The Buffalo Bills are 1.5-point underdogs for Sunday night's season opener against the Baltimore Ravens at Highmark Stadium.
The game kicks off at 8:20 pm on NBC.
Here are additional notes for Week 1
- Bills have won 11 consecutive home regular season games
- Sean McDermott is 6-2 in home openers
- Josh Allen is 25-3 in his last 28 home games
- Buffalo is 13-4 in primetime games since 2022 - the best record in the NFL
- Baltimore has won 7 of 9 Week 1 games including its last three games
- Baltimore leads the all-time regular season series against Buffalo 7-4
- Baltimore is 11-0 when Derrick Henry rushes for 85+ yards
- Henry is 0-3 (including playoffs) vs. Buffalo in Orchard Park
- Sean McDermott is 12-4 in September since 2020 per Action Network
This is the premier game of the week, featuring two of the Super Bowl favorites. The Bills beat the Ravens in the playoffs last year, so Lamar Jackson and gang are looking for payback. I don't think they get it. Being on the road on a Sunday night for your opener is a tough thing to overcome, but it's really tough because of the opponent. Josh Allen and the Bills will win a close one.
Pick: Bills 34, Ravens 31
Ravens vs Bills moneyline prediction
I don't buy into the revenge angle for the Ravens or Lamar Jackson. What I do believe is that Baltimore is the best two-way team in football, and the Bills still have work to do in Week 1. I could see the Ravens winning this one with a score of 30-24.
Ravens vs Bills betting trend to know
The Ravens are now road chalk in Orchard Park and have gone 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS as road favorites in the regular season the past three seasons. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Bills.
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson take center stage in the Sunday Night Football spotlight. Including playoffs, the two teams are tied at 3-3 in those head-to-head matchups. Will Jackson get revenge for last year's AFC divisional playoff loss? The Bills were 10-0 S/U and 7-3 ATS at home last season. Will that trend continue? Stick with the home team in a toss-up game that could come down to a last-second field goal by Tyler Bass.
Pick: Bills 31, Ravens 28
Lamar Jackson in regular-season prime-time games is virtually unstoppable.
Florio's pick: Ravens 30, Bills 27.
Simms's pick: Ravens 30, Bills 21.
Why Brooke picked the Ravens: The schedule-makers graciously gifted us this honey of a game in Week 1. The top two MVP candidates from last season are the obvious headliners, as Josh Allen (85) and Lamar Jackson (74) rank first and second in offensive TDs over the last two seasons. It's not all about them, though. These offenses are littered with talented playmakers, including Pro Bowlers Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers and James Cook, as well as ascending slot machine Khalil Shakir. Not to mention, both lines are extremely stout. So which defense is better equipped to stall those elite units? Buffalo is solid (keep an eye on CB Tre'Davious White's injury status), but the answer is Baltimore. Zach Orr's defense was one of the best in the league down the stretch last season and has historically had Allen's number in the regular season. The reigning MVP's 67.7 career regular-season passer rating against the Ravens is his worst among the 14 opponents he has face at least three times, per NFL Research. Matchups between league goliaths come down to the details, and Baltimore owns that slight edge despite what happened in January. This isn't about the Ravens getting revenge for that playoff loss -- it's about them boasting perhaps the best roster in the NFL.
The AFC Runners-Up Invitational: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)
I saved the best game of the Week 1 slate for last. The Bills and Ravens played in the divisional round in January and the line was basically a pick'em. So what's changed since then? Not much.
Buffalo retooled its defense to try to improve its down-to-down consistency after the Bills became too reliant on generating turnovers. If you remove the plays in which they forced turnovers last year, the Bills were 28th in EPA allowed. It was an opportunistic defense, but that's hard to sustain year over year and is not a formula for beating elite teams. Sean McDermott gives the defense a high floor and the Bills are an above-average defense by DVOA almost every season, but his defenses haven't been able to stay healthy enough to truly match up against elite offenses.
The Ravens will have Zay Flowers and backup scatback Keaton Mitchell healthy after both missed the playoff game. Baltimore outplayed Buffalo on a play-to-play basis both times these teams met last season. The difference between the Ravens' win in the regular season and the playoff loss was costly turnovers (stop me if you've heard that before) and miscues. I bet Buffalo in January and felt a little lucky to get that one across the line. This time, I think Baltimore gets revenge for the playoffs.
Verdict: Bet Ravens +1.5
What we're hearing on the Ravens: When QB Lamar Jackson was asked about the biggest key to beating the Bills, he quickly said: "Don't turn the ball over." The Ravens have talked all offseason about their three turnovers -- the "self-inflicted" mistakes -- that led to a 27-25 divisional round loss to Buffalo last season. Since 2022, the Ravens are 1-6 when Jackson turns the ball over multiple times, including that postseason loss in Buffalo. -- Jamison Hensley
What we're hearing on the Bills: A banged-up Bills secondary is about to face quite the challenge to start the season in Jackson, with both starting CBs Christian Benford and Tre'Davious White dealing with groin injuries. White did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, while Benford is moving in a positive direction, fully participating in Thursday's practice. White's availability is a serious question mark, and if he can't go, the role will go to Ja'Marcus Ingram -- who has played a backup role for the Bills before -- or sixth-round pick rookie Dorian Strong. Defensive coordinator Bobby Babich said that Strong's "improvement over the past two weeks has been unbelievable." -- Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: This is the first time the top two players in MVP voting from the prior season meet in a season opener (since at least 1970), and the fifth time the MVP winners from the prior two seasons face each other in a season opener (also since 1970). -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Ravens TE Mark Andrews catches a touchdown pass. Given how much lower the stakes are, it won't quite erase his dropped 2-point conversion in the divisional round against Buffalo -- but it's something. With Isaiah Likely's status in question due to the fractured foot, Andrews should be in line for plenty of snaps, too. -- Walder
Fantasy nugget: Khalil Shakir had a career season in 2024, leading the Bills in targets, receptions and receiving yards. He also ranked inside the top eight in yards from the slot, which is notable since the Ravens' secondary allowed the sixth-most yards and ninth-most to slot receivers. Shakir should continue to serve as a safety valve for Allen. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody
Betting nugget: Jackson has the best win percentage and cover percentage as an underdog in the Super Bowl era. Read more. -- ESPN Research
Maldonado's pick: Bills 27, Ravens 24
Moody's pick: Ravens 23, Bills 20
Walder's pick: Ravens 31, Bills 27
FPI prediction: BUF, 51.1% (by an average of 0 points)
