Buffalo Bills (+6.5) at Dallas Cowboys
This is a big game for both teams, a proving game of sorts. The Cowboys have not beaten a team with a winning record, while the Bills have beaten just one. The Cowboys were awful on offense last week, but they have a big edge here being at home. Even so, I think the Bills show up big on defense and the Cowboys have to be wondering about their coach.
Pick: Bills 20, Cowboys 19
What to watch for: Dallas receiver Amari Cooper has just 17 receptions for 213 yards in six road games, but he has 39 receptions for 673 yards and five touchdowns in five home games, including more than 100 yards receiving in his last three home contests. Yet Buffalo is allowing just 184.3 passing yards per game and has allowed just one 100-yard receiver in a game this season. -- Todd Archer
Bold prediction: Buffalo's Tre'Davious White holds Cooper to fewer than 40 yards as he continues his campaign as one of the NFL's elite cornerbacks. In all, the Bills hold the Cowboys under 300 yards but can't muster up enough offense of their own to get the win. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: The Cowboys have lost four straight Thanksgiving games against teams that entered with a win percentage as good as the Bills' current mark of .727. In fact, the last time they won a Turkey Day game against such a team was in 1999, when they won 20-0 against the 8-2 Dolphins.
Louis-Jacques' pick: Cowboys 17, Bills 10
Archer's pick: Cowboys 31, Bills 20
The Buffalo Bills have played one of the softest schedules in the NFL, but they're 2-0 ATS this season against teams with winning records. If they can beat the Tennessee Titans on the road and hang with the New England Patriots, the majority of our panelists figure they can get within six points of a Dallas Cowboys squad that has lost all four of its games against winning teams.
"So much attention has been placed on the Patriots and 49ers defenses that most probably don't realize the Bills own the NFL's third-ranked unit," Sobleski said. "This is significant because the Cowboys have struggled to put together complete offensive efforts, especially when they face disciplined and talented units. As long as the Bills can keep Amari Cooper or Ezekiel Elliott in check, which they absolutely can, Josh Allen and Co. can keep this contest close or come out with an outright win."
Davenport: Dallas (-6.5)
Gagnon: Buffalo (+6.5)
Sobleski: Buffalo (+6.5)
Consensus: Buffalo (+6.5)
Score Prediction: Cowboys 24, Bills 21