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Game predictions | Bills vs. Jets | Week 9


The Bills are 11.5 point favorites this week according to Caesars Sportsbook as the team prepares to face the New York Jets.

Here's a list of game predictions from NFL analysts.

New York's defense is legit and qualifies as the biggest test for Buffalo's offense thus far. Will the Bills stay patient running the ball? Can they protect long enough to throw downfield? These are real concerns! Then again, this looks like a game where Josh Allen could just ask his defense to win it for him. No quarterback is worse under pressure than Zach Wilson. No team is better at creating pressure without blitzing than Buffalo. Sometimes it's that simple.

Prediction: Bills 23, Jets 8

MDS's take: I see no possibility of Zach Wilson keeping the Jets competitive with Josh Allen.

MDS's pick: Bills 34, Jets 17.

Florio's take: The Bills need to dominate the teams they should be dominating.

Florio's pick: Bills 31, Jets 14.

Improvement in the NFL is not always linear, but it's hard to find specific areas where Zach Wilson is actually getting better. He makes critical mistakes. He often looks panicked. He overrates his ability to create plays out of structure. Even Wilson's biggest supporters have to be concerned. He currently ranks 30th out of 35 quarterbacks in EPA per pass play, and even that ranking got boosted by some garbage time production in last week's loss to the Patriots.

The Bills owe everybody (OK, maybe just me) an apology for not covering the 10.5-point spread last week against the Packers despite being up 24-7 at halftime and generally dominating the game. That one really hurt my feelings.

On the season, the Bills have outscored opponents by a league-best 105 points. They have been favored by 10 points or more 10 times in the past two seasons. They're 6-2-2 against the spread in those games. The matchup between the Bills offensive line and the Jets defensive line gives me some pause, but I like Buffalo.

The pick: Bills (-12.5)

What to watch for: Jets QB Zach Wilson will attempt to rebound from a three-interception nightmare. It won't be easy. It never is against the Bills, who have held the Jets to 17 or fewer points in six straight meetings. The Bills, seeking their first 7-1 start since 1993, are tied for fourth in takeaways (14) -- a problematic matchup for Wilson & Co. -- Rich Cimini

Bold prediction: Josh Allen will throw at least three touchdowns with over 325 passing yards. Allen was frustrated after throwing two second half interceptions in the team's 27-17 win over the Green Bay Packers, and while the Jets defense has nine interceptions on the year and hasn't allowed over 300 passing yards in a game this year, Allen will use those bad decisions to bounce back. Much of the Jets defensive success has come in zone coverage (lowest QBR allowed), but Allen leads the league in QBR (81) and passing touchdowns (six) against zone coverage. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Betting nugget: New York is the largest home underdog by any team with a winning record since 2007. Buffalo is the second team in the last 40 seasons to be at least a 12-point road favorite over a team with a winning record, joining 2007 New England -- which did it twice.

Moody's pick: Bills 30, Jets 16

Walder's pick: Bills 31, Jets 13

The Jets are coming off a tough loss to the Patriots in which the offense was bad. Zach Wilson has to pick up his play. The Bills can roll up a big number on offense, which they will do against the Jets defense. The Jets won't be able to keep up. Buffalo keeps it going. 

Pick: Bills 37, Jets 23

The air leaked out of the Jets' sails last week, when the Patriots snapped the team's four-game winning streak and Zach Wilson threw three interceptions, dropping his quarterback rating to the second-worst in the league. James Robinson, acquired from Jacksonville to replace the injured running back Breece Hall, carried the ball for only 17 total yards. The market didn't like what it saw, and is giving the Jets two touchdowns against a Bills team that looks Super Bowl-bound.

The Bills had no problem covering the 14-point spread against the Steelers in Week 5 at home, but last week against the Packers they failed to cover the 10.5-point spread by a half point. Double-digit spreads are risky business in the N.F.L., especially with the favorite on the road.

Pick: Jets +13

The Bills are heavy road favorites against the Jets, who have double-digit losses at home to AFC playoff contenders Baltimore and Cincinnati. The bad news? Buffalo is 2-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, and Allen has won his last four starts against New York. The Bills continue their impressive season. 

Pick: Bills 34, Jets 18


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