 36 straight regular-season games.
Kahler's pick: Bills 34, 49ers 21
Moody's pick: Bills 30, 49ers 23
Walder's pick: Bills 27, 49ers 26
FPI prediction: BUF, 61.3% (by an average of 4.1 points)
The Bills are coming off their bye, while the 49ers are playing a second straight road game. The health of 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is the key here. If he plays, they might stay in this game. If he doesn't, it's ugly. Either way, the Bills will win it as Josh Allen pushes for his MVP.
Pick: Bills 30, 49ers 20
The 49ers are repeating the 2020 season after another loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Injuries have become a major issue, with no area of the team — offense, defense, or special teams — immune to key players going down at tough times. The Bills will have little empathy as they are trying to chase down the Chiefs themselves. Coming off a bye, Josh Allen can keep smashing as the Bills' defense takes care of the rest vs. a shorthanded, road-weary offense that will have little work beyond Christian McCaffrey in the passing game.
Pick: Bills win 30-14 and cover the spread.
The 49ers are in a tough spot here. Brock Purdy (shoulder) is expected back, but that is not a certainty. Buffalo is coming off a bye week, and the Bills are 5-0 S/U at home this season. Josh Allen has 12 TDs, two interceptions, and a 112.1 passer rating in those games. The 49ers have lost by more than seven points one time this season when Purdy was playing. This is an all-in moment, which makes it a close call on Sunday Night Football.
Pick: Bills 28, 49ers 24
The Buffalo Bills are -6.5 favorites against the San Francisco 49ers, which is a good indicator that Brock Purdy likely won't play in Week 13 or will be severely limited. The same can be said for Nick Bosa, who missed last week with a hip injury.
Buffalo is rested and should be ready for this bad-weather game. And with the No. 1 seed still on the line for the Bills, look for them to lean on Josh Allen's legs and win a big game in prime time. Take the Bills -6.5 and expect them to cover the spread in Buffalo.
Score Prediction: Bills 27, 49ers 20
... O'Donnell isn't going to take a risk with Purdy's banged-up shoulder. He sided with the Bills to win their third consecutive game by at least seven points.
"Last week, I rolled the dice on San Francisco expecting (hoping?) Brock Purdy to be on the field and got burned," O'Donnell said. "Two MRIs and a sassy Kyle Shanahan response to inquiries on Purdy's status later and making this pick on a Wednesday—no, I won't be burned again.
"Fortunately, and as highly as I typically think of San Francisco, I don't have to wring my hands too long with the Bills on the other sideline. Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in five straight games—all wins (and 4-1 ATS)—and while some may sense a letdown coming after beating the Chiefs, the Bills have two tough road games on the other side of this two-game homestand. They cannot afford to slack here.
"Josh Allen could very well run away with this game, but a late turnover preventing the Niners from closing to within one score sounds like a solid backup plan, too."
Predictions
Davenport: Bills
Gagnon: Bills
Hanford: Bills
Knox: 49ers
Michelino: Bills
Moton: Bills
O'Donnell: Bills
Sobleski: Bills
ATS Consensus: Bills -6.5
Score Prediction: Bills 27, 49ers 19
