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NFL analysts | Bills at Chiefs game predictions | Week 5

Taiwan Jones (25) fumble recovery Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs, AFC Championship Game, January 24, 2021 at Arrowhead Stadium. Photo by Bill Wippert
Taiwan Jones (25) fumble recovery Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs, AFC Championship Game, January 24, 2021 at Arrowhead Stadium. Photo by Bill Wippert

MDS's take: Sunday Night Football gets the best game of the week, with the Bills, who have been absolutely dominant against subpar quarterbacks the last three weeks, finding that it's not so easy to dominate against Patrick Mahomes.

MDS's pick: Chiefs 27, Bills 20.

Florio's take: The Bills are currently the best team in the NFL, but they're getting the Chiefs at a very bad time in a very bad place. They'll cover, but the find-a-way Chiefs find a way to win.

Florio's pick: Chiefs 31, Bills 30.

This is an enormous game for playoff seeding down the line. The Chiefs have already lost twice, once at home, so they can't afford another loss here. The Bills lost to the Chiefs twice last season, but have addressed their biggest issue in those losses, which is pass rush. I think they've done enough there to slow Patrick Mahomes some and Josh Allen and the Bills will go into Arrowhead and pull off a big upset.

Pick: Bills 30, Chiefs 28

The Bills were one of the first teams to slow down the Chiefs offense' last regular season, albeit unsuccessfully. Kansas City now embraces long drives if defenses are determined to give up short throws, and the team's young offensive line is getting better by the week. The Ravens finally slayed their Chiefs demons earlier this season on Sunday night, and the Bills have unquestionably looked like a more complete team this year. But when push comes to shove, I believe Josh Allen is the quarterback more likely to make a game-changing turnover in a game where possessions are so valuable. Buffalo's QB ranks third-worst in football when it comes to turnover-worthy plays, according to Pro Football Focus, ahead of just Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence.

Pick: Chiefs 31-24

The Buffalo Bills went 0-2 straight-up and ATS in two meetings with the Kansas City Chiefs last year, and the Chiefs rebounded from their rough start with a decisive victory over the Eagles last week.

However, the majority of the panel is backing red-hot Buffalo with only 2.5 points in their back pocket Sunday at Arrowhead. 

"The Bills' Week 1 throttling at the hands of the Steelers seems like a cosmic joke in retrospect," Sobleski said. "Since then, Buffalo has dismantled its opposition while averaging 39.3 points per game. Playing the Chiefs is different than playing Miami, Washington and Houston. But the Bills getting points when the Chiefs have the league's second-worst defense feels like a slap into the face to Josh Allen and his crew." ...


Davenport: Buffalo
Gagnon: Kansas City
Kenyon: Kansas City
O'Donnell: Buffalo
Rogers: Buffalo
Sobleski: Buffalo

Score Prediction: Bills 28, Chiefs 27

Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen hysteria will fill the game's broadcast, but in this rematch of last year's A.F.C. championship, pay attention to the Bills' defense. The unit is No. 1 in yards allowed per game (216.8), takeaways (11) and has shut out two opponents. In prime time, the Bills (3-1) can display that effectiveness, especially if they limit Kansas City receiver Tyreek Hill. The Chargers and the Ravens each limited Hill to less than 100 yards, a major factor in both of Kansas City's losses. After losing to Kansas City (2-2) twice last season, Buffalo may now have a blueprint for securing an upset.

Pick: Bills +2.5


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