A whopping 90 percent of public bets for Sunday's matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills have come in on a Buffalo team laying a full 14 points. That's often a red flag, especially because a well-coached, relatively talented Miami team could fight hard to avoid another blowout after losing 35-0 to Buffalo back in Week 2.
Still, a slim majority of the panel is backing Buffalo.
"I really struggled with this one because Miami is unlikely to get smashed yet again," Gagnon said, "especially now that Tua Tagovailoa is finding his game. Still, Buffalo is at home, well-rested following a bye and likely extremely hungry after a tough Week 6 loss to the Tennessee Titans. The Bills are very good at winning handily, and I don't think they'll mess around here. Plus, the Dolphins might simply be out of inspiration after falling to 1-6 with a Week 7 home loss to a mediocre Falcons team."
Score Prediction: Bills 35, Dolphins 17
The Dolphins (1-6) are considered the most likely destination for Deshaun Watson, but so much is wrong with Miami's roster that it is far-fetched to think it could be improved with one addition. The defense has allowed the most yards (2,904) in the league and is tied for 30th in passing touchdowns allowed (15). Coach Brian Flores has repeatedly said he's sticking with Tua Tagovailoa, even against the Bills (4-2), a franchise that has a lot to teach Miami about properly developing a quarterback and surrounding him with dependable help and a strong defense.
Pick: Bills -13.5
The Bills are coming off a bye after a tough loss to the Titans, while the Dolphins are on a six-game losing streak. The Bills beat the Dolphins earlier this season when Tua Tagovailoa was knocked from the game. He's back, but it won't matter. Buffalo will get back on track.
Pick: Bills 33, Dolphins 17
Taking double-digit underdogs this season hasn't worked out yet. It's not a great spot for the Dolphins, coming off yet another loss with the Bills having a week off to think about their loss to the Titans in Week 6. Yet, it's still tough to take favorites giving this many points, no matter the record so far this season. This could be a pick I regret pretty early on Sunday.
Pick: Dolphins (+13.5) over Bills
MDS's take: The Bills' defense is going to destroy Tua Tagovailoa. This could be ugly.
MDS's pick: Bills 27, Dolphins 3.
Florio's take: "Tua Tagovailoa was our quarterback."
Florio's pick: Bills 34, Dolphins 13.