The Bills return from London after a bad showing against Jacksonville. The Giants are playing consecutive road games, and they are a mess right now. Look for Buffalo to lay a big one on them here as it gets back on track in impressive fashion. Josh Allen lights it up.
Pick: Bills 37, Giants 14
How bad is this Giants team? They have a minus-91 point differential through five weeks. That's not only the worst mark in the NFL, but it's also the second-worst mark for the franchise since 2000. Only the 2013 team (at minus-100) was worse.
... Going into this season, the Bills were an attractive Super Bowl pick because they seemed well-rounded—a team that could finish in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. But that defense will likely have a tough go the rest of the way. There are only so many good players you can lose and still be effective.
As for this game, I think Bills quarterback Josh Allen goes into superhero mode, accounts for 400 yards of offense, and leads the Bills to a bounce-back win.
The pick: Bills (-14)
Storyline to watch: This game represents a big bounce-back opportunity for the Bills' offense after a subpar performance against the Jaguars -- especially for the ground game. The Giants have given up 5.3 yards per rush (29th) and 6.3 yards per play (31) this season. A Bills offense that scored 37-plus points in a three-game stretch before Week 5 will be a challenge for this Giants defense. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills have used nickel defense on 95.8% of their plays this season, the highest rate in the NFL. They have dominated opponents using five-plus defensive backs, ranking first in both touchdown-to-interception ratio and sack rate. The Giants, who struggle against defenses with five-plus defensive backs, rank last in those metrics.
Matchup X factor: Bills edge rusher Von Miller. He played just 23% of the snaps last week, but that presumably will be increasing against the Giants. And the Bills need the help, too, with DaQuan Jones now injured. -- Walder
What to know for fantasy: New York's defense has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs so far this season. Don't be afraid to start James Cook. -- Moody
Betting nugget: The Giants are 0-5 ATS this season, the worst in the NFL. Last season, the Giants were 13-4 ATS, the best mark in the NFL.
Moody's pick: Bills 38, Giants 17
Walder's pick: Bills 30, Giants 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 89.3% (by an average of 17 points)
... "I'm actually a bit more wary of this monster spread if Tyrod Taylor gets the start against his former team than if Daniel Jones starts for the Giants. It's less predictable and maybe offensive coordinator Mike Kafka has a play-calling sheet that makes sense. But it shouldn't really matter in the end. The Bills will be motivated to circle the wagons after their miserable journey across the pond last weekend. In their three wins this season, they've scored 38, 37 and 48 points but are averaging only 18 points in their two losses.
"The Giants, meanwhile, would have trouble scoring against air right now. Outside of their comeback win over Arizona, New York has scored only 31 points in the other four games, which is just about a touchdown and an extra point per game while surrendering about 30 points per game.
"The Bills are more than two touchdowns better than the Giants even with some key injuries defensively and even if they don't play their best. It's always tricky laying multiple touchdowns-plus in an NFL game, but the Giants haven't shown enough talent, let alone spirit, to warrant backing them even with these points."
ATS Consensus: Bills -14
SU Consensus: Bills
Score Prediction: Bills 35, Giants 17
Scroll to see photos from the Buffalo Bills Week 6 Stadium practice as the team prepares to take on the New York Giants.
The world got a break from the Giants in prime time in Week 5. So what happens? They're back under the lights, this time with Daniel Jones (neck) also hurting along with Saquon Barkley (ankle), Wan'Dale Robinson (concussion) to add to the offensive line woes minus Andrew Thomas. Why give us this needless Brian Daboll revenge game, at Buffalo, no less?
Why, NBC? We would rather watch Paris 2024 promos for three hours. OK, it is fun watching Josh Allen go nuts again in a blowout while the football gods allow Tyrod Taylor to make a surprise start vs. his most notable former team. NBC may not have flexed this game, but Buffalo needs to flex on someone after London.
Pick: Bills win 42-17 and cover the spread.
This looks like it's going to be bad. The New York Giants have a limited roster with a few individual bright spots. No position group can genuinely be considered a strength. On top of that, three of New York's four best players are listed on the injury report, including Daniel Jones.
That's a real problem when playing an elite team like Buffalo.
The Giants' biggest positive is that Buffalo is coming back from London. Teams often play down after that unorthodox trip. Otherwise, from a pure talent perspective, the Buffalo Bills can beat New York in every area.
The Bills' pass rush can dominate, and so can their secondary. Then, you have Josh Allen coming off a loss. Chances are Buffalo finishes this contest with its fourth decisive win of the season.
Score Prediction: Bills 34, Giants 3
Why Tom is taking the Bills: The unknowable nature of the future hangs over all of these blurbs, but sometimes, it's not too tough to make a pick -- like, say, when a team scoring more than 30 points per game takes on a team that averages less than 13. The Bills are certainly capable of a surprise stinker, but they have too much working in their favor for me to try to spin a scenario in which Brian Daboll gets the Giants out of their doldrums against his old employer in Buffalo, potentially withTyrod Taylor as his quarterback.